There are too many factors to tease out what's going on at any given moment. There may be upward pressure from what's happening in equity markets and demand for bitcoin as a vehicle currency[1] to get ether, and there may be downward pressure because of a possible hard fork as well as the outage of a major exchange.<p>If you really knew what caused what with the bitcoin price, that'd be really special information and you'd be a very special person.<p>You can make your best guesses as to which forces will dominate. And you can be wrong.<p>These dynamics change as the scope changes.<p>[1] <a href="http://www.answers.com/Q/What_is_a_vehicle_currency" rel="nofollow">http://www.answers.com/Q/What_is_a_vehicle_currency</a>
Bitcoin is so thinly traded that it's hard to say anything useful on price movements and outside events.<p>Look at the spam attack - Bitcoin was all but unusable, and the price went <i>up</i>.
I am not talking about a temporary flashcrash. People used to think of Bitcoin as a safe heaven when else goes downhill. Just like gold. I don't think that's the case anymore.
I thought bitcoin went up on hype, down on fear. Opening up China markets, for example pushed the price up to over $1000. Then that hype died, along with MtGox and here we are.