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Is The Hot Hand Fallacy A Fallacy?

36 pointsby dmvaldmanover 9 years ago

4 comments

dclowd9901over 9 years ago
Well timed, this article. I just got back from a trip to Vegas. I kno intrinsically that my chances of winning from one deal to another at a blackjack table are equal (card counting notwithstanding). And yet I can&#x27;t deny that there were times when I was &quot;hot.&quot; Of course you&#x27;ll occasionally win a few times in a row, but it seemed to change with dealers and new shuffles.<p>About the only thing I could attribute it to was my own change of pace and self awareness. If I was hot, I might hit out of confidence without second guessing myself. Incidentally, this is what the dealer will also do, only they do it under the guise of requirement.
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gfunk911over 9 years ago
A study found there is a mild hot hand effect in the NBA, but players who&#x27;ve made several shots in a row and guarded more closely by the defense, negating the effect. As n example, If a player hits 2 50% shots in a row, his next shot will be a 45% shot, which he will hit at a 47% clip
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cLeEOGPwover 9 years ago
The fallacy here is in the definition of random.
mannykannotover 9 years ago
Here is Stephen Jay Gould on Joe DiMaggio&#x27;s great 1941 hitting streak: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nybooks.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;archives&#x2F;1988&#x2F;aug&#x2F;18&#x2F;the-streak-of-streaks&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nybooks.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;archives&#x2F;1988&#x2F;aug&#x2F;18&#x2F;the-str...</a>