Part of the problem is that Apple and Google will steal any successful idea and incorporate it into the OS. Categories that could be thriving competitive markets are subsumed and the category killed. Huge potential markets like notes, calendar, voice recording, video conferencing, fitness tracking, game leaderboard/achievements. Even little utilities like flashlight. Some categories are outright prohibited, like phone apps or app stores on iPhone.<p>Basically the game is rigged, apps are just a testing ground for ideas that Google and Apple can ripoff at their will. If you're extremely successful and lucky the best you can hope for is an acquihire. But usually they just steal the idea and kill the market.
I'm not sure if I would call it a mobile "downturn" since mobile is here to stay and may already be more important than desktop. I only see mobile growing, especially with huge numbers of people still to get online via smartphones in India and China. So mobile for sure has a great future ahead. However, there definitely seems to be a maturation of mobile. It's no longer the great "gold rush" that it was back in 2008-2010. It's much more difficult to get traction on native apps if you're starting out, and even if you have a successful app there isn't as much growth in new users as there was prior.<p>I think one sign of mobile's maturation is that people now see mobile as part of a bigger integrated picture of distribution. For example, it's essential (more than ever) to have a strong strategy to be on mobile, on desktop, and in social channels. I think this makes it more challenging for small startups since they typically don't have the manpower to do everything well. So you've got to prioritize and go with what gives you the most bang for your buck. Sometimes it's mobile; sometimes it's desktop; sometimes it's social.
Good, good, good.<p>I know that he is talking about mobile apps as a business rather than the end user experience, but I am disliking mobile apps from a user experience more and more.<p>I access Twitter and Facebook on my Android Note 4 via their web apps - I like the user experience just fine, thank you, and I don't worry as much about giving mobile apps permissions that I don't think they need. I also logoff after using the web versions of Twitter and Facebook. Maybe with finer grained access controls in Android version 6 I might change my mind but probably not.<p>On my iPad, I find it much nicer reading GMail using the browser (not mobile) version of the web app, including access to the calendar. Use the apps: no thanks.<p>Web HTML 5 standards are fantastic - let's use them.
<i>"i can’t think of many consumer facing mobile apps that have gained massive traction and sustained it in the past three
years. can you?"</i><p>Are there consumer facing web sites that have gained massive traction and sustained it in the past three years?<p>Is the problem really mobile specific or is it just that consumer space has become much harder in general as Facebook and messaging juggernauts capture a lion share of people's attention.<p>In 2005-2010, when social media was still young, there were a lot of cheap or even free marketing and distribution tactics that were not oversaturated, but now as the new medium has matured a bit, and even less nimble players start to understand the game, you need huge ad budgets to capture attention of consumers.
mobile and mobile apps are just an access point. You still have to build something people want. the fact you have an app buys you nothing itself (though maybe it used to back in the early days of the app store).
><i>The funny thing about all of this is that I don’t see any shortage of entrepreneurs walking into our offices with plans to build and launch consumer facing mobile apps.</i><p>This is the interesting thing to me. I tried to explain this to some friends who wanted to do something and they immediately wanted to submit themselves to the walled gardens… well, I'll watch them try, I could be wrong, and that's like Fred and their kindred that continue to let such people in the building… now I find that phenomena interesting as well and wonder why?