I've had my eye on Lagos for about 12 years but never been adventurous enough to take the investment plunge. My logic for it is more based in how I, as a mostly anti-capitalist* thinks capital works.<p>The trick for me is whether, like China, Nigeria will grow its own industry, or like say, Bangladesh, where the long-term prospects continue to be mostly external exploitation.<p>This depends on so many things, such as how property and capital are treated culturally, whether there's a strong entrepreneurial or self-directed narrative.<p>Then there's the possibility that the investments themselves may not be honored. There's been a history of countries electing leaders that kick out foreign investors and seize the land, factories, and industries.<p>This is especially an issue, because I'd expect return in a Lagos investment, if it were to come, to be big but on a 5-15 year scale, not 12-18 month. I think I've got only 1 holding at most, in my portfolio that I've had for 15 years. Committing to Lagos for that time period just sounds like a trip to Vegas. In the world of investment, I'm on the 80% 2nd wave on this for sure.<p>I really want Lagos to succeed, but I have too much internal FUD about it to put my money where my mouth is.<p>* "Anti-capitalism" here is meant to mean that I am skeptical and overly-pessimistic of the systemic process of capitalism and view it as an unstable, irresponsible, and unfair system. I think most of the promises are a particular kind of fiction and invest according to my perception of the reality. My portfolio return is within a std dev of the s&p ... so no magic here.