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More Apple Car Thoughts: Money, Design UI, Distribution

35 pointsby subnaughtover 9 years ago

8 comments

Alohaover 9 years ago
If I were producing a car, I&#x27;d look into vehicle as a service.<p>Which means, one monthly price, a lease like object (but without mileage limits), insurance and any maintenance is included, and when the period over (say 24 months), you can return it or trade it in on a new model for a small fee. In a smart world, the cars wouldn&#x27;t even need to be totally new, they could go thru a re-manufacturing process to replace most wearable components (like the interior, tires, and possibly repainting).<p>Apple does two things really well, it makes very pretty products, but it also makes products that are generally less complex in use. The most complex part about automobile ownership is the purchase process (and insurance too), if you can remove the complexity, you can make a much better customer experience.
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LukaAlover 9 years ago
From one point of view I don&#x27;t buy in the skepticism surrounding an Apple Car. As many issue could exist, and this article present a long list, Apple has the resources and the capabilities to overcome them.<p>The problem for Apple right now is that is so huge that any business idea is so small in scale that doesn&#x27;t move the needle. I mean a 1 billion dollar idea is a great pitch, but for Apple is less the 0.5% in revenue, doesn&#x27;t make the board level.<p>From this point of view there are very few industry where you could venture with such a huge scale. The automotive industry is one of them and appears to be ready for disruption. The problem as mentioned in the article is the incredibly low margin. I don&#x27;t believe you could cut a lot on the cost of production, years of experience have optimized the process an the material that get into a car is that much, you could reduce them by a lot without impacting safety. Apple could try to put a premium on their car, and the margin on ultra-high premium car (Ferrari, Lamborghini...) are higher than Apple&#x27;s margin. But the price is so high that the revenue is razor thin. The point is, a 30% premium on a device that costs on average 400$ is 120$, doesn&#x27;t reduce the buyers pool by a lot. A 30% premium on a 20K car is 6K, it change a lot. And if you go in the premium segment is even more.<p>Final consideration, maybe the price Apple is aiming are not electric car but direct competition with Google&#x27;s self-driving car. Or if you want car as-a-service. It is something not totally in Apple&#x27;s DNA but it could provide hefty profit margins. Could be that the release date is 2029 and not 2019?
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paulsutterover 9 years ago
Good insight into entering the car business. But he missed the only thing that matters.<p>Apple&#x27;s car must be centered around self-driving, or it wont be relevant. Tesla&#x27;s Autopilot represents an automotive phase change[1]. A car without autopilot is like using a fax machine instead of an iPhone.<p>[1] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;jalopnik.com&#x2F;teslas-autopilot-system-is-awesome-and-creepy-and-a-sig-1736573089" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;jalopnik.com&#x2F;teslas-autopilot-system-is-awesome-and-c...</a>
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OopsCriticalityover 9 years ago
This car stuff still doesn&#x27;t make sense to me.<p>One big thing I don&#x27;t understand about these Apple car rumors is what is Apple supposed to be doing that current automotive groups are not? If you&#x27;re new to a product area, building a car using CMs (makes sense) with subsystems sourced from the CM or outside suppliers (also makes sense), where&#x27;s the je ne sais quoi that makes the Apple car compelling over other options? How can you have an advantage over the established manufacturers, if you&#x27;re sourcing parts&#x2F;knowledge (e.g., BMW&#x27;s nifty CFRP material) from your competition? What&#x27;s the sustainable competitive advantage?<p>An obvious answer would seem to be design, but I don&#x27;t buy that Apple producing a better UI than the current car manufacturers is fait accompli. On infotainment, CarPlay is pretty frustrating to use, to the point that I question if anyone from Apple has actually used it while driving: legibility is awful (especially for Maps), Siri doesn&#x27;t work well in the noisy car environment as a primary navigation tool, and touch operation takes too much eye attention. Some of the usability failures are due to current Apple styling choices (e.g., fonts that are too thin), but many are (as I see it) due to the unsuitability of the Apple multitouch UI paradigm for the car. For comparison, I&#x27;d rate both Chrysler&#x27;s UConnect and BMW&#x27;s iDrive as superior in usability. I have no doubt that CarPlay can be improved (e.g., physical jog wheels), but I see those improvements as teaching away from the Apple&#x27;s UI paradigm and towards the existing competitors in the auto world. As to interior or exterior design, I also remain skeptical: Apple tends to pick materials that don&#x27;t wear well in use, and we&#x27;re talking about a product that will have far longer lifecycle than anything in the current Apple lineup. I&#x27;m sure Apple could produce something that looks nice, but plenty of marques make nice looking cars. Nice appearance for cars is commoditized.<p>Apple&#x27;s current supply chain and manufacturing processes are a hell of an advantage in consumer electronics, but there would seem to be very little overlap with automotive. I guess that applies broadly too, there seems to be so little overlap with Apple&#x27;s current corporate experience and advantages in consumer electronics and the automotive arena.<p>edit: Also, JLG&#x27;s point on maintenance is poppycock. Electric cars may have <i>reduced</i> maintenance, but to suggest that tires and wiper blades are all one has to worry about is plain wrong. Part of the product lifecycle considerations includes recalls, e.g., Takata airbags.
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mkempeover 9 years ago
Here&#x27;s one way to look at it: Tim Cook&#x27;s deep expertise is in logistics, exclusive supplies, and large-scale production runs.<p>What industry has been stagnating, is hence most ripe for re-invention, and heavily involves problems in Cook&#x27;s favorite domain?<p>While Steve Jobs was passionate about computers as wheels for the mind and about gestalt esthetics, Tim Cook is passionate about supply lines. Different people, distinct ambitions.
brazzledazzleover 9 years ago
I can&#x27;t imagine this is the case, but what if they&#x27;re building an OS&#x2F;UI&#x2F;experience that car manufacturers would build into their vehicles? That would go against everything they&#x27;ve ever done but would be easier and would remove them from direct liability (depending on what features it offered). 30% on a car might be difficult for even Apple to pull off but 30% on a $2-5K option would probably be something most people would spring for. I imagine it would put Google in a tough position, even if they had superior features (like better self-driving).
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csoursover 9 years ago
A better question than what could Apple do better (everything [1]), is WHY would Apple enter the market?<p>Answer: The automobile is the ultimate mobile platform.<p>What can I do with the ultimate mobile platform? Keep my users connected. Keep my users entertained. Keep my users happy. Remove inconvenient interactions with the outside world (tolls, drive throughs, parking, driving...).<p>How can I extract value from the ultimate mobile platform? Sell (or lease) the platform. Sell advertisements. Collect a percent of each interaction with the outside world. YOU DON&#x27;T HAVE TO PICK JUST ONE! You can mix and match depending on the application.<p>---<p>Manufacturing ONE car is not particularly difficult. Designing ONE car is a little complicated. Selling ONE car is pretty easy.<p>Manufacturing vehicles at scale is hideously complicated[2]. A small example using product volume alone: a MacBook Pro is 1770.6 cm3; the Frunk of a Tesla is 150079 cm3 - you can fit almost 85 Macbooks into one of the smaller storage areas on the vehicle.<p>85 MacBooks cost in the same ballpark as one Tesla.<p>You can compare almost any other stats and get the same picture.<p>---<p>1. What&#x27;s the biggest room in the Universe? The room for improvement.<p>2. I used to work in IT for Automotive Manufacturing. &quot;We have all the problems of a major theme park and a major zoo&quot;, and we have to make cars too!
marpstarover 9 years ago
all I want in life is for my car to have Apple Pay so that I can go through the McDonald&#x27;s drive-thru and have to do nothing but order my food. bonus if it knows my order ahead of time because I always get the same thing and I have to say nothing at all.
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