TE
TechEcho
Home24h TopNewestBestAskShowJobs
GitHubTwitter
Home

TechEcho

A tech news platform built with Next.js, providing global tech news and discussions.

GitHubTwitter

Home

HomeNewestBestAskShowJobs

Resources

HackerNews APIOriginal HackerNewsNext.js

© 2025 TechEcho. All rights reserved.

How the Powerball rules were tweaked to make the game an even bigger ripoff

108 pointsby paradygmover 9 years ago

23 comments

jccalhounover 9 years ago
I found this statistic to be the most interesting: &quot;In 1999, researchers at Duke University reported that American households spent an average of $162 per year on lottery tickets, but low-income households spent $289 and those with less than $10,000 in income spent $597. Higher lottery purchases also were associated with lower educational attainment and ethnic minorities.&quot;<p>I didn&#x27;t find the fact that poorer people were more likely to play surprising but just how much more. Nor would I have guessed that the overall average was anywhere near $162 a year. I don&#x27;t think I&#x27;ve spend that much on the lottery in my 20+ years of being old enough to play the lottery.
评论 #10895779 未加载
评论 #10895465 未加载
评论 #10896003 未加载
评论 #10895187 未加载
Spooky23over 9 years ago
I find it puzzling that the reaction to the lottery here on HN and among many tech people I know is very different to say... fantasy sports betting.<p>With sports betting, not only do you have the prospect of wasting lots of time, but you end up getting hooked to obsessive watching of ESPN and tracking player stats, wasting lots of time. With lotto, I drop $2 and I&#x27;m done.<p>Yet the consensus seems to be the the millions of people buying lotto tickets are all rubes, but the folks flouting the law and running bookmaking operations on the internet are disrupting staid government regulation?
评论 #10895201 未加载
评论 #10895196 未加载
评论 #10895480 未加载
评论 #10895489 未加载
评论 #10895798 未加载
评论 #10896193 未加载
评论 #10895381 未加载
评论 #10895463 未加载
评论 #10895714 未加载
评论 #10895216 未加载
评论 #10895220 未加载
评论 #10898713 未加载
评论 #10895177 未加载
dsp1234over 9 years ago
(all of this is based on an idea from another poster in a different thread, which I cannot find at the moment)<p>odds of winning: 1 in 292,200,000 (approx)<p>miles between LA and NYC: 2,800 (approx)<p>feet in a mile: 5,280<p>inches in a foot: 12<p>US dimes in an inch: 1.4 (approx)<p>2800 miles * 5280 feet * 12 inches * 1.4 dimes = 248,371,200 &quot;dimes&quot; between LA and NYC<p>Summary:<p>Assume that someone drove from LA to NYC at stopped at any point of their choosing along the way and threw a dime onto the ground. Starting from LA you drive the same route, you have better odds of stopping your car at the exact spot that that person dropped their dime than you do of winning this Jackpot.<p>With all the usual caveats about not being evenly distributed. I find this a little easier to explain to people, such that they can reasonably understand that it&#x27;s not just &quot;unlikely&quot;. Stuff like 10 times as likely to be hit by a meteorite or other super rare events just doesn&#x27;t seem to get the point across as well. It&#x27;s also easier to break it down into smaller pieces (throw dimes on the ground and have people try to pick the right one, guess a mile marker just in Colorado, etc)
评论 #10897595 未加载
评论 #10897621 未加载
strictneinover 9 years ago
For the curious, at the current jackpot level, with a cash lump sum payout of $930 million, the expected average return on a $2 ticket is $3.50.<p>Unfortunately, that&#x27;s before tax. After tax (45% for estimation purposes, this will vary by state) it&#x27;s $1.93. After taxes, the lump sum payout would need to be around $970 million for it to average a $2 payout on a $2 ticket.<p>This doesn&#x27;t include the possibility of you splitting the money with another winner, but it also doesn&#x27;t include the additional value of the money if you invested it wisely, etc.
评论 #10895145 未加载
评论 #10895158 未加载
评论 #10895127 未加载
评论 #10897151 未加载
评论 #10895251 未加载
评论 #10895037 未加载
评论 #10895107 未加载
评论 #10895217 未加载
评论 #10895139 未加载
评论 #10896710 未加载
martinkoover 9 years ago
Saying the game is a bigger ripoff after odds change without discussing changes to expected values and then going on to say:<p>&gt; people don&#x27;t understand odds<p>Is quite ironic.
gueloover 9 years ago
As a kid in the 80s I wrote a program in Basic to randomly pick lottery numbers and print them as fast as it could and stop when it matched a predefined number.<p>Watching the program spin for hours disabused me of any notion that the lottery could be won. It was a good way to get a feel for the ridiculous odds involved and to this day I&#x27;ve never felt tempted to play the lottery.
评论 #10896200 未加载
ceejayozover 9 years ago
&quot;Dec. 23, 2015: A prominent lottery official who has run the Powerball game since its inception was quietly removed from his 28-year post leading the Multi-State Lottery Association after a jackpot-fixing scandal inside his organization had spread, according to a document obtained by The Associated Press.&quot;<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;bigstory.ap.org&#x2F;article&#x2F;63f14f1932164832a7f571d0c1b4e967&#x2F;apnewsbreak-key-lottery-leader-out-amid-jackpot-fixing-case" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;bigstory.ap.org&#x2F;article&#x2F;63f14f1932164832a7f571d0c1b4e...</a><p>Certainly interesting timing.
评论 #10895428 未加载
评论 #10894907 未加载
grandalfover 9 years ago
<i>Experts aren&#x27;t entirely sure why &quot;those who can least afford it play the most,&quot; as German sociologists asked in a 2013 paper. The pessimistic, and perhaps condescending, view is that the poor and less-educated don&#x27;t have the intellectual gifts to appraise the odds, but middle-class and rich people play the lottery too.</i><p>This perspective is deeply flawed. If humans obeyed a risk adjusted rate of return strategy and rationally discounted for the future, human behavior across the board would be profoundly different. The lottery is only one example of many.<p>Any portfolio of early stage startups is destined to perform worse than the S&amp;P500, as is any portfolio of series A startups. As is any portfolio of lottery tickets... but there is always that winning ticket, that Facebook, that Google.<p>There have been very few big homerun startups. The rest would fail to lift the average above the S&amp;P.<p>In an environment where the future seems fairly certain (poverty, affluence, whatever) there is lots to be gained by rolling the dice and experiencing a bit of risk. Lotto is less fun than a startup, but it scratches the same itch. It lets you ride the emotional roller coaster and imagine the greatness that will one day be yours.<p>Startups are a superior version of lotto because you get to be the CEO or the CTO and someone invests their money to help you build a team and get traction, etc. So your bet with destiny is being underwritten by others. You get advisors, board members, and metrics, and essentially spread the thrill of the tumbling balls across however long your runway lasts. The superiority of startups is why young affluent people do them, and why poor people play lotto.<p>The urge to take on risk is what got humans onto ships, rockets, and bathyspheres. It&#x27;s the unique human ability to reason probabilistically and take a leap, to undertake a calculated risk, and to engage in an exciting dance with destiny.<p>For centuries and in pre-enlightenment times, people believed that all of life was fated and that one&#x27;s lot was destined from birth.<p>When we appreciate the emotional thrill of risk we start to see that it&#x27;s part of the glorious awakening of the human sprit birthed in the enlightenment. When a dejected person puts his last quarter into a slot machine, we are not seeing hopelessness, we are seeing hope in its most unfettered form. Even if he loses that person will pick himself up and dust off and be ready to try again, for fate is on his side. This stands in stark contrast with the previous worldview in which the quarter would be saved and a prayer offered up, which has far smaller odds of success than the slot machine.
评论 #10895485 未加载
评论 #10899694 未加载
ForHackernewsover 9 years ago
Counterpoint: The true value of a lotto ticket is dreaming about hitting the jackpot. Bigger, less winnable jackpots increase the dream-value of the tickets.
评论 #10894814 未加载
评论 #10895149 未加载
评论 #10894956 未加载
评论 #10895067 未加载
评论 #10894698 未加载
CIPHERSTONEover 9 years ago
&quot;Never tell me the odds!&quot; -Han Solo
评论 #10895841 未加载
kaonashiover 9 years ago
They did this so that the lottery overall was less of a regressive tax on the poor. It&#x27;s not a rip-off at all, it&#x27;s actually much fairer. We desperately need something similar with our tax code as a whole.
评论 #10897890 未加载
评论 #10897768 未加载
sleepychuover 9 years ago
How on earth have they arrived at odds which aren&#x27;t an integer result for a lottery? <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.trbimg.com&#x2F;img-56954025&#x2F;turbine&#x2F;la-fi-mh-powerball-rules-were-tweaked-20160112-002&#x2F;750&#x2F;750x422" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.trbimg.com&#x2F;img-56954025&#x2F;turbine&#x2F;la-fi-mh-powerbal...</a>
评论 #10897322 未加载
评论 #10897335 未加载
评论 #10897735 未加载
bnegreveover 9 years ago
&gt; <i>Experts aren&#x27;t entirely sure why &quot;those who can least afford it play the most,</i><p>Is this that irrational?<p>With 1000 trials, probability of winning at least one time is 3*10^-6 which is low.<p>But what are the odds of becoming a billionaire given that your annual income is below $10,000?
评论 #10895901 未加载
评论 #10897321 未加载
ck2over 9 years ago
By the way, as of Wednesday morning, Powerball reports &quot;only&quot; 85% of all number combinations have been sold.<p>So still a 15% chance no-one wins.
emehrkayover 9 years ago
I spent almost 300k in that simulator and only won ~7k. I thought I&#x27;d hit big. I still put up 2 bucks for tonight though :(<p>Anyway, the cheeky FAQ on the PowerBall site is worth money down the drain <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.powerball.com&#x2F;pb_contact.asp#odds" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.powerball.com&#x2F;pb_contact.asp#odds</a>
georgecmuover 9 years ago
Off-topic question:<p>Here&#x27;s a past (yesterday&#x27;s) submission: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=10891465" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=10891465</a><p>Linked URLs are identical, so how did it pass the &#x27;previously submitted&#x27; filter?
mcintyre1994over 9 years ago
This is interesting because the UK lottery made a very similar change, with the same effect - higher odds of winning any prize, lower odds of winning. They also doubled the entry price to £2.<p>They changed the numbers to choose from 1-49 to 1-59, and added a prize for matching any 2 (apparently 1 in 10.3 odds) of a free lucky dip (ie another play).<p>It&#x27;d be interesting to know the distribution of people&#x27;s picks now - I know that my parents use the same numbers they always have, all in the 1-49 range. Obviously lucky dips are more fair, I&#x27;m not sure which is more common though.
jdmichalover 9 years ago
It&#x27;s mentioned that some states were looking at dropping Powerball because the jackpots were won <i>too</i> often and didn&#x27;t grow big enough to generate excitement. Maybe this points to the fact that people are playing -- and paying -- for the excitement? After all, if your goal was to actually win the jackpot, it seems like you&#x27;d be one of the ones playing every week. But there obviously weren&#x27;t enough of those people to keep the game going.
jfoutzover 9 years ago
There will likely be a winner, or multiple winners today. If not, it&#x27;ll be +EV to play in the next drawing, and might be already.<p>It&#x27;s $2 * 292M, $584M minimum payout, for the odds to be in your favor. Expected payout is now up to $930 * (1 - 0.395), so $562M after federal taxes. Depends on state taxes, and if the estimate is a little low, only about $20M short this morning.
评论 #10895079 未加载
评论 #10895017 未加载
mikestewover 9 years ago
If someone finally wins, the best part will be a temporary moratorium on people who think themselves clever telling me how I won&#x27;t win. Yes, the odds are clearly published and I can do basic math, but I bought a few tickets anyway. Now shut up about it. Even NPR isn&#x27;t immune, as evidenced while I listened on the ride to work yesterday. YES, I KNOW!
tgbover 9 years ago
So why didn&#x27;t they decrease the odds even further? The change of a factor of two or so doesn&#x27;t seem like much and I don&#x27;t see a real downside until it actually gets to the point where everyone &#x27;knows&#x27; that winning is actually impossible since no one does it.
tribuneover 9 years ago
Larger jackpots will sell more tickets. When half the country is buying tickets for a historic jackpot, Powerball (and therefore the States) will take in much more money than if this same jackpot was split over several drawings.
corbinpageover 9 years ago
Personally, I see the lottery as an opt-in tax on hope geared towards the poor.
评论 #10897387 未加载