Tesla has proven that electric cars can be fundamentally superior to their ICE counterparts in nearly all respects, except for cost (for now) and the speed to refuel (which is made moot by the convenience of refueling from home if you have garage access).<p>The trend toward EVs despite low gas prices should be no more baffling than the trend toward smartphones despite low flip-phone prices.
Pop Quiz:<p>Did sales of electric cars grow or decrease in 2015 compared to 2014. Answer: <a href="http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" rel="nofollow">http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/</a><p>What about sales of ICEs? <a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/202980/us-auto-sales-hit-alltime-high-in-2015-what-about-2016" rel="nofollow">http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/202980/us-auto-sales-hit-all...</a><p>So if overall car sales are up by EV sales are down, tell me why we are so bullish on EVs?
> “The government is regulating what automakers have to produce to meet new standards, but it isn’t what consumers want to buy,” said Michelle Krebs, an analyst with the firm Autotrader.<p>Why doesn't the fed just use higher taxes on gas to disincentivize gas guzzlers, and let the market take care of the rest?<p>US gas prices are ridiculously low compared to most of the developed world.
Gas and oil will not be cheap forever. Now it goes down but when investors or governments want to rise its price, it can be easily changed. Just make some "noises" or "predictions" and the price will be affected.<p>Besides, electric cars have zero road emission. Drivers will not see the exhaust emissions by themselves. Electric cars shifted the emissions to the power plant so drivers will have less feelings about their contribution to global warming.
Cars are going to get much more expensive with these fuel efficiency mandates and the affluent will drive electrics, while everyone else will drive old cars.<p>We have ever increasing crashworthiness requirements, which make cars heavier, which increases car weight. We have a ratcheting fuel efficiency mandate. The convergence of these two pushes for lighter, more crashworthy cars, which means expensive materials. Electric cars may be price competitive very soon as prices for batteries fall, and as prices for gasoline cars increase.<p>However, these regulations, while well meaning, will be counter-productive. People simply can't afford new cars anymore and are driving old cars much longer. We have a lot of 1990's engines out there in fairly reliable cars, and these emit far more pollution than a modern car, nevermind the fuel efficiency.
Federal and State governments are literally paying people to buy plug-in electric vehicles.<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_the_United_States#Government_support" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_t...</a>
It was very kind of Saudi Arabia to allow us to develop so much oil extraction technology at $100 and now teach us how to use that new technology profitably at $35.<p>I'm not exactly a fan of fracking and tar sand extraction, but it is quite an achievement.
Move to electric vehicles and produce the electricity needed by burning fossil fuel in large scale regional plants with higher efficiency, where it is also economic to invest in filter systems to reduce pollution.
Other than, well we are seeing the results of two to as many of five years of the pipeline coming out finally. It isn't like they can plan for cheap gas. GM would know this best with the second generation Volt landing when gas prices were already on their way down.<p>The real opportunity here isn't for the automakers, it is for the Congress to change the law with regards to fuel taxes so as to set a floor price on fuel to encourage the shift to more economical vehicles; not necessarily full ev. A tax system could be set to provide a floor and a ceiling - meaning if the product price got to high the tax would decrease a bit to compensate<p>Still, what did you expect from the big companies in the face of the fleet mileage requirements? You cannot do that without at least hybridization. Finally, with GM, did anyone really expect them to cede the everyday car buyer market when it came to electrics. GM even has the production capacity to make the cars when people want them
Electric cars trade pump prices for grid prices. In the long run, that should make sense whether there's an oil glut or not, since oil should affect prices in both columns.[0]<p>Hybrids trade pump prices for cost of additional (non-oil-based) components. That's going to be a better trade when pump prices are high. It's more contingent.<p>So... low oil prices could mean we should see more electrics, but fewer hybrids.<p>[0] Should, hasn't yet, I don't know why. So far lower oil costs are reflected in transportation fuel, but not in household electricity costs.[1]
Maybe because the grid just takes a really long time to shift its energy portfolio? Maybe I'm just completely wrong...<p>[1] <a href="http://www.eia.gov/pressroom/presentations/sieminski_02262015_csis.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.eia.gov/pressroom/presentations/sieminski_0226201...</a> : slide 11.<p>[2] Yes, embedded footnotes. And unreferenced footnotes. Madness.
Now if the government would just raise the fuel tax, we'd really be in business. Start making up for the drop in prices and incentivize electric vehicles on the consumer side as well.