I think the more important step is that SpaceX has broken the "credibility ceiling" for private space ventures. When they started competing for the CRS and Commercial Crew contracts a number of important voices in Congress were amused but not convinced, and when it became clear they were going to deliver something on their promise they actively campaigned against such "risky" ventures, and trusting someone other than NASA & the original space contracting collective (Lockheed, Boeing, Aerojet, Etc.) with the ability to actually launch. There were the incredibly bogus "export licenses" which were code for regulating launches, there were outsized estimates of risks, amazing requirements for "proof" of competency. But now we're on the other side of that cloud and SpaceX, Orbital, and perhaps soon Blue Origin will be part of the "club". Pretty exciting times for the new kids, scary as heck for the previous club members (like ULA).
This is a bit off-topic, but the section on asteroid mining reminded me to recommend 'The Expanse' on Syfy: <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3230854/" rel="nofollow">http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3230854/</a>
> In fact, if Earth were 50 percent larger, with a correspondingly stronger gravitational pull, no form of chemical propulsion would contain enough energy to launch a spacecraft into orbit.<p>This is quite a strange statement. Not even with multiple stages? Not even Saturn-V would be able to lift a cubesat - with necessary extra stages? I'd like to see numbers which support that.
Being in the midst of all of this, I can vouch for the palpable excitement within the industry: at least if you stay away from talking to traditional prime contractors. There's a real sense that disruption is right around the corner. The biggest problem is that there have been no significant exits to prove investors right. This makes it difficult to raise capital.<p>Also, traditionally, external capital has sought out downstream opportunities. We've been focussing on upstream tech and it's much harder to prove the case given the long time horizon.<p>I've seen some incredible applications being pitched, but I think the real test will be whether they are able to generate significant exits. I, for one, hope that the next five years spells a period of immense productivity in the sector, generating profitability all along the value chain. If we're able to ride that wave, I think that there are many more applications that will pop up that make use of space infrastructure.
I had expected more due-diligence before publishing the article by HBS - sadly they have included a promising piece on Escape Dynamics without bothering to check that it has already closed down! <a href="http://escapedynamics.com/" rel="nofollow">http://escapedynamics.com/</a>