Just had some _interesting_ conversation with my barber today and she was telling how quite a few bankers were telling her that "be prepared for 2017". Not really into gossips and speculations, but if somebody has some links to articles/books or interviews by respected sources/analysts, it would be great if you could share it here.<p>Cheers.
We have been out of recession (in the USA) since '08, which historically is a long time.<p>Furthermore, we are at full employment, with unemployment at 4.7%.<p>So we certainly could see the end of this business cycle soon. That alone is not a cause for concern, but I am worried about the general lack of ammunition available to central banks in the eventurbine they need to stimulate the economy.
Have a look: <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-06/morgan-stanleys-dour-sp500-outlook-5-possible-upside-vs-27-downside" rel="nofollow">http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-06/morgan-stanleys-dou...</a>
and: <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-04/when-will-recession-start-deutsche-banks-disturbing-answer" rel="nofollow">http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-04/when-will-recession...</a>
I highly doubt that this kind of information hits public sources before the said phenomenon actually starts to occur. I mean Ron Paulson wouldn't have made $15 billion shorting real estate, if everyone in 2007 knew about the then impending housing crisis.<p>That said, the debt to GDP ratio of most developed countries is at some of the highest levels ever seen. That could be an issue but am not sure if it's big enough to cause a recession.
From casual observation of life, I've noticed an economic recession happens about once every 10-ish years, so the next one should come by 2020. I've been saving quite a bit, so I can buy everything when everyone else is panicking, if my job is reasonably secure.