This was a long anticipated but still powerful ruling. The only surprise was maybe Itu Aba (太平島) being ruled to not be an island.<p>The court was particularly clear on rejecting the nine-dash line and China's claims of historic waters.<p>As much as China will say it ignores this ruling, it absolutely puts pressure on China and constricts the language it will be able to use when discussing disputes in the South China Sea. China has particularly relied on claims of historic waters, which will diplomatically make for some extremely awkward press statements for China now.<p>This may force China into some face-saving agreements, so that it continues to appear strong at home where it has made this into an issue of nationalism, but internationally may try to consolidate what it does hold.<p>Another likely option is China may try to create a ADIZ over the South China Sea like it did in the East China Sea (and use its somewhat perverted interpretation of when an ADIZ applies), with the idea that if its interests in the sea have been denied, it can try to control the air.<p>I expect freedom of navigation transits may increase now and with greater certainty, both from the US and from other countries including Japan and Australia, now that we know what features are entitled to a 12-mile territorial sea and which ones are not (due to being submerged at high tide).<p>I'm optimistic after some initial saber rattling that this may actually lead to a reduction in tensions in the South China Sea, but that is mostly up to China now at this point.
Well, there is a precedent Nicaragua v. United States where the United States just blatantly ignores the international court's ruling against it, and vetoes any attempt of enforcement by the Security Council. China is also a permanent member, so they will do just the same.
An interesting bit: China created a half-mile square terrain model of a disputed region with India that was discovered in 2006[1].<p>1. <a href="http://www.gearthblog.com/blog/archives/2006/07/huge_scale_mode.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.gearthblog.com/blog/archives/2006/07/huge_scale_m...</a>
There is a nice multimedia article in NY times about this:
<a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12078612" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12078612</a>
I am no geopolitical expert, but the Chinese seemed to be playing with fire. At which point a war will erupt in the South China Sea, especially when those nations won't take it anymore?
...China, which has displayed a willingness to negotiate in many such situations. In just over 60 years, China has gone from 23 land disputes down to just six. In the majority of its settlements, China accepted less than one-half of the territory it originally claimed. [1]<p>1. <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2012/10/territorial_disputes_how_much_of_the_earth_is_claimed_by_multiple_countries_.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/20...</a>
The multimedia article shared by stefap2 is a good one.<p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12078612" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12078612</a><p>What's concerning about this is on the end of the slide, there is a text which says:<p>"The Tribunal in the Hague ruled on Tuesday, July 12, that China's claim was illegal. But it has no power to enforce the decision."<p>Some questions:
1. If that's the case, then what good would the Hague ruling be if it is not going to be enforced?
2. Who should be enforcing the said ruling in this case?
Hardly any surprise.<p>A tiny piece in the massive chess game that is China's rising military dominance and the west's declining ditto.<p>This will play out over decades and is at its heart driven by a Chinese economy that expands faster the west's.
Did they really win though? It also nullifies their claims to many islands.<p>The whole thing about the Spratley islands began with Vietname and the Philippines occupying islands there: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands#Geographic_and_economic_overview" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands#Geographic_and...</a>