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The future is fewer people writing code?

126 pointsby pratap103almost 9 years ago

55 comments

dasil003almost 9 years ago
Non-programmers make this mistake all the time: thinking that the syntax is the hard part of programming.<p>No, the hard part of programming is understanding in very specific and rigid details how to accomplish a task. What the author doesn&#x27;t realize is the enormous amount of processing power, shared culture and empathy that goes into human interaction.<p>Even mighty Google doesn&#x27;t have the compute power or the architecture to replicate this. Until computers can <i>understand</i> humans at a human-level this will not be possible. Several breakthroughs will be necessary, and even still I expect decades&#x2F;centuries before it happens if it even happens. Essentially we&#x27;re talking about the Singularity.
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pmlnralmost 9 years ago
“50 years from now, I can’t imagine people programming as we do today. It just can’t be.&quot;<p>Dear writer, let me introduce you to FORTRAN, COBOL, LISP, or BASIC. These are alive languages, all 50+ years old.<p>Coding didn&#x27;t change much. The languages, the methodologies, the ideas change, but the approach is the same, and whoever thinks this will soon (50 years is not _that_ far) changes, have never had to debug something nasty. Doing that with voice commands in my opinion is significantly harder compared to what we have now.<p>We will have tools, accessible, easy tools; Arduinos and Pis of the future; sure. But it will not replace, nor eliminate or reduce the amount of code written.
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winstonewertalmost 9 years ago
Dear article writer,<p>Natural language sucks, it is amibigious, difficult to manipulate, verbose, and have too many non-functional degrees of freedom. After all, that&#x27;s why mathematics left natural language and adopted the mathematical syntax we have today.<p>Diagrams suck, they are ambigious, difficult to manipulate, verbose, and has too many non-functional degrees of freedom. That&#x27;s why cook books don&#x27;t have diagrams to describe recipies.<p>The syntax will never die, it is the only sensible we have to define programs.
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buckbovaalmost 9 years ago
&gt; To get there, programming tools should first use our language. For instance, to turn a button red, we shouldn’t have to write code. We should just be able to point to the button and select a shade of red.<p>We&#x27;ve had that for over twenty years.
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tribunealmost 9 years ago
&quot;...so why are we having a serious conversation about grooming children to become software developers before they’ve even gone to middle school?&quot;<p>We&#x27;re not, really, but given the pervasiveness of computing technology we&#x27;re recognizing that it&#x27;s important for children to have some formal experience with software design concepts regardless of which career path they choose.<p>I&#x27;m a firm believer that at least some coding ability is beneficial in any profession. It&#x27;s like writing, or vocabulary; you don&#x27;t &quot;need&quot; it for some professions, per se, but being a good writer enhances both your professional and personal life in many ways, so it&#x27;s worthwhile to teach. It&#x27;s much the same with coding.
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maker1138almost 9 years ago
Programming is done in code for the same reason mathematics is done in notation, for specificity.<p>Doing programming in plain English would be just as cumbersome as doing math in plain English.<p>I don&#x27;t think anyone can quite fully imagine the nightmare of trying to program in a recursively enumerable language[1].<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Chomsky_hierarchy" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Chomsky_hierarchy</a>
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codingdavealmost 9 years ago
Some of my coworkers have been using similar concepts to teach K-5 coding in a few school districts for a few years now. And the big, surprising impact has not been about the code, but about the problem solving... I&#x27;m getting the stories second-hand, but apparently the concept of debugging problems becomes so ingrained that they &quot;debug&quot; all their efforts. When they make a mistake in math, they debug their process to fix it. They debug what is wrong with their handwriting to improve it. They think of everything as a problem to be solved, work towards solving it, and are doing wonderfully across all subjects.<p>So the question of whether these kids will be coders as they grow up really doesn&#x27;t seem to be that important of a question -- they are being taught how to succeed at whatever they try. I&#x27;m excited to see these types of programs move forward and become prevalent throughout our educational system.
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mafuyualmost 9 years ago
I think the author is missing the forest for the trees, here. Schools often don&#x27;t have much of a computing curriculum, and these classes are great for improving general programming literacy. And if one kid finds out he really enjoys it when he wouldn&#x27;t normally have through school, that&#x27;s a win. It&#x27;s true that most of them won&#x27;t become programmers, but we don&#x27;t teach biology in high school assuming you won&#x27;t become a biologist, either.
deathcakesalmost 9 years ago
&quot;To add an example for clarity, think of the field of typography — until the Digital Age, typography was a specialized occupation. But with new programs like Microsoft Word coming into existence, typography (e.g. formatting a document, setting the margins, making sure the lettering is appealing, etc.) became something everyone could do easily without much thinking.&quot;<p>Without much thinking pretty much encapsulates what Word did to presentation standards, at least in my experience. Let us never forget WordArt.<p>Part of me always wants to make the argument that these things are difficult, not just because of an abstract syntax and arcane rules, but because these things are genuinely difficult to reason about - attempts to make difficult things easier by papering over the cracks results in a lot of pain for a lot of people. Bits ping off and people are left unable to even begin to solve the problem.<p>However the very, very, obvious flipside of this is that lowering barriers to entry is pretty much always a good thing. It invites unconventional perspectives and novel approaches - how could that be a bad thing? Sure, some people will make crappy things that shouldn&#x27;t have ever existed but by the same token some people will make great things that never would have been without the lowered barriers.
lmmalmost 9 years ago
Coding in a good language already consists of writing about the things you care about, not the things the computer cares about. Text (with a few symbols) turns out to be the best way to express computations, not to a computer but to a human reader&#x2F;maintainer.<p>The future is most professionals writing code as part of their job, just as the present is most professionals writing as part of their job.
mlashcorpalmost 9 years ago
It saddens me that laypeople equate software development to writing code, that&#x27;s like saying an architect just knows how to draw.
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dkopialmost 9 years ago
&quot;The future I imagine is a world in which programming is self-explanatory, where people talk to computers to build software. To get there, programming tools should first use our language.&quot;<p>But is: &quot;For every button on the page that is a &quot;warning&quot; button, replace the background color to red.&quot;<p>Necessarily better than? $(&quot;button.warning&quot;).css(&quot;background-color&quot;, &quot;red&quot;)
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throwaway2016aalmost 9 years ago
I remember going to a mobile conference in the early 2000s and every single vendor there was saying that developing mobile apps using UML was the future. No code, just map out everything in a diagram.<p>Granted a smart phone was unheard of at this point so most mobile apps wouldn&#x27;t even be called apps by today&#x27;s standards.<p>A decade and a half later and mobile developer is a highly skilled _coding_ position.
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Kinnardalmost 9 years ago
&gt; For instance, to turn a button red, we shouldn’t have to write code. We should just be able to point to the button and select a shade of red.<p>Someone is going to have to right the code so that the end-user can just click buttons. So if this future of programmatic interfaces is coming, it&#x27;s going to require more people writing code to build it— not fewer!
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mattnewtonalmost 9 years ago
I don&#x27;t know if I agree with the author since they didn&#x27;t seem to provide any evidence &#x2F; argument for why the future is codeless. They did warn me though that I wouldn&#x27;t be able to understand from my vantage point in Silicon Valley though so maybe other people see the argument? But from my perspective code is only growing without showing signs of abating.
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PaulHoulealmost 9 years ago
Progress happens slow in the short term and fast in the long term.<p>In the 1980s, there was a consensus that &quot;software components&quot; enabled by object orientation were a pipe dream.<p>They were so long as you were using C++ which was barely binary compatible and where you couldn&#x27;t reuse objects in a .so file without also having an .h file. It was awful, not at all a minimal viable product.<p>Then Java came along and a number of other languages that adopted essentially the same model for OO programming such as Python, PHP, Ruby, C#, etc.<p>Now you can cut and paste a few lines of XML into Maven and woohoo... You&#x27;ve incorporated a software component into your system.<p>People bitch that it has to be XML, but the sheer ease of doing so means it is not hard at all to get 100+ dependencies in a project and now the problem is dealing with the problems that come when you have 100+ dependencies.<p>(And of course the same is true with npm and every other language that has similar tools.)<p>Two big themes are: (i) tools that reduce the essential difficulty of software development and (ii) antiprofessionalism in software engineering.<p>Compilers like FORTRAN mean you don&#x27;t need to have the intimacy with the machine you need to write, say, Macro Assembler. That is mainstream, but other technologies, such as logic programming and rules engine are still stillborn. In theory tools like that mean the order of execution does not matter so much so you don&#x27;t need the skill to figure out what order to put the instructions in. Practically they are yet to become vernacular tools that are palatable to programmers and non-programmers. (Anything programmers can&#x27;t stand will be 10x more painful to non-programmers, I can tell you that!)<p>Anti-professionalism is another big theme. Had computers come around 20 years earlier we would probably have a programmer&#x27;s union, licensing and other things that would make a big difference in our lives. As it is, the beef that programmers have is not that we don&#x27;t get paid enough, it is that we are often forced into malpractice by management.
sp527almost 9 years ago
This is a very amusing article because I went in expecting fairly sophisticated arguments about Cloud, PaaS, DevOps, layers of abstraction, higher-level languages&#x2F;paradigms, etc. Perhaps this was naive, given the domain of origin.<p>The irony is that the future probably <i>will</i> enable individual programmers to have an even more outsized ability to create value, and fewer programmers will be necessary to accomplish the same set of tasks. Sadly, cogent arguments about meaningful issues aren&#x27;t exactly TechCrunch&#x27;s forte.
hackgurualmost 9 years ago
There is an upper bound limit for how abstract a general purpose programming language can become. Programming languages mainly exist because of their ability to remove ambiguity. Our natural language on the other hand is very vague. Many people might read the same exact article and interpret it differently. This is natural language&#x27;s great feature. This feature is why a kid, without fully formed thoughts, can learn and use a natural language. Hence I don&#x27;t see a day programming languages will completely fade away. Programs are result of a careful thought process that cristalizes a concept into a process and that process is only complete when you can describe it in an unambiguous language. One may argue that natural languages are capable of being not ambiguous. A subset of a natural language can be used without ambiguity but that is just definition of a programming language. Arguing programming languages will fade away is the same as saying math one day will not be necessary because we can explain all concepts in physics or other sciences in natural language.
ISLalmost 9 years ago
Are there graphical languages that advocates like?<p>The only graphical language that I&#x27;ve encountered professionally is LabVIEW, and I&#x27;ve yet to see an instance&#x2F;programming style where it has been superior for anything but quick prototyping.<p>A language that&#x27;s editable in both flowchart and traditional formats could be very useful, if executed in a way that doesn&#x27;t cripple the traditional side of things.
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whackalmost 9 years ago
The writer presents an ideal vision for the future - one where people can &quot;build software&quot; purely through abstract thought, without needing to know the semantics of specific tools and programming languages.<p>If such a future is possible, that would be great. I would be all for it. But the people who are already in the field, working in the trenches, don&#x27;t think it&#x27;s a realistic vision for the near future. All attempts thus far to produce &quot;layman friendly programming&quot; have been either failures, or relegated to non-functional toys. Hence why we don&#x27;t want to waste <i>our</i> scarce time and resources on such moonshots.<p>If the author and his peers disagree, they are free to found&#x2F;invest in such ventures. And if they&#x27;re right, they can make a fortune for themselves in the process. But just sitting in the sidelines and armchair quarterbacking is a pointless waste of time for everyone involved.
random3almost 9 years ago
That&#x27;s a bit Cocky, considering the amount of knowledge and effort google has behind AI, quantum computing and others.<p>But I guess the main point of the article was not that, but the Bubble plug.
gerbillyalmost 9 years ago
Think of the the other time when people want to be precise: contracts.<p>Contracts are written down in text, so they can be edited, carefully read and referred to later.<p>He might as well also say, that in the future there will be no written contracts, we&#x27;ll go back to debating and settling our issues verbally in public.
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madelinecameronalmost 9 years ago
Nice sponsored article there.
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Animatsalmost 9 years ago
Visual Basic was a success until Microsoft killed it.<p>Remember when you could write HTML with a WYSIWYG editor?<p>Most sites can be built with Wordpress.<p>The hosting side of things is mostly automated and becoming more standardized.
nercht12almost 9 years ago
To each their own. Yes, I&#x27;m sure one day more people will use software that allows them to put together amazing programs using complex GUIs that do wonderful magic. These may be business programs that do statistics, or games, and we&#x27;ve already seen both (hello Excel, hello game studios). The problem, as it always has been, is that point when you want to do more and suddenly find yourself in asm land or looking to talk to mysterious &quot;drivers&quot;. After all, what&#x27;s a port anyways? Does that mean my computer has Docker built-in? As I hint, people will hit that wall of mystery, and lower-level programming become inevitable. After that happens, they eventually become accustomed to this idea of telling a computer what to do by strict commands according to a specific protocol. For the average guy who never gets into it, you could tell him it&#x27;s kind of like talking to a dog. &quot;Sit.&quot; It sits. &quot;Love.&quot; It wags its tail. &quot;You&#x27;re so smart, pooch.&quot; It gives you a blank stare... and keeps wagging it&#x27;s tail.<p>These days, when I look for a programming language, it&#x27;s not about the syntax sugar, it&#x27;s more about the feature set that comes with the language: things like the module and build system (e.g. Java is pretty easy), the ease at which both complex and trivial tasks can be accomplished, and the availability of support community and libraries.
lnanek2almost 9 years ago
If it was another company doing this, there might be a chance it is meaningful. Google is not that company, however. They started and killed visual programming projects before, dumping everyone&#x27;s data. The last one was called App Inventor. At least they made the code open source so MIT could write App Inventor 2 based on it. The best thing they could do to make me think Project Bloks will be meaningful is to give it to another company in a similar fashion. Otherwise I expect they would just kill it next year anyway like other projects of theirs.
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dkarapetyanalmost 9 years ago
Programming is really formalization. That is the hard part. The kind of thinking required to take something and express it as a set of logical and computable constraints. It doesn&#x27;t matter how much money you throw at the problem we are never going to have the entire population being able to &quot;program&quot;.<p>It is the same reason despite all the training in mathematics only a few people go on to get a PhD and come up with something novel in mathematics. The rest of the population gets by with basic algebra, not even calculus is required.
emblem21almost 9 years ago
Dear writer, the future is fewer people writing sponsored content.
spotmanalmost 9 years ago
Maybe an unpopular opinion here, but I agree with the article overall.<p>My view is less that programming is going away, and more that all jobs are. Not immediately or anything, but I don&#x27;t think we are going to magically produce programming jobs for all the masses who are going to need a job.<p>Having been at this over 15 years I have single handedly automated thousands of jobs, and of those a healthy handful are making things more efficient that a project needs less programmers, etc..<p>So while we will still need programmers probably forever , I&#x27;m not sure why people think that the number of programming jobs will do anything but stay the same or decrease, while the number of candidates increases.<p>Tooling has come so far, and it&#x27;s going to go farther. You don&#x27;t need to know a lot to make something meaningful anymore.<p>How we expect to train all children to be programmers and think that by the time they are our age it will still be a field that is lucrative is silly I think. My prediction is with all the new programmers coming into the field intersecting with the tooling getting better, intersecting with that a lot of other markets need less people I think we are left with a crowded field of players where the average skill level is lower because the tasks do not require it to be all that high any more.<p>Programming is the new carpentry. Probably jobs for a long time , but training the children now like it&#x27;s going to be the most amazing career path is short sighted I think.<p>Considering this, I hope my kids don&#x27;t pick programming as a career. I would love to be wrong.
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bbctolalmost 9 years ago
It seems like this is focused a lot on what people want to do, as opposed to what provides value. Not that that&#x27;s a bad focus! But if you want to predict the future, I think market forces would be a better indicator; as much as we might want to move to a future where programming involves more intuitive tools, I still think it will be more powerful, and thus valuable, to be able to muck around in the code.
maus42almost 9 years ago
&gt;But with new programs like Microsoft Word coming into existence, typography (e.g. formatting a document, setting the margins, making sure the lettering is appealing, etc.) became something everyone could do easily without much thinking.<p>Correction: Most people do it without thinking. This does not mean the majority of the typography on the internet (and eventually printed) is <i>good</i> or <i>well done</i>.<p>My LaTeX setup produces fairly good typography for math work, without too much thinking on my part, after setting up the packages, fonts, etc and learning LaTeX, which did took some time. (And ironically enough, writing LaTeX feels quite a bit like coding...) But first of all, deciding to use and learn LaTeX (or some other workable solution to produce good typography, it probably isn&#x27;t the only one but the one I&#x27;m familiar with) requires you think about typography and realize that good typography is needed in the first place.
50CNTalmost 9 years ago
This article strokes me the wrong way. If any of the things described in there were possible, why the hell would I be writing any code? I&#x27;m a lazy programmer for gods sake, and code I don&#x27;t have to write is a win in my book.<p>Matter of fact, once I got past the point where the novelty of writing lots of code wore off, I&#x27;m spending most of my time trying to write less code.<p>That side step all these miracle solutions for bringing coding to the masses in one fell swoop and eliminating its tedium do is that &quot;Hey, technically, if you draw pictures instead, it doesn&#x27;t count as writing&quot;. Yes, technically true, totally useless. I personally believe that whoever comes up with this again and again deserves to be bludgeoned by a copy of &quot;K&amp;R The C Programming language&quot;, turned into a picture book. All 70,000 pages of of it, with the big glossy full-page, double-page foldout prints.<p>&#x2F;rant
Forge36almost 9 years ago
-on mobile so I apologize in advance for bad grammar and typos<p>I don&#x27;t think the author understands the purpose of the project. Google wants more coders. As a company Coders are likely one of Google&#x27;s largest expense (At my Job staffing is 25% developers, and staffing is ~80% of our current budget). Does Google necessarily need more developers writing code? No, however they could use more people who can code to solve the small problems they face daily.<p>I think it&#x27;s more likely we&#x27;ll have people writing code informally, and as a small part of their overall job.<p>&gt;Writing code will become less and less necessary, making software development more accessible to everyone.<p>I agree with that sentiment, however I fail to see the link between more accessible development and fewer people writing code. This process has been happening for years.<p>&gt;The real benefit of something like Project Bloks is that it actually removes the code.<p>But is that new? What if something more advanced is needed?<p>Excel is a good example of writing code for a job. Access is an example of programming without writing code (it&#x27;s sql with a GUI). Both tools are popular however people have a hard time doing advanced things. This is also perhaps due to the high price of creating the building block interface&#x2F;software cost.<p>By thinking logically, people may not write code formally, they may not write any code: however it will encourage people to create solutions to the problems most applicable to them. Maybe their solution is 90% the blocks provided by their program. 10% code they wrote so handle their edge case. Perhaps it&#x27;s something they only engage in one day a month.<p>In the end I think we&#x27;ll see more code, more people writing code, and programs with more handling of the common tasks as building blocks but the ability to write code for the complex parts and plug it in where needed.
pessimizeralmost 9 years ago
Thinking that turning buttons red is the major problem of programming is mistaking the interface for the substance. It&#x27;s as if you wanted to teach people how to develop new automobile technology by selecting the shape of the steering wheel, the fabric in the interior, and the color of the paint job.<p>The problem with programming is that computers can&#x27;t understand your intention. What amateur programmers need is side-effect free functions, efficient abstracting away of cores and memory-management, and static analysis that makes functional bugs as obvious as a leak in a plastic bag. Computers will never understand your intention; programmers barely understand your intention and they have a lot more in common with you.
modelessalmost 9 years ago
He&#x27;s right but he doesn&#x27;t understand why. We&#x27;ll write less code in the future but it won&#x27;t have anything to do with visual programming languages or other fancy tools for &quot;programming without code&quot;. Code will always be the best way to write programs.<p>The reason we&#x27;ll write less code in the future is we won&#x27;t need as many programs. The future is in machine learning and machine teaching, which enable a single program to perform a huge variety of different tasks. We&#x27;ll train the computers of the future by showing examples and correcting mistakes, as we do with our fellow humans. Machine teaching is a different thing entirely from programming.
linguistbreakeralmost 9 years ago
Did the author not notice the text on the Project Bloks homepage he linked to that says<p>&quot;creating new ways to teach computational thinking to kids.&quot;<p>Pretty disingenuous or arrogant to act like you&#x27;re setting Google straight xD.<p>Also, &quot;intersectionality.&quot;
jfealmost 9 years ago
Any time a new idea comes along, there&#x27;s always someone who claims everyone needs to learn it, and that it needs to become a part of school curriculum.<p>In my opinion, the ability to think laterally is far more valuable than the ability to think &#x27;computationally&#x27;. The latter is comprised of essentially one pattern of thinking -- procedural -- while the former opens one to an infinite set of patterns with which to think.<p>The computer is a decent vehicle for exploring patterns or modes of thinking once you&#x27;ve discovered them, but the goal should be to explore the pattern, not the vehicle.
jwattealmost 9 years ago
&quot;Writing code will become less and less necessary, making software development more accessible to everyone.&quot;<p>I heard that same argument 30 years ago. &quot;4G&quot; and &quot;expert systems&quot; and &quot;application generators&quot; and &quot;visual programming&quot; were going to do away with the &quot;engineering&quot; aspect of software engineering.<p>However, in reality, we write more complex code for a simple business app now than ever before.<p>Once hard AI can extract requirements and transform them to systems, we can retire from coding, but probably not before then.
ankurdhamaalmost 9 years ago
Programming is the act of &quot;describing&quot; a computation to a computing machine. In the past people used gears and levers to do that for mechanical computers. The way of describing computation can exist in many forms, like, formulas in excel sheet or using timeline to describe an animation or using C to build a device driver. All these ways have their own particular context to be useful. So, it doesn&#x27;t make sense that in future we will have &quot;one particular way&quot; of describing computations.
justinlardinoisalmost 9 years ago
Is &quot;computational thinking&quot; really something that isn&#x27;t already being taught in schools? There&#x27;s a link to an article that spends three pages defining it: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cs.cmu.edu&#x2F;~15110-s13&#x2F;Wing06-ct.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cs.cmu.edu&#x2F;~15110-s13&#x2F;Wing06-ct.pdf</a><p>It alludes to computer science, but really it just boils down to solving problems by breaking them into parts. In other words, problem solving skills. It doesn&#x27;t sound like anything special to me.
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seangroggalmost 9 years ago
&quot;[...] so why are we having a serious conversation about grooming children to become software developers before they’ve even gone to middle school?&quot;<p>For the same reason we groom children to become mathematicians, scientists, readers, writers, historians, musicians, actors, etc. before middle school. Project Bloks grooms your child to be a Software Developer about as much as their first grade teacher grooms them to be a Quantitative Analyst.
ktRolsteralmost 9 years ago
Once upon a time, Excel didn&#x27;t exist, and if you wanted to do that kind of thing, you needed to program it. So Excel replaced a segment of programmers.<p>At the same time, many other programming opportunities opened up. We have code in every single doorknob (at least, a lot of them). Some coding usages will be replaced, but others will always open up, at least for the forseeable future.
wentoodeepalmost 9 years ago
Future isn&#x27;t about writing less code or using a building blocks, but by using AI and NPL to produce results from user intents. Perfect example would be Wolfram|Alpha and Wolfram Language. It&#x27;s no longer about developing a software, mini app or microservice but more about getting answers. Either textual or graphically.
meiraalmost 9 years ago
Well, I disagree. When I started to program, in 2000, it was só easy that a child 12 years old could do (HTML,php,ftp). Although anyone can deploy something online today, I doubt it&#x27;s só easy for a 12 years old kid to learn something similar to what I used, like React, node and git.<p>Editado: conclusion, programming is becoming harder, not easier.
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nijikoalmost 9 years ago
There will exist both. You need one to create the other. Eventually graphical will become the textual representation to create the higher power.<p>There is always a lower and higher power, even if they are equal in design.
zwiebackalmost 9 years ago
The linked article by Jeannette Wing is more interesting than the techcrunch article. She wrote really interesting stuff on subtyping in the 90s so her name jumped out right away.
mempkoalmost 9 years ago
I&#x27;m sorry the future is clear. Perl 6 will be the last programming language. The only way coding will become visual is when we use unicode symbols to do diagrams in perl 6.
WorldMakeralmost 9 years ago
As someone that has had several times now to &quot;productionize&quot; or &quot;modernize&quot; an Excel spreadsheet or Access database many times, this is one of those prognostications this is one of those things people think from time to time and thus far in my experience tend to be incorrect about.<p>The issue with &quot;computational thinking&quot; in so far as how this article seems to want to teach it and how most schools often do teach it already in the real world is the tendency to stop at the basics and Office applications and just enough VBA&#x2F;macros to give people a feeling of competency without giving them a glimpse into the real depths of programming and what software developers <i>really</i> do.<p>I keep wanting to make a XKCD-style sketch graph of the idea. But there&#x27;s a lot of Dunning-Kruger over-competent business people that thinks all the software they need to run their business is spreadsheets and spreadsheets pretending to be databases like Access. To them real software developers seem over-paid based on their experience of Lovecraftian &quot;systems&quot; they can hack together given what they think they know.<p>That&#x27;s a very real and dangerous place for business people to be, but it is unsurprisingly common. Those people don&#x27;t respect programming as a discipline and a <i>craft</i>, and sometimes those are the people out in the corporate world controlling software developer salaries or morale...<p>It&#x27;s also the same lack of knowledge about software as a <i>craft</i> (as engineering, in a very classical sense) that leads people time and time again to the well of &quot;well in the future people won&#x27;t be coding because [ Excel will do it all | There will be a visual tool everyone will easily understand | AI will do all the programming based on natural language queries | Insert some other magic idea here ]&quot;.<p>There&#x27;s as much art to software development as there is science, and forgetting that art will still need artists and will not make itself is a strange thing that is surprising common.<p>To be fair, there are a lot of software developers themselves that have played into this delusion, and it&#x27;s something of a trap that a software developer can easily fall into. We&#x27;re trained to break down systems and try to automate them to their fullest potential and it&#x27;s hard sometimes to avoid that meta-leap to wanting to do it to our own systems. We fall into building &quot;Business Rules Engines&quot; that we think some business users might be able to understand and comprehend and might obfuscate away the need for programming. We experiment with boondoggles like visual programming languages and &quot;auto-coding&quot; experiences. We get grandiose visions of the machine or software product or great AI that will make it all more accessible...<p>The future will probably look like the present in that regard. We&#x27;ll still have the Dunning-Kruger folks building mission critical applications out of complex webs of Excel and Access and other past and future productivity tools we build in the goal of making programming more accessible. We&#x27;ll still have software developers eventually hired to clean up the messes and craft versions that can sustainably last or reliably operate outside the hacked together environment from which they were originally built. There will continue to be software developers continuing to think they can build the environment that will done rule them all and save everyone time (and meanwhile eat up so much of software development budgets and time to built it)... And all of these groups will still have a hard time communicating between each other the real risks and efforts involved in any of it.
pklausleralmost 9 years ago
So long as it&#x27;s the right people no longer writing code, that future sounds pretty nice to me.
dudulalmost 9 years ago
Is the future of math to get rid of notation, greek letters, etc?
hyperbovinealmost 9 years ago
Anyone else stop reading at &quot;intersectionality&quot;?
fapjacksalmost 9 years ago
Well, that&#x27;s what they said forty years ago, so...
Falkon1313almost 9 years ago
It&#x27;s not about code. When you, as a programmer, consider the purpose of programming, and how computer-illiterate people view it, things are different. A programmer&#x27;s job is not to type code. It&#x27;s to find out what is holding other people back from achieving what they want and find a way to remove that barrier. It&#x27;s to solve problems and help people make more valuable use of their time.<p>It could be the analyst that spends hours of drudgery printing out things from one system and retyping them into another (then going back to fix the typos) when what they want to be doing, what would enable them to provide value, is analyzing the output from the second system. It could be the junior exec that spends countless hours manually collating data to build spreadsheets and presentations about their projects, when they want to be doing is trying out new ideas and refining their projects.<p>Many people were raised to &quot;write each vocabulary word 30 times&quot; and see drudgery as a necessary, albeit frustrating, part of their jobs. Programmers automate that away so those people can do more important and useful things and produce more value. It&#x27;s not just drudgery though. People have hard problems, often vaguely defined, and programmers help them understand, specify, clarify, and solve those problems.<p>Younger generations are more computer literate, but still often just use computers and don&#x27;t realize how much control they could have over them. They may use programs that don&#x27;t do quite what they need, not realizing how easy that would be to fix. Even if they&#x27;re not the ones doing the programming, just recognizing that a programmer could help solve their problems is valuable.<p>At the same time, many non-programmers don&#x27;t realize how hard some things are to program, or how clear, precise, and unambiguous things need to be defined in order for computers to produce the desired result. They assume something must be simple when they can&#x27;t even define what the something is. Or they assume that because a program exists, any programmer could make an equivalent but slightly different program quickly and easily.<p>We don&#x27;t need to teach everyone to code, we certainly don&#x27;t need to teach everyone the syntax of some specific language. But we really do need to teach them to think in these terms. What problems do you face? Which of those could be automated or streamlined? How would you specify it clearly and unambiguously? What edge cases and special conditions do you need to deal with? etc. Given that line of thinking, those who are interested will learn to program and those who aren&#x27;t will at least understand it. Some hypothetical pictocode&#x2F;vocalcode&#x2F;AIcode doesn&#x27;t really matter. People need to understand the basic concepts of problem-solving and automation, how they can be useful, and what makes them relatively easy or difficult.
LoSboccaccalmost 9 years ago
same as always right?
cnfjdnxalmost 9 years ago
And in this thread you can see programmers getting defensive and flustered over the notion that they too might be vulnerable to automation.
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