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Everyone Despises SolarCity Deal, Except Tesla Shareholders

54 pointsby hvoalmost 9 years ago

10 comments

jobualmost 9 years ago
Most articles paint this deal as solar + battery + car, but the car part really doesn&#x27;t matter here. The key part is solar + battery.<p>Over the last year states have started increasing fees to hook solar into the grid and at the same time are reducing net metering rates (payouts for power generation). This has hurt Solar City over the last year and likely would&#x27;ve killed it long-term.<p>I see Tesla using the Power Wall to make an in-home grid that uses solar + battery as the primary power source, and the grid is the backup power (for charging the battery with off-peak rates) . That way people can avoid paying fees for net generation, and the net metering rates don&#x27;t matter.
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Canutesunalmost 9 years ago
Given Elon Musk&#x27;s track record of spelling out exactly what he wants to do, receiving a bunch of naysaying, and then doing exactly what he said, I think betting against him is a bad bet.
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chollida1almost 9 years ago
I&#x27;m not so sure shareholders like the deal, I think its more of a case where they like Telsa despite the deal.<p>Or more to the point, they consider the deal more of a distraction than something that will sink Telsa. When you think Tesla, you probably think electric car, or autonomous driving car, or Elon Musk.<p>I mean if you hate the deal what are you going todo. The deal is almost certainly going to go through so holding shares just to vote against the deal won&#x27;t do any good. You could short Tesla but over the past 5 years the street seems to love Tesla so much that bad news doesn&#x27;t seem to affect the company that much.<p>This is a stock that has had a high short interest number for a long time. And quarter after quarter they miss numbers but the stock goes up as the shorts are forced to cover their positions when the stock fails to drop.<p>People aren&#x27;t investing in Telsa due to any fundamental, int he financial sense, numbers, they are doing it on belief that Elon will come through. Which is good news for Tesla as they really need the short term investors on their side in the next year as they&#x27;ll almost certainly have to raise cash to fund the production of the Model 3.
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forrestthewoodsalmost 9 years ago
How much money has SolarCity gotten from the government? Looks like at least 2.5 billion [1].<p>Tesla and SpaceX haven&#x27;t been super dependent on government funds. But SolarCity definitely has.<p>Musk&#x27;s real super power might be in getting free money. I suppose the phrase here is don&#x27;t hate the player hate the game. But it still rubs me the wrong way. As unpopular as that opinion may be.<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.latimes.com&#x2F;business&#x2F;la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.latimes.com&#x2F;business&#x2F;la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-2015...</a>
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abalonealmost 9 years ago
It makes sense. Tesla&#x27;s raison d&#x27;être is sustainability. If at scale their product is still powered by dirty energy, it will undercut the product. It&#x27;s not just a fast car, it&#x27;s a clean car. If utilities don&#x27;t keep pace with them in terms of solar deployments, it&#x27;s literally a risk to the company. Empowering customers to directly source clean power at the grassroots level frees them from dependence on utilities.
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GigabyteCoinalmost 9 years ago
&gt;Even if energy generation, storage and an auto powertrain are a seamless product, so-called vertical integration, in which one manufacturer makes all the components, was the old Henry Ford model and later, General Motors’. That approach has gone down in automotive history as a colossal failure.<p>What is Tesla meant to do if nobody else is able to deliver what they demand?<p>Ford Motor Company essentially created a new industry, which is why they had to make all their parts... Tesla is doing a similar thing here imho.
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cletusalmost 9 years ago
The best way I can describe this deal is that one of Musk&#x27;s companies (Tesla) bails out another of Musk&#x27;s companies (SolarCity) that owes a lot of money to yet another of Musk&#x27;s companies (SpaceX).<p>I&#x27;m really not surprised people are concerned about this.
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kragenalmost 9 years ago
A thing I don&#x27;t understand about this article: &quot;<i>vertical integration…was the old Henry Ford model and later, General Motors&#x27;. That approach has gone down in automotive history as a colossal failure</i>&quot;<p>Because clearly when we think about the role of pre-Baby-Boom Ford and GM in the history of the automotive industry the first term that comes to mind is &quot;colossal failure&quot;?<p>Also it seems contradictory to say &quot;Tesla shareholders&quot; don&#x27;t &quot;despise [the] deal&quot; and then point out that the stock price dropped 10% when the deal was announced. What determines the stock price, if not the previous and current shareholders? Gremlins?
jshevekalmost 9 years ago
&gt; Even if energy generation, storage and an auto powertrain are a seamless product, so-called vertical integration [...] That approach has gone down in automotive history as a colossal failure.<p>This kind of statement always bothers me.<p>Just because several entities experienced failure using a method in the past doesn&#x27;t mean that the method itself is guaranteed to fail always and forever.
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erdevsalmost 9 years ago
The SolarCity combo is absolutely brilliant. The chattering class and peanut gallery bet against Musk on Tesla and Space X as well, and there will always be naysayers to quote in the press for bold moves like this.<p>The combo makes perfect sense for exactly the reasons Musk outlines in &quot;Part Deux&quot; of his strategy for Tesla and in the publicly disclosed rationale for this deal. If you&#x27;re a long-term investor, which is rightfully the only sort of investor that Musk really cares about (at least for now, when he has the power and support to fend off activists and the like), this makes absolute sense and is a great bet.<p>As for governance... let&#x27;s not forget the NetSuite deal involving Oracle and Ellison on both sides that just happened. This sort of thing isn&#x27;t exactly unheard of, and the key question is not whether conflict exists, but whether the deal makes real business sense on both sides despite the conflict. Also recall that this was fully and properly disclosed before the deal was finalized, and that Musk got sign off from independent shareholders on both sides, even among those that were initially skeptical of the combination. One can&#x27;t really do anything more than Tesla and SolarCity did here.<p>Also, one shouldn&#x27;t be surprised that Musk had a conflict of interest here. Much as VCs sometimes rightfully say &quot;no conflict, no interest&quot;... part of the reason you invest in a market or begin a company is because you have a thesis about the space or the market overall. If you&#x27;re taking multiple bets in that space, even if they start at different vectors, there&#x27;s a chance they will collide or make sense to combine over time. For the same reason, one shouldn&#x27;t be overwhelmingly surprised if in 10 years it ends up making sense to combine Space X with Tesla and Solar City as well. I don&#x27;t see an explicit rationale for that today at all, but it&#x27;s easy to see the possibility of a rationale existing in the future, depending on how things evolve. No one should be acting gobsmacked or thinking the SolarCity+Tesla combo is somehow a nonsensical, self-dealing arrangement.<p>The one thing I wish Musk would have done in addition here, or that I hope he&#x27;ll do shortly following this combo, is introduce even greater provisions for his ongoing control. My biggest fear with Tesla is that it grows large enough to attract activist investors that are highly levered so as to have disproportionate impact and seek to exploit the stock. Musk may, at some point (at least temporarily) lose the halo effect, and that&#x27;ll leave him and Tesla vulnerable to provocative moves form investors that do <i>not</i> align with long-term shareholder value, but rather seek to optimize shorter-term outcomes. So, if anything, I&#x27;m directly against the calls from people that are questioning governance here. I would prefer Tesla shareholders agree to cede <i>more</i> control to Musk and that the company limit executive liability. <i>Most</i> companies absolutely should not have these sorts of provisions, because most CEOs are not worthy of that sort of trust. But in Musk&#x27;s case, the boldness of vision, correctness of long-term thinking, and overall trustworthiness in shareholder value creation and protection have been proven for long enough that I&#x27;d be more than willing to see this happen and actually actively hope for it.
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