A few ponderings:<p>- Using saffron as a means to transform poppy fields is a 12-year-old+ idea[0] that doesn't seem to have made a dent in opimium production, which has skyrocketed since 2004.[1] What makes this iteration different?<p>- In 2011, saffron prices dropped 60% to due to an oversupply.[2] Given that the market for saffron is relatively established, isn't there concern that Rumi's growth might outpace demand and cause a similar price drop?<p>- What makes Rumi different than current companies run by locals such as the Afghan Saffron Company?[3]<p>[0]: <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/1458504/Afghan-farmers-turn-to-saffron-as-replacement-for-their-opium-crops.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/1...</a><p>[1]: <a href="https://publicintelligence.net/unodc-afghan-opium-survey-2015/" rel="nofollow">https://publicintelligence.net/unodc-afghan-opium-survey-201...</a><p>[2]: <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-13848820" rel="nofollow">http://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-13848820</a><p>[3]: <a href="http://www.afghansaffron.com/" rel="nofollow">http://www.afghansaffron.com/</a>
These are some of my best friends and fellow veterans. We couldn't be prouder of what they are doing. They are part of YC's fellowship as well if that wasn't already known.<p>What you all here might be interested in that isn't discussed is how they are opening up and transforming logistics and supply chain into previously closed markets. That is the huge opportunity here that few have the skills or background to properly navigate. These are still hard to win supply lines, but there are openings there.<p>Congrats Kim and Emily!
Hi friends, I'm Kim, the CEO of Rumi. We're so excited to be one of the YC fellows, and we would love to answer any questions if you have any. Shoot! And buy saffron please- makes excellent gifts.
Pretty bizarre we haven't genetically modified a saffron yet to have more than three little threads of spice produced per flower. Heck, considering the variety our race managed to breed dogs into and the amount of change we created in corn and other projects, you'd think we could have done that with selective breeding alone.
I come from an Iranian background and saffron is a staple in Iranian cuisine. I'm not sure how much demand it would have in western cuisines, although according to the article it's used in some spanish and french dishes. It would be interesting to see where this goes.
Please pardon my question if it's inappropriate, but isn't saffron prized for psychoactive potential in the black market? I'm ignorant about the scale to make it worthwhile considering this memory is based on some illegal logging elsewhere in the world. I'm simply curious because rebuilding in Afghanistan - or really any place that the world tends to ignore - is an absolutely human, noble cause and I hope for positive outcomes!
I worked at a telecom company in Afghanistan a few years ago when the country was relatively safe. I'd like to leave HNer's with some statistics that are not included in the NYTimes article that might explain why it is so vital to move any part of the agricultural crop away from opium:<p>Afghanistan's opium production currently goes into more than 90% of heroin worldwide.<p>According to a UN doc cited on wikipedia, production reached a peak in 1999 with a bumper crop of 4,500 metric tons. [1] Shortly afterwards in 2000, 99% of poppy cultivation in Afghanistan was wiped out by the Taliban, who controlled Afghanistan with an iron fist and declared the cultivation of poppy "un-islamic". This amounted to a 75% reduction in the world supply of opium. So total world production was ~6,000 metric tons in 1999.<p>According to this 2014 UN report [2] the total area of opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan was estimated at 224,000 hectares with an average yield of 28.7kg/hectare. Converting this to metric tons: 224,000 * 28.7 / 1,000 = 6,429 metric tons of opium produced. Report cites a possible range from 5,100-7,800 metric tons produced.<p>So not only is Afghanistan back to pre-Taliban production levels, it is producing more than the entire world production of opium in 1999. This is just 15 years after a 99% eradication of the crop in the region. Ironically, opium production has ramped up massively since 2002, under US/Karzai governance.<p>The farm gate value of this opium is only $850m. Using an average of the conversion ratios cited in the report (18.5:1 for pure heroin, 9.6:1 for export-grade heroin) and a price of $60,000USD/kg of heroin [3] we get a total processed value of $27.4bn. That's a crazy amount of value locked into processing and distribution.<p>Any amount of possible change towards other crops will be hugely beneficial for smaller-scale farmers who do not wish (or do not have the connections) to sell into the drug trade, and who only see 1/30th of the processed value of their crop. Not to mention it will be putting a dent in the world supply of heroin.<p>This is an ambitious and well-intentioned project. I'm glad to see HN sponsoring these types of ventures, especially as it falls outside the scope of the tech world and does not have the TAM/SAM/SOM projections that I'm sure VCs dream about. Good luck to the founding team, and stay safe.<p>[1] <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_production_in_Afghanistan#cite_ref-13" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_production_in_Afghanista...</a>
[2] <a href="https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghan-opium-survey-2014.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/...</a>
[3] <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-drug-dealers-next-door-how-nyc-heroin-mills-are-blending-in/" rel="nofollow">http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-drug-dealers-next-door-how-n...</a>