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Twitch could be a $20B company within Amazon

223 pointsby stevenover 8 years ago

20 comments

dexwizover 8 years ago
Amazon bought two things with Twitch: 1) A social community 2) a monetization model. The video service itself is secondary.<p>The past several years has shown the social communities grow organically. But its hard to make users adopt one. If you build it, they probably won&#x27;t come. It&#x27;s easier for a big company to buy one up than start one from scratch. (Think Instagram versus Google Plus).<p>Second, Twitch is one of the few monetization models on the internet that is not pure ad based. Twitch does have ads, but streamers see more money through direct donations and monthly subscriptions. Also I am willing to bet the rate of ad blockers on Twitch is higher than the average site. Twitch has shied away from dark patterns that lock out adblocking users. I don&#x27;t see any big modals or disabled video if I run an adblocker on Twitch. This is no doubt on purpose. So Twitch has locked on an monetization model of direct payment for digital content, which is rare on the internet. And best of all, it&#x27;s completely optional.<p>A video streaming service alone is nothing revolutionary. There are many Twitch clones that haven&#x27;t reach near the same popularity. Its the community, and how its funded.
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AndrewWarnerover 8 years ago
Maybe the most useful interview I&#x27;ve ever done on Mixergy is with Twitch&#x27;s cofounder about how he founded the company.<p>Do yourself a favor and get the transcript. He&#x27;s super-methodical.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;docs.google.com&#x2F;document&#x2F;d&#x2F;11Bcu32XwL4S0BHB2fybaqRRQF8I2KUpnFbQLrCM7gZk&#x2F;edit" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;docs.google.com&#x2F;document&#x2F;d&#x2F;11Bcu32XwL4S0BHB2fybaqRRQ...</a>
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strictneinover 8 years ago
If you&#x27;re interested in the backstory of Justin.tv (which became Twitch), StartUp has a two part podcast on it:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;gimletmedia.com&#x2F;episode&#x2F;almost-famous-season-3-episode-1&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;gimletmedia.com&#x2F;episode&#x2F;almost-famous-season-3-episo...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;gimletmedia.com&#x2F;episode&#x2F;season-3-episode-2&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;gimletmedia.com&#x2F;episode&#x2F;season-3-episode-2&#x2F;</a>
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alexandre_mover 8 years ago
This whole industry of game streaming is operating in a gray zone.<p>It&#x27;s a matter of time before we see some big lawsuits against the streamer and streaming platforms which make a lot of money by publishing the whole content, without any royalties to game developers &#x2F;publishers.<p>For certain games. it doesn&#x27;t spoil or ruin the fun factor for viewers, but some others it just removed the incentives to buy a copy of the game in the first place.
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Analemma_over 8 years ago
With all that growth opportunity, you&#x27;d think they could invest a little more in the engineering side. I mean, I like Twitch, but their platform is still a mess. Chat delay can be a minute or more, and the VOD situation still sucks (60 days? Seriously?). I mean, they&#x27;re owned by the people who run AWS for crying out loud. They should be able to knock this out of the park.<p>I thought YouTube Gaming was going to muscle in to this space quickly just by virtue of technical superiority. It looks like that hasn&#x27;t happened yet, but Twitch can&#x27;t afford to get complacent.
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Multiplayerover 8 years ago
My 9 year old son would rather watch people play minecraft than actually play it. I&#x27;m not talking about competitive or pro play (if that even exists for minecraft) - just people goofing around.<p>Potentially just an enormous new business for games.<p>I still can&#x27;t get my head around it. It&#x27;s like his version of cartoons.
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rjvirover 8 years ago
It&#x27;s worth noting that in the 2 year period since Amazon bought Twitch, their search interest via Google has been stagnant.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.google.com&#x2F;trends&#x2F;explore?date=2014-08-25%202016-08-26&amp;q=twitch" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.google.com&#x2F;trends&#x2F;explore?date=2014-08-25%202016...</a>
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dfreyover 8 years ago
More and more people are dumping cable TV. The main reasons that I hear for people keeping it are sports and news. If live streaming sites like twitch can sign deals with sports leagues, then I think we will see even more people cancelling their cable.<p>The nice thing about streaming is that you aren&#x27;t channel limited, so there is no reason why you can&#x27;t follow some obscure minor league team on the other side of the planet.
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thecolorblueover 8 years ago
What is a good example of a twitch stream to show how great live streaming can be?
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wehadfunover 8 years ago
Watching people play video games is something I still don&#x27;t understand.
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partiallyproover 8 years ago
I honestly think the game streaming model is sustainable, but it&#x27;s also a bit of a fad that will die down in 5-7 years. I also think Sony and Microsoft will begin to make their own portals of game streaming that will challenge Twitch. Microsoft just made an acquisition that points to this. That&#x27;s not to say they want to kill Twitch, just that they see its value. In doing so though, it will squeeze the margin on advertising revenues, couple that with just demographic shifts in the social fad and I believe it will not grow near as fast as people forecast As for valuation, I don&#x27;t know the numbers, it could be worth billions; but $20 Billion seems like a stretch when CBS is only worth $22 Billion and Viacom $18 Billion at present. I wonder what their actual financials look like, I feel like there is more monetary incentives and opportunities for the content creators than for Twitch itself.
greendestiny_reover 8 years ago
Twitch is a very interesting linguistical experiment, as the chat emotes can be used to convey very subtle nuances in meaning, unlike anything we&#x27;ve seen before, off- or online. For example, Kappa is a smug face denoting sarcasm, superiority, condescension and arrogance, but can imply any of those meanings <i>subverted</i>. Combining the emotes together, along with standard ASCII characters, can produce very complex and astoundingly compact stories[0].<p>[0] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;i.imgur.com&#x2F;sVQr7wY.jpg" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;i.imgur.com&#x2F;sVQr7wY.jpg</a>
hoodoofover 8 years ago
Game developers don&#x27;t have any option except to restrict public display of their games in some way.<p>There are now plenty of people who enjoy watching but not playing games.<p>Game developers need revenue for this firstly because they deserve it, having made the entertainment, but secondly because former players are now just watchers and not paying money, reducing revenue.<p>My guess is that games developers will permit public display of a restricted part of the game, like level one only, and will require royalties for display of other sections of the game
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pkambover 8 years ago
I wish Twitch had an Apple TV app.<p>I&#x27;ve found that the Apple TV is the only way I &quot;get&quot; YouTube in the same way the kids these days do. No way am I watching videos on my laptop&#x2F;desktop&#x2F;iPhone&#x2F;iPad while multitasking, but video on the big TV is great when sitting on the couch or on in the background.<p>Twitch on the Apple TV would be similar, but it appears Amazon (as with Prime Video) is refusing to release an app.
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mandeepjover 8 years ago
and amazon could be a $3T (that is trillion) company.<p>Nothing wrong with these speculations. At least they are positive and much better than recession or bubble is coming like BS rumors.<p>source - <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;finance.yahoo.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;chamath-palihapitiya-says-amazon-could-be-a--3-trillion-company-174748494.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;finance.yahoo.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;chamath-palihapitiya-says-amaz...</a>
hoodoofover 8 years ago
I wonder how the founders feel.
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stkyleover 8 years ago
These valuations are absurd.
Noseshineover 8 years ago
Funny enough, I&#x27;m watching a Starcraft II channel on Twitch just now, while reading HN. I don&#x27;t play <i>any</i> games, not even the smallest, but I watch - although only caster streams, not player streams. Tastosis FTW :)<p>I have a cable subscription as part of my apartment package - but I don&#x27;t use it. I don&#x27;t even have a TV. Internet and streaming <i>only</i>. I find that if I had TV I&#x27;d be much more passive and watch too much, now I watch SC2 but not as much as if I had TV. I spend a lot more time with edX and Coursera and watch lecture videos instead. If I had a TV it would be much harder to turn it off than a game stream. I like the smaller communities, watching a TV production I am much more of a passive anonymous consumer than even a (very big) 50,000 viewer stream on Twitch, and even though Twitch chat is notorious, at least it exists. And a lot of streamers and casters react to what is going on in chat at least sometimes, in traditional media I am much farther removed from the makers.<p>Of various streaming services I tried watching Twitch in the end provided the consistently best experience, these days up to 1080p60. That alone is not sufficient to know how much data is flowing though, the data rate can be very different even for streams with the same resolution and frame rate, so with the same advertised resolution one channel can be much more crisp than another one, but some people may experience occasional buffering issues.<p>I just checked, currently there are about 650,000 viewers total on Twitch, rough estimate just to get an idea of order of magnitude. More stats: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.quantcast.com&#x2F;twitch.tv#trafficCard" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.quantcast.com&#x2F;twitch.tv#trafficCard</a><p>You can change the period on the right, the earliest to set &quot;From&quot; to is 23 March, 2012, to get a view of how Twitch&#x27;s viewers develop(ed) over time. When I look at the last 365 days it looks pretty flat. I&#x27;m not sure about the data though, for some reason the &quot;Rest of the world&quot; (other than USA) is pretty much gone from one day to the next beginning of 2016. Does anyone have an explanation? I doubt that the &quot;rest of the world&quot; stopped watching Twitch overnight.<p>Looking at <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;stats.twitchapps.com&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;stats.twitchapps.com&#x2F;</a> it&#x27;s the same result though - no real growth any more for at least the last 12 months. Unless that&#x27;s based on the same data, I don&#x27;t know.
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ertigenover 8 years ago
Not real
Happpyover 8 years ago
Steam(Valve) could be next on Amazon&#x27;s list.<p>Desktop application: Add - amazon shopping - streaming - viewing - social ...
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