A good overview of the situation. The slow erosion of freedoms is coming earlier than expected.<p>Fortunately, the HK people recognise the salami tactics of the CCP, and protest (as in the umbrella movement 2014), and a small but growing minority now agitates for some sort of independence.<p>However, given<p>* the increasing power of China on a world-wide stage, even vis-a-vis, say, the UK<p>* the decreasing relevance of HK for China (see the graph in the article: HK GDP was a quarter of China GDP, now under 3%)<p>* China's aversion to any secession (almost instinctive, though probably based on historically justified fear of crumbling order and prosperity when a dynasty falls apart), as seen in Xinjiang, Tibet, etc.<p>it is hard to see how the tensions can be reduced peacefully, rather than gathering steam.
It makes me sad to see this, less than 20 years on.<p>Chris Patten (last governor, and something of a surprise appointment) made a big effort to shape the handover agreement to give democracy the best chance of surviving. He ended up quite popular in HK and deeply disliked in Beijing.<p>He has often spoken that one of his biggest regrets was he and Britain couldn't have achieved more and complained that British governments haven't criticised China enough since handover (most recently having a pop at George Osbourne last year). You end up with the impression his 5 years there made more impact on him than the rest of his career.
For anyone interested in the mainland/HK relationship, I urge you to check out the East West South North blog (1) run by Roland Soong, a local writer who translates Chinese/Cantonese newspaper articles, web videos, and forum posts into English. It’s ostensibly about local politics, but it also gets into the social dynamics and news events including tension between local people and mainlanders over real estate, government services, tourism, and elections.<p>In addition to activities in Hong Kong, there have been reports that China’s government has pressured overseas Chinese journalists, activists, and community leaders in other parts of the world (2) with at least one Chinese-Canadian journalist losing his job for not toeing the pro-China line. The Globe and Mail has reported that Chinese security agents on tourist visas regularly attempt to strong-arm certain expatriates to return home (3).<p>Finally, in China itself many journalists have simply given up. Many believe there is no future in the profession, because the government clamps down on almost any reporting that goes against local and national interests (4). The Communist/PRC propaganda machine has been around since 1949, but in an era of instant communications, social networking, and higher standards of living, the hopes and goals of China’s young journalists can’t bypass the power of a one-party political system that will do whatever it takes to achieve its vision of stability while preserving one-party rule.<p>1. <a href="http://www.zonaeuropa.com/weblog.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.zonaeuropa.com/weblog.htm</a><p>2. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/28/world/americas/chinese-canadians-china-speech.html?_r=0" rel="nofollow">http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/28/world/americas/chinese-can...</a><p>3. <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/chinese-agents-enter-canada-on-tourist-visas-to-coerce-return-of-fugitive-expats/article31981251/" rel="nofollow">http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/chinese-agents-...</a><p>4. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/12/china-journalism-reporters-freedom-of-speech" rel="nofollow">https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/12/china-journali...</a>
Although I think integration with mainland China is probably a good thing it's things like this I find alarming:<p><i>Hong Kongers are sensitive about encroachment by mainland law enforcement. Last year, several Hong Kong booksellers disappeared after publishing thinly sourced, salacious tell-alls about China’s leaders. They turned up later in detention in mainland China.</i>
I've been in (and around) Hong Kong since 2010.<p>Hong Kong is a beautiful country, a bustling dynamic city, with fantastic natural features on every side.<p>However it lost the ability to innovate, it became too expensive to live in, and talent has poured away.<p>At the same time liberties are being taken away, and there is a fear of Hong Kong losing its identity.<p>But there are seeds of hope; the localist / independence movement may still achieve the assumed impossible, and a startup scene is rapidly developing, and technology is beginning to be taken seriously.<p>I urge you to come visit some time.<p>Off topic / Advert<p>We're hosting the 3rd annual Hong Kong Code Conf in a few weeks, if you're looking for an excuse to visit.<p><a href="http://hongkong.codeconf.io" rel="nofollow">http://hongkong.codeconf.io</a>
Right or wrong, Hong Kong is neither powerful nor self-sufficient enough to resist total integration into mainland China. I suspect the process will be fully complete within another decade. China today is an unacknowledged superpower that is fully capable of enforcing absolute dominance in nearby territories. No amount of international condemnation can stop China.<p>From a military point of view, Hong Kong as an island is very easy to isolate and fully suppress for years until the people change their minds. China has the economic clout and manpower to do this for decades if necessary.<p>I strongly believe Hong Kong politicians are better served by asking for concessions and benefits from the mainland (tax reduction, extra funding, etc) then attempting secessionist movements that are only going to spectacularly fail with a bloodbath of their people.
the graph showing gdp is very skewed. China was not an open market in 1985.<p>in the recent legislative elections,pro democracy voters won.it will be a tough fight for china.people here are prepared to sacrifice multiple generations for freedom.<p>i live around the region and follow hong kong closely.
would like to share more,but limited by my mobile device.<p>source: <a href="https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/09/05/legislative-legco-hong-kong-election-2016-triumph-for-pro-democracy-newcomers-as-opposition-camp-maintains-veto-power/" rel="nofollow">https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/09/05/legislative-legco-hong...</a>
I have to ask the question... Why is China so goddamn rich and how did Hong Kong became so insignificant compared to mainland?<p>What happened in the mainland exactly in the last 10, 15 years?<p>Sorry if it's a naive comment
I'd love to hear more from the perspective of Hong Kong residents and natives. In the us we get relatively little coverage of the situation in Hong Kong.