The Elephant in the Smartwatch Room

56 pointsby JamilDover 8 years ago

17 comments

enteeover 8 years ago

The elephant in the article is that he mentions Garmin, as a major player, then nearly completely ignores it. The industry isn't an Apple Watch industry, it's Apple/Samsung accessory on one side, and true fitness watch on the other.As a Garmin user (Fenix 3 HR), I find it indispensable on my rides, swims, runs, etc. Nothing works better with the same battery life and integration. The notifications are kinda nice, but honestly the fitness part of it matters far more.Apple clearly has been moving in the fitness watch direction, but it's unlikely they'll get the same performance because they're unwilling to sacrifice svelte design (dedicated altimeter, GPS, temperature, extra radios plus long-life battery take more space). Even in the current watch they have about 1/3 the battery life using GPS. Of course that's fine for a lot of people, but there's a healthy number who want more.I think the final layout will be Apple/Samsung with a large majority of the market, and sports specialists (Garmin) having the rest, but that segment being quite strong and healthy over the long term. Where that leaves Fitbit, I don't know. They don't have a model that meets the needs of someone who wants a Garmin (though Garmin is expanding down into their space), and they'll never have the integration the "cool-accessory" market wants.

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msabalauover 8 years ago

Perhaps the elephant in the story is that with 35 million smartwatches sold, ever, compared to 1.4 billion smartphones sold globally this year, smartwatches simply don't matter.

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HCIdivision17over 8 years ago

I can't buy into this analysis. I just got a Gear S3 Frontier. It's a literal cell phone, but it looks like a watch. It's fairly comfortable (after the absurdly bad band is replaced), and its interface feels natural.It's the watch I wanted when I was a little kid with the cereal box Tetris watch. [0] I had a whole bunch of Casio databanks, from the 32 number to 150 number [1] to the neato 'touch screen' version I saved up for a year to buy [2]. I remember dreaming of getting that computer watch off SkyMall's catalog (can't find a link just now), and dreamed of having something like it. Now I have a gizmo more powerful that Roger Smith's in BigO.Again, it is an actual cell phone. My inner child is gleeful about it. But here's the gripe: the software to talk to it is only available on a mobile device. ONLY. Any my phone is more than 4 years old, so it turns out my bluetooth can't talk to it.Still an awesome watch, and I can't wait to upgrade my phone and load my usual apps on it. Would I have gotten it if it were smaller, less capable? Probably. I tried to get an S2, but my phone store wouldn't sell it while the S3 was on the way.EDIT: This is one of the first watches I've seen that is capable of standing on its own (somewhat) if untethered from a phone. There have been cell phone watches, but not at this price point, and not with the same slick interface.[0] You know the one: <a href="https://stevecochrane.com/v3/2006/09/15/tetris-should-be-everywhere/" rel="nofollow">https://stevecochrane.com/v3/2006/09/15/tetris-should-be-eve...</a> [1] <a href="http://archive.casio.com/products/archive/watches/databank/dbc150-1/" rel="nofollow">http://archive.casio.com/products/archive/watches/databank/d...</a> [2] <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/timepieceslove/6362901777/" rel="nofollow">https://www.flickr.com/photos/timepieceslove/6362901777/</a>

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mtwover 8 years ago

This reads like someone who's fallen in love with his Apple Watch but actually never used a Garmin or a Fitbit and doesn't really get why someone would spend $200 or $400 on a Garmin.It's like someone who used a DSLR camera all his life and then tries to write why GoPro don't make any sense, without every trying one.The writing and the graphs are nice though. Now go out of your ivory tower

1_2__3over 8 years ago

It wasn't until I was 2/3rds of the way through the article that the supporting evidence he's provided wasn't an indictment of the viability of smartwatches as even a product, and was only an effort to demonstrate how dominant Apple is. It's completely baffling. He's completely ignoring that all the numbers he gives in the article paint a picture of a failing/foundering product segment that if anything are a compelling argument for Apple to exit the space now before it's too late.

pklauslerover 8 years ago

The idiom "elephant in the room" means "a difficult-to-discuss problem that we all know we have to talk about but that we're all pretending doesn't exist". I don't see how the title here is relevant for the linked article, which is a dull summary of low sales of "smart" watches and how most of them are Apples.

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kolemcraeover 8 years ago

We really are in an awkward place because people simply aren't seeing the value in smart watches just yet.The technology is also just a bit behind.People see it as geeky and not really solving any problems they have.Personally I am a fan of the new hybrid watches that are coming out.They look great (they look exactly like classic watches, because they are), the battery issue is gone (modern hybrids last up to 6 months or longer) and do what people really want a smart watch to do:see if that notification is something worth taking your phone out for. (most hybrids have different symbols or vibrations or lights that show what it is and who its from).Throw in the activity tracking and controlling your music from your wrist and you have the perfect combo.If the marketing is done right I can see hybrids really taking off.

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niftichover 8 years ago

I'd re-order the 'four reasons' for the Apple Watch's success and put 'it's made by Apple' up top, which is a superset of its integration with the iPhone.Apple's brand power and brand loyalty are well-reported and much-discussed, and compare favorably to Samsung's try-everything-and-see-what-doesn't-fail approach -- all the while being a mainstream brand with an appeal that transcends several income bands, and not just a purely luxury aspirational product for the ultra-rich.

bryanlarsenover 8 years ago

Pebble was a great little company, and could have stayed a great little company, but somehow everybody decided that smartwatches were the next big thing. Pebble started hiring to grow into a billion dollar company, ran out of money and died.

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chetanahujaover 8 years ago

Smartwatches are today where iPhone was in 2008-9 timeframe. If and when technology in smartwatches get to a price-point where value/price ratio becomes hard to ignore for the global middle classes (like smartphones hit in about 2009-2010 timeframe), Android watches will flood the market and take it over. If that time ever comes.What seems much more likely to me is that middle-class wrist space will be claimed more by fitness devices which encroach more and more on the smartwatch territory without all the frills. E.g. Something like Xiomi Miband 2 at ~$40 is hard to resist with a tiny LED display and 20 day (yes.. actual 20 days) battery life. What I want on my wrist is something tiny, cheap, waterproof and hardy I can wear and forget (for weeks on end) as opposed to something bulky, delicate, not quite waterproof (say, in the swimming pool) and requires nightly charging. Who needs that?

quanticleover 8 years ago

One thing the article doesn't talk about is how sustainable the Apple Watch's dominance is going to be. The iPod gained dominance via its superior UI (namely, the clickwheel), but what allowed it to sustain that dominance was the fact that iTunes' music selection and integration with the iPod was unparalleled. Does Apple have a similar advantage with iOS/watchOS and the Apple Watch?

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tdburnover 8 years ago

Siri for sending txt messages is much more useful on the Apple watch.Also checking messages is more discrete and less disruptive with the apple watch. Use mine constantly for this.Don't care about the health trackers, wish I could delete that completely

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doucheover 8 years ago

If I want a watch, I want a $20 Timex beater that will go until it is physically smashed up or the battery dies years later. Not a very expensive, fragile, fiddly, power-hungry gizmo.

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sssilverover 8 years ago

I would love me an Apple Watch, and I would pay double the price, if only the damn thing lasted at least a month on a single charge.Unfortunately, the technology just isn't there.

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yaloginover 8 years ago

Much more interesting to me is the impact of smart watches on the high end regular watch category. I have a feeling that category has been rejuvenated by the Apple watch. I would love some actual numbers on that though.

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gregmacover 8 years ago

Several months ago I decided to buy a Huawei watch [0] - black with metal band. It's a good-looking, comfortable watch, and reasonably functional. I had been wanting to get an all-black watch anyway, and one day when I saw this on sale I decided to give it a shot.The big draws for me were the full circle face (I don't like the look of the square ones or the 'flat tire' on some of the earlier cirlce watch faces), the fact it looks like a basically normal watch, and that it runs Android Wear (I considered a Samsung Gear, but I don't like that it's within the Samgsung software ecosystem).I wear it pretty much every day, though I often take it off while I'm coding/keyboarding (which I've done whenever I wore a watch).I've never wore a watch while I sleep, and always just put it on my nightstand beside the bed. The magnetic base is on my nightstand, and it takes about 2 extra seconds to put it on the charger vs just set it down, so I generally charge it every night. I've forgotten a couple times, and it easily gets through two days anyway.For me the most useful things are message notifications and the ability to reply quickly with a couple canned responses and agenda.I actually use Microsoft's Outlook watch face. The outer permiter shows blocks of time for the next 12 hours where something is scheduled and it's pretty cool. I didn't find any other faces that had quite the same functionality, but I think I could build one using one of the custom watch face apps, I just haven't bothered to spend the time yet.I don't use the fitness tracking on it. An interesting side effect though is that my phone counts more steps. When I'm sitting at my desk, I tend to take my watch off but keep my phone in my pocket -- so if I get up to go to someone else's desk, bathroom or get coffee, my phone counts those steps whereas before I had the watch, I'd often take my phone out and then forget it on my desk when I did those things.The Google Authenticator app is almost useful on it, but it generally only works if I've recently opened it on my phone. I rarely have to use it more than once in day, so I just use my phone.Weather is useful. Oh, I also use Stocard to manually enter loyalty numbers at a gas pump. I've never tried using in store.It's kind of neat for controlling Google Music whether I'm listening with bluetooth or casting to my living room stereo, but not something I use regularly nor would miss if it didn't exist.I don't really use any other apps on it. I had to block quite a few notifications of random things -- it seems everyone thinks their app notifications are really important and should show up my on wrist.People find it a combination of fascinating/impressive/weird that I can pull up a live HD view of my baby camera (via TinyCam connected to a Foscam HD IP camera). I don't find that to be a useful feature so don't do it other than when my wife asks me to show someone.So I know there's a lot of negativity here about 'smart' watches, but overall I'm pretty happy with it and really have no big complaints. It's got a couple handy functions vs a normal watch. It costs within the same ballpark as what I was going to spend on a watch anyway (I'm not a watch guy). It looks like a regular watch (a few times I've had someone see me activate it and say something to the effect of "oh, it's a smart watch! I was wondering how you could tell time on that blank black face".[0] <a href="http://consumer.huawei.com/en/wearables/huawei-watch/index.htm" rel="nofollow">http://consumer.huawei.com/en/wearables/huawei-watch/index.h...</a>

dumb-saintover 8 years ago

Boring

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