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Where are we on the actual math of solar power?

6 pointsby randomnumber314over 8 years ago
I&#x27;ve seen several articles and threads lately that make claims of solar energy matching or surpassing that of more traditional (coal, gas) energy.<p>What&#x27;s the &quot;simple verdict&quot; on it--is there simple math?

2 comments

CyberFonicover 8 years ago
As an approximation solar flux is about 1kW &#x2F; m^2. Last time I looked the efficiency of panels was about 20% so we can generate about 200W &#x2F; m^2 for at most 6 hours a day. The USA power usage &#x2F; day is 4^15 W.hr.<p>As 1km^2 = 1,000,000 m^2. So taking the power usage, we divide by solar flux, by number of hours of high solar input, by 200 W &#x2F; m^2, by area conversion, and get approx 3,000,000 km^2. Since the USA is 10,000,000 km^2, we would need to cover 1&#x2F;3 of the country with solar panels to generate enough electricity, mostly down south where the sun shines the most. Alaska would be spared.<p>Since we use power 24 hours a day and can only expect to generate at peak rate for 6 hours, we need to store the power in batteries. Not to mention that not every day is sunny. It sometimes rains, panels get covered in dust and need cleaning, stuff breaks down, etc.<p>A Tesla PowerWall stores approx 120KWhr &#x2F; m^3. So 4^15 &#x2F; 120^3 = 33^9 m^3 just for the batteries, not including cabling, racking, etc. To get an idea of how this compares, Trump Tower in Chicago is approx 80,000 m^3. So we&#x27;d need 400,000 of them to house the batteries and this only for one day&#x27;s worth of power.<p>Of course, none of the foregoing considers the power required to make the solar panels, the mounting hardware, the batteries, the housing and new power-lines. The math just gets more complicated. But if you were to consider every step from beach sand to working solar panels you will find that the lifetime energy produced by solar panels is less than that which was used to produce them in the first place. I read an article to this effect once, but can&#x27;t find it. Google is your friend if you are interested to research further.
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vectorwhatover 8 years ago
I&#x27;d like to see the math myself. I have the suspicion that there&#x27;s funny math involved, like when the nuclear industry forgets the cost of warehousing nuclear waste for 100 000 years.<p>My most pressing question is how the capital costs are factored in. China built a huge PV capacity and arguably that made the price of panels collapse. Also, the semiconductor industry had been indirectly subsidizing the PV industry by upgrading their old fabs.<p>I also really don&#x27;t understand how PV can be cheaper than Concentrated Solar Power &lt; literally just a bunch of mirrors aimed at a normal thermal plant.<p>Lot&#x27;s of funny numbers, lots of questions, few open source gitted models available to play with.