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Some implications of the Bank of England comparing itself to the MetOffice

26 pointsby mr_tyzicover 8 years ago

2 comments

Normal_gaussianover 8 years ago
The largest problem with forecasting in economics is surely that others are also forecasting and attempting to manipulate the system. With weather forecasting the result doesn't change just because it can be calculated.
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nlover 8 years ago
I don&#x27;t get it.<p>Of course the economy is non-deterministic. That doesn&#x27;t mean that useful forecasts can&#x27;t be made. Statistical models are used because of this.<p>I agree of course that deriving and presenting a single forecast from a statistical model is a dangerous process. Perhaps this was the link the author was portraying by their quest for an Isobar map rather than just &quot;Rain&#x2F;Non rain&quot;.<p>(Also, I see others are looking at &quot;economic forecasting&quot; as price forecasting. I read this more as macro-economic forecasting, in which the outcomes are much to manipulate)
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