My wife is an aspiring novelist (on her 9th draft of the novel) with an MFA in fiction and some experience working for a literary agent. Some perspective from that side:<p>- 99% of all drafts sent to literary agents are objectively non-publishable. Simple lack of quality, lack of maturity, or other quantifiable factors. One or two drafts is not enough, even for experienced established novelists. Sadly, you can often tell within the first 5 pages, and even within the first paragraph.<p>- Out of the 1% that have the potential to be publishable, at least 4 drafts, and often much more, are required to reach the quality desired to actually be publishable.<p>- Good novels that are simply not what the agent/publisher is looking for at that time is also a factor, but a very distant one relative to just quality of work.<p>- In fact, if your novel is "good" but the agent/publisher is not inclined to pick it up, they are more inclined to ask for a full draft, to give great editorial notes, or to give referrals to other agents/publishers.<p>- If an agent thinks that they cannot take a specific "Good" book to market, they will frequently give pertinent feedback and often suggest specific revisions in order to make such a book marketable.<p>- At PNWA and other literary conferences vast majority of attendees bring single or maybe two-draft.<p>I should note that "number of drafts" is not an absolute requirement. Different folks write differently, and having a high number of iterations on your novel is not an indication of quality, rather than indication of prerequisite work required to produce a good product.<p>So while the publishing world is far from perfect, and both publishers and agents tend to gravitate towards what's fashionable, the reality is that the vast majority of aspiring work is simply far from finished, despite the authors' claims (this doesn't preclude garbage like "50 shades" from seeing the light of day, mind you).<p>Self-publishing gives those 99% a window to self-publish with only marginal quality controls. This in a way has the potential to overwhelm the system, and the objectively higher quality works can get drowned out in the noise.<p>Not to mention that, once self-published, a book is highly unlikely to be re-published by a traditional publisher, especially for a first-time author.<p>I'll close this tirade on a positive message. If you're a writer, you've already succeeded. The inner battles fought every single day for months and years on end alone make you a winner.