Tesla went public on 29 June 2010 [1]. Since then, it has traded 1,677 days. It's average (median) movement, from open to close, is -0.01% (-0.09%). There have been 50 days when Tesla stock <i>fell</i> at least 5% and 53 days where Tesla stock <i>rose</i> at least 5%. So about 6% of the time, historically, it's "tanked" or "boomed" by a similar amount. (By coïncidence, the average >=5% movement is +7.452% while the average <=5% movement is -7.458%.)<p>Note: this is not a traditional presentation of volatility. Its point is to narrate, not power trades.<p>---<p>So what should you be looking at? One, there is heavy bearish sentiment around Tesla, representing about 30% of its float [2]. Short interest ratio "is the ratio of tradable shares being shorted to shares in the market" [3].<p>Two, Musk's reality-distortion field just faltered. None of Musk's companies have ever been realistic about timelines. But having a Goldman Sachs analyst publicly counter Tesla just a week after "Musk said the firm’s new vehicle is on schedule to arrive in July" is a new level of assertiveness.<p>This is salient given Tesla's short-term need to raise boatloads of money. I'd keep an eye on Musk positioning back-ups to Wall Street through political channels, <i>e.g.</i> low-cost 'infrastructure' or 'domestic manufacturing' financing and/or government contracts, while he repairs his warp field.<p>[1] <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.#IPO_and_Model_S" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.#IPO_and_Model_S</a><p>[2] <a href="http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=tsla&submit=Short+Quote™" rel="nofollow">http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=tsla&submit=Short+Quote™</a><p>[3] <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_interest_ratio" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_interest_ratio</a><p><i>Disclaimer: this is not investment advice. Please don't be a numpty and trade based on Internet comments.</i>
It baffles me how all these smart people completely don't get Elon or Tesla.<p>Maybe it's hard to understand for some that money is not the ultimate motivator? I'm pretty sure that Tesla could be a profitable company today if they stopped all investments and just focused on selling amazing Model S (who needs AP2?) (best car ever made in opinion of many reviewers!). But they're a tech company that happens to make cars (among many other things), not a traditional car company. That's why they should be valued at tech company criteria. They're doing what all the tech "unicorns" are doing - burning through cash by investing in stuff that will give them massive advantage in the future. Why profit when you can grow massively? (hello Gigafactory! hello Solar City!)<p>Sure, I can see how this is not a company to invest in during daily trade. But it's not a company that ever said it's in it for the quick buck. 10 years ago it was failing in delivery of Roadster. 5 years ago it was failing in delivery of Model S and 2 years ago it was failing in Model X. If you ask me, I'd love to fail on the scale Elon and Tesla fail. Unless something really really random happens, Tesla is not going down anytime soon. Sure, M3 is risky, Solar City deal might be iffy, but I think some of the smartest people in the world are running this company, they're not gonna flip it.<p>I mean, a chat app aims to be valued at $25bn vs a company that delivered almost 200k feats of engineering in the last 10 years and everyone is laughing at their current valuation of $40bn. What is wrong with the world?
Anyone knows the status of these loans?<p>Elon Musk Is Borrowing Another $150 Million From Goldman Sachs To Buy More Tesla Stock (2013)<p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com.au/elon-musk-borrows-150-million-to-buy-tesla-2013-5" rel="nofollow">http://www.businessinsider.com.au/elon-musk-borrows-150-mill...</a>
Wall Street really doesn't like companies doing things with a promised payoff beyond the present fiscal year. That's what they're doing at TSLA. Sure, a lot of it ("Gigafactories!!!!!") is ego driven, not economy-of-scale driven. But they will need the manufacturing capacity as electric storage becomes more common.<p>Don't forget, TSLA is an energy company. Their present products have wheels because rich dopes like me will spend money on them, and because there's some low-hanging fruit in transportation energy in this decade (not this fiscal year).<p>But long term their products are going to be as ubiquitous as household electric meters and just as boring.<p>If I had a bunch of shares of TSLA and a kid entering college, I might sell some of them at the present price. But that doesn't make them a bad investment.
This narrative explains why there can be no "winning strategy" in equities investment (apart from investing in an index fund). The widely followed analysts who recommend selling TSLA shares based on what they <i>expect</i> to happen, make their prediction come true by speaking publicly (an "announcement effect") -- compare the rate of change in the stock price when the "experts" aren't offering their advice to the public.<p>It also builds the reputation of the analysts -- the more correct calls they make, the more wise they seem. The more wise they seem, the more the public follows their advice. The more the public follows their advice, the more "correct" calls they seem to have made.<p>The real winners are those who make their moves <i>the day before</i> the experts speak, which is why insider trading is illegal.<p><a href="http://arachnoid.com/equities_myths/" rel="nofollow">http://arachnoid.com/equities_myths/</a>
I wouldn't call it tanking. I'd say correction. Since Dec 2nd, $TSLA has been up over 40%. Today's action brings it down to up 35%.<p><a href="https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=0&chds=1&chdv=0&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1488256521671&chddm=22678&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:TSLA&ntsp=0&ei=B_60WImPCIHRjAH27rbYBA" rel="nofollow">https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=0&chds=1&chdv=0&...</a>
Part of me really wants to read this headline as - "Tesla retaliates with heavy armored vehicles after creditor denounces them to the public"
I'm not generally a conspiracy theorist, but Trump is friends with the oil & gas industry, Tesla and the gigafactories are a direct threat to that industry, and GS is embedded deeply in this administration.<p>Tesla is doing what we as a world should be promoting, that is to stop pushing oil & gas exploration and pushing sustainable energies.<p>There is an energy war. Tesla is doing better than anyone expected from a science perspective. There is a lot of money at stake in oil, gas, coal, and electricity (in its current form).<p>I expect this administration to drop the EC subsidies at some point, but retain the O&G exploration subsidies.<p>The Koch brothers are probably somewhere in this mix as well.