Much of the gains are coming from a huge increase in the (more expensive) Model X deliveries.<p><pre><code> 2016 Q1 model S: 12,420
2017 Q1 model S: 13,450
2016 Q1 model X: 2,400
2017 Q1 model X: 11,550
</code></pre>
For guidance, Tesla wrote in their 2016 Q4 letter (dated Feb 22, 2017):<p>> We expect to deliver 47,000 to 50,000 Model S and Model X vehicles combined in the first half of 2017<p>So they're on track.
Regarding the price of TSLA, perhaps someone can help:
If Tesla were to somehow sell 500,000 Model 3's in 2018, and make a net profit of 15% on each $35,000 car (very high, the auto industry majors make ~5%), and somehow had all the capital necessary paid for, and no financing or other costs they would earn:<p>500,000 * $5,250 = $2.6 BB in profit<p>With ~160 MM shares outstanding that's an EPS of ~$16.<p>At $270/share, that's a P/E of ~17 -- cheap, but not incredibly so.<p>In other words, if everything goes perfectly, buying shares now would be "sort of cheap", equivalent to a ~6% return. Obviously, the shares have a lot of risk.<p>This is practically best-case. So how do you justify buying at these levels, with the risks involved? You can't say "growth" without modelling it. Do you expect TSLA to sell a million cars a year, or more with these types of margins? Where will the earnings come from?
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