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Cryptoeconomics 101

264 pointsby ntomainoalmost 8 years ago

13 comments

trunnellalmost 8 years ago
It&#x27;d be cool to have digital cash, but I think we&#x27;re decades away.<p>Unfortunately, it seems that cryptocurrency enthusiasts focus more on the crypto than on the currency. To be taken seriously, there need to be realistic approaches to things like monetary policy. The ungoverned money supply of cryptocurrencies seems to be touted as a feature, but AFAICT, it&#x27;s a fatal bug.<p>Think of the money supply as the denominator and total addressable value as the numerator; the goal with a stable currency is to keep the <i>ratio</i> constant over time (or as close as possible).<p>The fixed money supply of bitcoin is a joke. If the currency were successful, bitcoin&#x27;s fixed supply (a constant denominator) wouldn&#x27;t keep up with global growth (a growing numerator), which would make the currency more valuable over time. This would result in a deflationary spiral (no one spends the money b&#x2F;c they&#x27;re better off waiting and letting it appreciate, which leads to less spending, which leads to even more deflation, etc.)<p>The etherium money supply is said to be TBD, but why would anyone be optimistic? Consider the layers of analysis underpinning the last Fed statement in May:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.federalreserve.gov&#x2F;monetarypolicy&#x2F;files&#x2F;monetary20170503a1.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.federalreserve.gov&#x2F;monetarypolicy&#x2F;files&#x2F;monetary...</a><p>A) political philosophy (for the Fed, the goal is to maximize employment and stabilize prices), B) macroeconomic understanding (for example, the relationship between money supply and growth), C) economic data collection (employment, prices, inventory, output, etc.)<p>That&#x27;s incomplete, but consider: how much of that kind of thing is even approached by any cryptocurrency community? Does anyone think the same kind of extreme care taken by the Fed is going to be replicated?<p>When know-nothing articles like this one pass for news, well... let&#x27;s just say the emperor&#x27;s naked.
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kneelalmost 8 years ago
This submission is an ethereum pump article.<p>It has never made sense to have turing complete currencies. Ethereum will continue to be a great idea in the short term and a terrible idea in the long term.
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irlnalmost 8 years ago
An understanding of how to authenticate the blockchain and transactions is obviously essential, however, I haven&#x27;t seen the same level of discussion on the affects of managing (or lack of managing) the crypto-currency&#x27;s money supply. With bitcoin the total number is finite. With etherium, it appears that money supply management is being debated. IMHO this management of the money supply is a huge issue.
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jancsikaalmost 8 years ago
&gt; Decentralized P2P systems based on cryptography were not new in 2009 (you probably heard of Kazaa and Bittorrent prior). What these earlier decentralized systems lacked was economic incentives, and the lack of baked in economic incentives is arguably what stifled these early P2P systems from persisting and thriving over time.<p>Both Kazaa and Bittorrent worked because of economic incentives.<p>For example-- if you visited what.cd before it got shut down, you would find all these beefy seedboxes just sitting there waiting to shoot data at noobs to improve their ratios.<p>If there&#x27;s a distinction to be made, it&#x27;s that the P2P filesharing ratios aren&#x27;t fungible.
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danblickalmost 8 years ago
The main reason I don&#x27;t own any bitcoin is that I don&#x27;t think the economics of mining make sense in the long term.<p>Specifically: bitcoin depends on <i>distributed</i> mining power in order to prevent individual miners from being able to manipulate the blockchain.<p>However, if you accept that (1) there are economies of scale in mining, and (2) miners are rational and will only mine when they can make a profit, then I see no reason to believe mining power should stay &quot;distributed&quot; rather than develop into a monopoly.<p>I realize this hasn&#x27;t happened yet, but I don&#x27;t think it makes sense to base a currency on such shaky foundations.<p>The basic argument is also made in the paper discussed here:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cryptocoinsnews.com&#x2F;declining-profitability-for-new-miners-threatens-bitcoin-decentralization&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cryptocoinsnews.com&#x2F;declining-profitability-for-...</a><p>also:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;abs&#x2F;1603.05240" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;abs&#x2F;1603.05240</a><p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;ieeexplore.ieee.org&#x2F;abstract&#x2F;document&#x2F;7789434&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;ieeexplore.ieee.org&#x2F;abstract&#x2F;document&#x2F;7789434&#x2F;</a>
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Uptrendaalmost 8 years ago
I&#x27;ve been searching for the perfect word that encapsulates everything we do in the blockchain space and I guess &quot;cryptoeconomics&quot; is really the best fit. It talks about crypto but it also alludes to the motivations of participants in one word and seems to be able to be applied to both blockchain engineering and smart contract protocols. I guess I&#x27;ll be using this term in the future
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bmh_caalmost 8 years ago
Wow. It&#x27;s just distributed signed ledgers.
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rnernentoalmost 8 years ago
Lest anyone be confused this is an obnoxious and not so subtle sales pitch for Ethereum, it isn&#x27;t particularly informative.
nannalalmost 8 years ago
&gt;This approach has historically been thought of as insecure (the nothing at stake problem and the long-range attack have been two of the major unsolved vulnerabilities), but Vitalik and team have been diligently working on solutions to these problems. Ethereum now runs on proof-of-work, but the expectation is to switch to proof-of-stake in the next 12–18 months.<p>Well with all the other stuff on his plate solving a very difficult problem in the next 12-18 months will be easy and luckily there&#x27;s no actual time limit aside from the same one he baked into etherium.
rrggrralmost 8 years ago
From an earlier comment yesterday:;<p>Etherium is a panacea for anyone hoping to reduce contractional friction, and I believe we&#x27;re at the tip of the tip of the iceberg if the tech and ether are here to stay.<p>Bitcoin, on the other hand, still concerns me. If&#x2F;when BTC is makes its appearance in the every day lives of ordinary people, its anonymity value will have eroded significantly. Traditional currencies have not yet started to compete with BTC, but they can and they will if necessary. Try getting a mortgage, car loan, business loan with BTC as collateral as one example of where my concerns rest. Look at the grossly inverted price of BTC and gold prices (artificially assuming 1BTC = 1Oz).<p>Before BTC there was growing dissatisfaction with money center currencies that persists today. BTC &#x27;took the edge off&#x27; for many in those circles and may have relieved pressure on gold prices. I don&#x27;t necessarily believe this, but I&#x27;ve read in economic revisionist circles that BTC would be means for certain central banks to redirect some demand and attention for precious metals away from their vaults and toward an asset class they, better than anyone, are capable of mining with their existing computing infrastructure. So, by invention or acquiescence, BTC serves money center interests, for now, but not indefinitely.<p>BTC remains a highly speculative and risky asset&#x2F;network in my mind.
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daraosnalmost 8 years ago
Yes, cryptocurrencies and tokens have a lot of speculation from a dollar price perspective, and there are still non-believers and manipulators, but the blockchain and smart contracts technology is brilliant and the idea is already on people&#x27;s mind, and it will only become stronger, despite of the price.<p>Social Network: For years I&#x27;ve seen people complaining about Facebook, others building alternatives. If there is one way that Facebook could be defeated and decentralized is by using a P2P blockchain social network. Take for example Steem, not perfect but proof of concept works.<p>Advertisement: another example is BAT (by the JS inventor), funded in 30 seconds, it could be a real threat to Google. Just pair it with Mist browser and ENS, and you can see the potential.<p>...<p>I think it&#x27;s no longer about Bitcoin, it&#x27;s about a profound decentralization of the Internet. Some call it the Web 3.0.
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zbyalmost 8 years ago
I really like what Buterin writes - but Cryptoeconomics is a misleading name - it more like crypto-game-theory i.e. much narrower than the name suggests.
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quinndupontalmost 8 years ago
I have a short section on cryptoeconomics in my upcoming book, which I&#x27;ll post below (still developing, and still in draft). Unlike practically every other description of the &quot;field&quot;, I don&#x27;t take it for granted and don&#x27;t uncritically adopt it. (Feedback always welcome!)<p>&lt;snip&gt; The technological imperative of smart contacts and blockchain technology presupposes rational contracting, which leads to particular moral and epistemological positions. Early rationalizations of the moral and epistemological position of cryptographically-assured smart contracts can be found in Reagle (1996) and Szabo (1997). Since that time, several authors have further developed the concept, leading to what is today sometimes called “cryptoeconomics.” This emerging field deploys the technological affordances of (public key) cryptography: specifically, the ability to authenticate and verify parties; ensure non-repudiation of data; and in some cases, selectively reveal identities (as with blind signatures) (Chaum, 1982). Leveraging these cryptographic affordances, authors use the closely-related fields of rational choice theory and game theory to construct protocols and arrangements for creating social behaviours. In an early speech, Buterin suggests that, with cryptoeconomics, “as soon as you have a decentralized consensus framework that controls an internal asset and there is this valuation equilibrium where people care about it… the cryptosystem has the capability to have real world consequences…” (Vitalik Buterin: Cryptoeconomic Protocols In the Context of Wider Society, 2014). For instance, Buterin considers a number of rational choice strategies, including the prisoner’s dilemma, Nash equilibria, hawk&#x2F;dove games, markets, reputation, and an odd characterization of legal courts. Following Nick Szabo’s earlier discussion of smart contracts, Buterin focuses much of his discussion of cryptoeconomics on Schelling points.<p>Schelling points, or focal points, are a game theory concept developed by Thomas Schelling in his book The Strategy of Conflict (1960). The strategy allows two or more parties to reach agreement in an environment with little information and no possibility of communication. The key insight of Schelling’s theory is that coordination is easier when people’s attention is drawn to prominent or focal points. Schelling offers the example of two people in New York who need to meet in an undetermined location without having prior communication. According to Schelling, on game theory assumptions, each party will likely pick Grand Central Station because in a world in which many possibilities are equally likely, humans look for patterns or unusual focal points of reference. The assumption made by each party is that if I think Grand Central Station is a good meeting spot, the other person may think the same.<p>Similarly, in his descriptions of cryptoeconomics, Buterin offers the example of picking matching numbers from a list without coordination or communication (Vitalik Buterin: Cryptoeconomic Protocols In the Context of Wider Society, 2014). People will, according to the theory, look for something—anything—that makes one number stand out—perhaps an even number, or a number with many zeros, or a well-known lucky number. Thus, given the following numbers: 2349 65 22 100 932, both parties will likely choose “100.” In Western, decimal-based numeracy, 100 “stands out” from the rest of the numbers, and therefore, lacking any other way to coordinate, the rational choice is to assume a common set of beliefs with the person you are trying to coordinate with. Of course, these choices are culture and context specific. With numbers, other patterns might be significant (such as “lucky” numbers), and the same goes with meeting in New York: as times, people, and places change there might be other possible focal points—Times Square, One World Trade Center, Brooklyn Bridge, or the New York Public Library. In these scenarios, all available options might be “weak” focal points. Consider the following scenario where there might be only weak focal points: negotiations between a workers’ union and a business break down and cannot make progress. On the theory of Schelling points, this might be due to lack of strong focal points, in the sense of shared interests and values. Until some stronger focal point can be found, coordination will not be effective. On the other hand, some focal points are very “hard”—so hard that they curtail negotiation. For example, in most of the Western world, the price tag on a retail good is not usually an invitation to start haggling (Szabo, 1997). The stated price is a hard focal point that communicates the context and sometimes the parameters of the contract.<p>While the use of Schelling points is quite powerful and can be used to carefully navigate social contexts, it is not without issue. At its heart, like all rational choice and game theory strategies, a rational (or maximizing) actor is usually assumed, along with some kind of contractual framework or rationality. Fundamentally, cryptoeconomics fails to fully recognize that actual societies are also the result of war, exploitation, racism, and patriarchy (Held, 1987, p. 113). Patriarchy is an especially important value to consider for cryptoeconomics, since complete freedom and equality—the ability to sincerely engage in contractual negotiations—is a uniquely male capacity in most modern contexts. Rational choice or game theory assumptions lead to a shallow view of human sociality, which is likely to produce bad ethics and&#x2F;or lead to significant errors in use and development (as with The DAO in 2016, see Chapter 8). One alternative to this kind of rationality, suggests Virginia Held, is to focus on “relations of concern and caring and empathy and trust” rather than a fiction about ideal contracts (Held, 1987, p. 125). Such a suggestion does not mean that we should dismiss the role of contracts in society (“smart” or otherwise), rather it implies that contracts themselves are embedded in social contexts.