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Optimizing things in the USSR (2016)

153 pointsby yoloswaginsalmost 8 years ago

29 comments

Animatsalmost 8 years ago
Gosplan never had anywhere near enough compute power or good data to do that job.<p>The data problem could have been solved with bar-coding. That&#x27;s how WalMart got tight control over their inventory. Master Control in Bentonville, Arkansas can see pallet 2345235 leaving warehouse 242 on truck 24343 headed for store 2514. If store 2514 doesn&#x27;t report arrival of that pallet, questions will be asked and the pallet will be found or somebody will be in big trouble. When the pallet is found, broken down, and product placed on shelves, the items will eventually show up in cash register data. If shelf inventory minus sales is not very close to incoming shipments, the &quot;shrinkage&quot; security people are informed and start looking for theft.<p>Gosplan had an annual planning cycle and monthly reporting. WalMart has a weekly planning cycle and daily reporting. A year was far too much lag for the system to work well. Although it did for heavy industry, where things take months anyway.<p>The huge linear programming problem isn&#x27;t insoluble. It&#x27;s a sparse matrix; potato chips don&#x27;t affect steel tubing much. There&#x27;s probably some way to come close to an optimal solution.[1] Sparse matrix techniques were in their infancy when the USSR was active, though.<p>[1] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.gurobi.com&#x2F;resources&#x2F;getting-started&#x2F;lp-basics" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.gurobi.com&#x2F;resources&#x2F;getting-started&#x2F;lp-basics</a>
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merrakshalmost 8 years ago
<i>The USSR had about 12 million types of goods. If you cross them over about 1000 possible locations, that gives you 12 billion variables, which according to Cosma would correspond to an optimization problem that would take a thousand years to solve on a modern desktop computer.</i><p>Modern (commercial and open-source) solvers of linear programming (LP) tackle problems of millions of variables in minutes. Most of those 12 billion variables would be cleared out (e.g. fixed to their lower bound, zero) in a pre-processing step.<p>Problems with variables that are constrained to be integer can take much longer, but they are orders of magnitude more efficient today than a few years ago.
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Pamaralmost 8 years ago
This is indeed an excellent article, I just want to add that Red Plenty is an amazing example of &quot;Scientist Fiction&quot; (<a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;bactra.org&#x2F;notebooks&#x2F;scientist-fiction.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;bactra.org&#x2F;notebooks&#x2F;scientist-fiction.html</a> - see also - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.librarything.com&#x2F;tag&#x2F;scientist+fiction" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.librarything.com&#x2F;tag&#x2F;scientist+fiction</a>) and definitely deserves to be read if you have any interest in technology, data, economics.<p>Spufford also wrote The Backroom Boys (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;Backroom-Boys-Secret-Return-British&#x2F;dp&#x2F;0571214967" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;Backroom-Boys-Secret-Return-British&#x2F;d...</a>) about British tech after WWII, definitely worth a read even if Red Plenty remains unsurpassed.<p>I&#x27;ll also add the Wayback Machine for the (now defunct) website created by the author for Red Plenty: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;web.archive.org&#x2F;web&#x2F;20160713031430&#x2F;http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.redplenty.com:80&#x2F;Red_Plenty&#x2F;Front_page.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;web.archive.org&#x2F;web&#x2F;20160713031430&#x2F;http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.redple...</a>
atemerevalmost 8 years ago
Planned economy is uncompetitive for more reasons than insufficient computing power.<p>You can&#x27;t plan innovation. It is hard to plan for knowledge economy in general (material production is increasingly a smaller part of total GDP — something that early Communist theorists failed to predict).<p>Capitalism is automatic, self-correcting, parallel optimization process. It is asymptotically optimal.
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flavio81almost 8 years ago
This is one of the best articles i&#x27;ve read!!<p>The article makes me think that the failure of the planned economy system would probably not have happened if they had modern computers (and computing tools we take for granted today). The author thinks this would only be possible in about 100 years because he considers that <i>everything</i> needs to be considered in the model. However, one could make the case for doing central planning of a limited set of goods which are interdependent, of course.<p>AI being all the rage in the news these days, and pretty much in fashion, who knows, perhaps automatic optimization of a country&#x27;s economy will start to be talked about as a Good Thing To Have?<p>&lt;start dancing, comrade...&gt;
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azernikalmost 8 years ago
The computational complexity seems to depend on the desire to solve all the problems at once. But how about solving just the warped incentive structures of capitalism?<p>Simulate perfectly rational economic actors that are only concerned with the next upstream and downstream hops in the market, have them take into account the &quot;taxes&quot; and &quot;credits&quot; of externalities without any of the pesky politics, and distribute in-simulation &quot;purchasing power&quot; to end consumers in whatever way you deem fit. You could even distribute this end-user power to <i>actual</i> consumers, in order to allow them the freedom to input their desires into the system.<p>Basically, remove the capitalists from the capitalist system; or, just use the computational model of capitalism without actually giving <i>power</i> to the computational nodes.
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exrationealmost 8 years ago
There are a factions in the strong AI community whose members espouse the idea that a planned economy would become feasible given greater computational capacity and better software.<p>I have to think that the major objection to this is that the complexity of a socioeconomy also scales with computational capacity. Planning an economy is quite likely always beyond the capacity of any portion of entities within that economy, for the same knowledge problem.<p>Running up a rigorous approach to proof&#x2F;disproof of that would be an interesting exercise, of course.<p>But it is an interesting example of the point that AI has a way of being all things to all people, when rigorous testing of ideas is not applied. For the would-be communists and socialists it is a road to a perfect planned technocracy, regardless of the fact that this looks less than feasible.
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flavio81almost 8 years ago
&quot;In soviet union, optimization problem solves YOU!&quot;<p>(The article includes a link to an article with such name, a good read for an in-depth discussion &#x2F; comment trail regarding optimization in the USSR &#x2F; CCCP:)<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;crookedtimber.org&#x2F;2012&#x2F;05&#x2F;30&#x2F;in-soviet-union-optimization-problem-solves-you" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;crookedtimber.org&#x2F;2012&#x2F;05&#x2F;30&#x2F;in-soviet-union-optimiza...</a>
pm90almost 8 years ago
Excellent post! Very well written an detailed in its analysis. Loved every part of it, especially in the end when the author speculates whether Central Planning could possibly work with the advances in technology in the future (TLDR: maybe).<p>This is actually pretty fascinating. If we reach a level of automation such that factories are completely automated, I wonder if the data that is gathered from all those factories, along with more powerful computers and algorithms in the future, would allow central planning to work better than no planning. Some of the problems mentioned by the author are caused simply by the data being wrong, because of lying factory managers: automated factories would eliminate that problem at least.<p>At the very least, I hope that in the future there will be a centrally planned economy managed by the government to provide a decent living standard to most citizens, while minimizing environmental impact. More productive or talented citizens would&#x2F;could choose to opt to earn more wealth and purchase from an open market.
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fetbaffealmost 8 years ago
Lots of people here confuses planning done in large corporations with central planning.<p>Even if corporations plans their entire operation it is not the same as central planning, because even if a corporation plans its production it cannot plan it sales. It can only estimate because it operates on a common market.<p>Estimation of sales plans hiring, production etc, however the actual real sales is a feedback loop into that process, where in a central planned system that feedback loop does not exist. Central planned system will just go on whatever the &quot;sales&quot;.
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ryandrakealmost 8 years ago
It&#x27;s funny how the vast majority of capitalist corporations consider capitalism as a sacrosanct principle, yet when you look at how they operate it&#x27;s basically Soviet-style central planning. The senior executive [nomenklatura] who, often, are treated More Equal Than Others, centrally plan who works on what and what resources they are allocated: a bureaucratic elite picking and choosing how the wealth of the company is redistributed and used among teams, as opposed to letting a market decide which projects live and die. As Ronald Coase pointed out, companies tend to be &quot;islands of central planning in a sea of market relationships.&quot;<p>Another parallel to the Soviets: Things like good-ol-boy networks and elite school alumni [membership in The Party] are largely what drives promotion within the higher ranks.
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Houshalteralmost 8 years ago
The computational complexity thing seems solvable. For one, it mentions today it would require 1,000 desktop computers to find the optimal solution. 1,000 computers is a pretty affordable thing for the benefit of managing an entire economy.<p>But most importantly you don&#x27;t need to find an optimal solution. Things like gradient descent and hillclimbing will very quickly find locally optimal solutions. That&#x27;s basically what capitalism is, prices and business demands propagate and sort of do gradient descent (but often very slowly and inefficiently.) Algorithms like scatter search and novelty search can be used to explore the wider search space and find the global optimum. E.g. &quot;what would the locally optimal solution be if we shut down this factory and built a new factory here, and would it be better?&quot;
philipkglassalmost 8 years ago
<i>As described above and in Cosma Shalizi’s post, the number of steps required to solve a linear programming problem with nn products and mm constraints is proportional to (m+n)3&#x2F;2n2(m+n)3&#x2F;2n2. The USSR had about 12 million types of goods. If you cross them over about 1000 possible locations, that gives you 12 billion variables, which according to Cosma would correspond to an optimization problem that would take a thousand years to solve on a modern desktop computer. However, if Moore’s Law holds up, it would be possible in 100 years to solve this problem reasonably quickly.</i><p>I found Red Plenty fascinating and I enjoyed the Crooked Timber seminar that Chris Said links to, particularly Shalizi’s post. I&#x27;m still wondering: why is the compute-unit &quot;a modern desktop computer?&quot; Is parallel scaling poor for this kind of problem?<p>If parallel scaling is poor, might better speedups be available with ASICs? Or are there heuristics that run faster and produce usually-close-to-optimal solutions on this type of problem? I&#x27;m just running through some common ways to accelerate solutions for compute-intensive tasks that run slowly on a single-socket of general purpose CPUs. For all I know, none of these avenues are promising.
Pamaralmost 8 years ago
Now that we are discussing Central Planned Economy I&#x27;d like to drop a link to a fascinating and mostly forgotten attempt to make it work in a more &quot;democratic&quot; way in Chile, during the short-lived Allende government: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Project_Cybersyn" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Project_Cybersyn</a>
CharlesDodgsonalmost 8 years ago
I too highly recommend Red Plenty, it&#x27;s one of my favourite books, I&#x27;d also recommend Cultural Babbage by the same author, it&#x27;s a compilation of essays on the topics of culture and technology, It&#x27;s wrote in the 90s and very interesting to read, to understand the relevance and the thinking of the day.
js8almost 8 years ago
I suspect the main reason why central planning fails is not actually the planning part. The problem is human hubris - the idea that if the plan fails, then all you need is a &quot;better&quot; plan that accounts for more things.<p>In the real world, things break constantly for various reasons. And there is a trade-off between efficiency and robustness. If you try to make something very very efficient (i.e. optimal), then you also make it very brittle. So for instance, in the communist economies (not that they wouldn&#x27;t have other problems, they were dictatorships after all), the planners would decide that it is &quot;optimal&quot; to have this one factory producing something, like computer chips. But then something got delayed there, and everybody who expected the thing to be delivered had to wait. These unexpected delays accumulated through this &quot;optimal&quot; solution.<p>I think main reason why capitalism works is actually because it is terribly inefficient. It duplicates a lot of work, through competition. But the robustness is much higher. And that&#x27;s why it&#x27;s a success and has higher overall economic throughput.<p>You can see this paradox in large corporations, which are, as many people noted here, centrally planned economies. They suffer from the same problem - human planners are trying to be too optimal, the robustness suffers, and the result is often spectacular internal failures.<p>It&#x27;s like with spacecrafts. Of course it would be more efficient if the spacecraft had only one engine, one computer, and so on. But what if it breaks? Then the whole mission fails. That&#x27;s why it needs backup engines, backup computers, and so on.
jonduboisalmost 8 years ago
The biggest mistake of communism is that it assumes that entrepreneurship is economically worthless. It&#x27;s literally the opposite extreme of capitalism which assumes that entrepreneurship is the most important profession.<p>I think communism might have worked better if it had given more autonomy to managers to make decisions and used output data for the previous year to decide budgets for each factory&#x2F;company.
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alistorivalmost 8 years ago
It&#x27;s worth noting that Chile under Allende was working on implementing a computer-based planning system[1], but unfortunately we don&#x27;t know how it might have worked out cause of the US-backed military coup shortly after :^(<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Project_Cybersyn" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Project_Cybersyn</a>
vbezhenaralmost 8 years ago
I&#x27;m still thinking that USSR approach to have planned economy is much better than free market economy in the long run. They just lacked proper software (and hardware) to do the proper planning and it turned out that at that time free market was better. But with today&#x27;s algorithms (or may be with tomorrow&#x27;s) country-scale planning should be possible and it will be much more efficient.<p>Other question is do we really need that efficiency? Robots are more efficient than people, so people are already losing their jobs and it&#x27;ll continue. Now with planned economy there will be much more jobs to lose. May be it&#x27;s better for our civilization not to be very efficient, at least at current period.
arcbytealmost 8 years ago
Very interesting article.<p>&gt; It is likely that many recommendations for the broader economy would have been ignored as well. For example, if a computer recommended that the price of heating oil should be doubled in the winter, how many politicians would let that happen?<p>The heating oil required to maintain temperatures in so many cubic feet of air space in the country, given some quantity of heaters at various levels of efficiency, themselves producable by the same giant calculation. The problem is the dimensions&#x2F;variables are endless and subject to change based on the uncalculable whims of people. Stopping at any one point is arbitrary
AnimalMuppetalmost 8 years ago
Say this is possible. Say this would even work (for some definition of &quot;work&quot;). I still have a nagging question: Is there any reason to suspect that this would work <i>better</i> than the current system? (Yes, I know, you can list all the problems produced by the current system. You can&#x27;t list all the problems that would be produced by the proposed new system, though, because you haven&#x27;t experienced them.)<p>I see comments saying that smartphones will provide the needed data to make this idea work well, but that doesn&#x27;t do anything to answer the question &quot;Will it be <i>better</i>?&quot;
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ramgoruralmost 8 years ago
What about a stochastic optimization techniques like this one described here?<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.human-competitive.org&#x2F;sites&#x2F;default&#x2F;files&#x2F;deb-myburgh-paper.pdf" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.human-competitive.org&#x2F;sites&#x2F;default&#x2F;files&#x2F;deb-myb...</a><p>The paper describes a real parameter function optimization problem, but the Gosplan was I think more of a combinatorial one. According to the author, the method described there can also be parallelized.
Asookaalmost 8 years ago
One thing I don&#x27;t see mentioned here is how miserable a centrally-planned economy is for the people living in it. My parents lived during the heyday of the Soviet Union and it was pretty awful.<p>As an example, let&#x27;s say you want to go and buy shoes. You go to the shoe store and you buy a pair in your number. You don&#x27;t actually get to choose, the shoes you can buy have already been made for you, you just have to pay for them the planned price you&#x27;re expected to pay for the pair of shoes. It&#x27;s also planned when these will wear out and you&#x27;ll need to go buy a new pair. In fact, all the pairs of shoes you&#x27;ll need to buy for the next five years have been planned.<p>You want something else than brown shoes? Fuck you (except if you&#x27;re high enough the totem pole that you get a choice between brown and black).<p>You want high-quality leather shoes? Fuck you.<p>You want to start your own shoe factory? Fuck you, the state owns all the factories.<p>You want to make your own shoes with leather? Fuck you, all the leather usage is planned centrally by the state using statistics.<p>You want to raise your own cow on your own land to have your own leather? Fuck you, fuck you and fuck you - you don&#x27;t get to own land, or have cows. The state owns all the land and all the cows. In fact, the state has already planned all the usage of the leather it will get from killing cows that are yet to even be born.<p>And shoes are just one good among many. If the state determines only 10% of the population gets to ride a bicycle, it will produce exactly that amount of bicycles. Central planning never speculatively overproduces, or even innovates, because that hinges on thinking you can sway the market this way or that. You think &quot;hey, I bet people will really want to buy wine-red shirts, instead of white striped shirts&quot;, so you try it out and you capture part of the market. Central planning can&#x27;t account for people coming up with ideas in the middle of a 5-year planning cycle.<p>Central planning is also a form of totalitarianism. Every single totalitarian system in history has always pivoted (if it didn&#x27;t start as) to a form of serfdom, with all benefits going to the people on top. It doesn&#x27;t matter if it&#x27;s a king, or &quot;The Party&quot;, C-level management always looks out for themselves first. A state with total power is a really shitty place to live in for most subjects.<p>That said, you could probably have some sort of rationally chosen economy just for the state&#x27;s own needs, i.e. the state takes care of the roads, so it needs this much asphalt, so taking a survey of the available factories, it should order from this and that factory for maximum quality at minimum price. Something like an alternative to public bids.<p>But a fully centrally planned economy only works with robotic workers that never ever consume or buy anything unplanned. You want to know why corruption was so pervasive? Because people want something more than only being allowed to buy thin brown leather shoes, blue jeans and white striped shirts. Centrally planned economy is something like India&#x27;s caste system on steroids.<p>If you still think central planning is a good idea, please talk to some people who lived in the USSR, they&#x27;re about 50-60 years old today and can still tell you good stories. Some of them speak good English. Then think really hard how you&#x27;ll make sure your proposed central planning system won&#x27;t devolve to that level of corruption.
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azernikalmost 8 years ago
I also highly recommend this blog post, which this article references and links to frequently: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;crookedtimber.org&#x2F;2012&#x2F;05&#x2F;30&#x2F;in-soviet-union-optimization-problem-solves-you&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;crookedtimber.org&#x2F;2012&#x2F;05&#x2F;30&#x2F;in-soviet-union-optimiza...</a>
codedokodealmost 8 years ago
I think a computer might do better planning decisions than humans do in a capitalist society. Problems like computational complexity or inprecise data apply to human managers too, and unlike them the computer doesn&#x27;t make mistakes and isn&#x27;t motivated to get maximum profit fot itself.
cmrdporcupinealmost 8 years ago
A good book on this topic (from a sympathetic, Marxian-economics POV) is <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.palgrave.com&#x2F;us&#x2F;book&#x2F;9780333495490" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.palgrave.com&#x2F;us&#x2F;book&#x2F;9780333495490</a><p>&quot;Problems of the Planned Economy&quot;
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Houshalteralmost 8 years ago
Another review on this book I liked <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;slatestarcodex.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;09&#x2F;24&#x2F;book-review-red-plenty&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;slatestarcodex.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;09&#x2F;24&#x2F;book-review-red-plenty&#x2F;</a>
coinalmost 8 years ago
-1 for mobile hostile website that disables zoom
adekokalmost 8 years ago
Even local optimizations are useful:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;books.google.ca&#x2F;books?id=NLRVWaNw76MC&amp;pg=PT28&amp;lpg=PT28&amp;dq=GM+paint+robot+bidding&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=AANDJ_pZ8D&amp;sig=eKJC_1NCjo27fPKexVc1y3aTIkw&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwih-KvA6a7UAhXG64MKHRlwBuIQ6AEILjAB#v=onepage&amp;q=GM%20paint%20robot%20bidding&amp;f=false" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;books.google.ca&#x2F;books?id=NLRVWaNw76MC&amp;pg=PT28&amp;lpg=PT...</a><p>GM updated their paint robots to &quot;bid&quot; on new jobs (i.e. cars). They ended up saving 1.5M a year. Not much, but multiple similar things add up.<p>i.e. when the price of the product accurately reflects the costs, the markets can be more efficient.