> and the blockchain, a type of decentralised ledger, could anonymise it<p>How would "the blockchain" anonymise anything? Isn't it the opposite, if all transactions are transparent?
> <i>The eventual disruption will come not from a traditional asset manager, but from a 22-year-old kid in Silicon Valley</i><p>Someone please prove me wrong, but I don't think this is a start-up idea.
The big problem is how would you sell this? It's going to be very difficult.<p>I have several comments:<p>(1) The idea is sufficiently complicated that average people won't understand it. And with retirement money, if they've managed to save some, the average Joe will be fearful about switching it to something new and different. (Bitcoin is complicated too, but the average Joe--not the techie Joe--is driven by greed if he gets into Bitcoin. There's a huge possible upside to Bitcoin, mining stocks, options and commodities trading, etc. No get-rich-quick option exists for a tontine.)<p>(2) The name tontine has to change. There are too many murder mystery and ghastly "death pool" associations. Beside changing the name, you need to tweak the concept just enough to deny that the new thing you're selling is a tontine. "No, ours is not a tontine because ours maximizes payout when it reaches 100 long-life members, not the last survivor as in a tontine."<p>(3) The only way I see tontines coming about is by edict. The teachers' pension fund or the government employee pension proclaims that they are switching, and that's that. Or they give employees a harsh choice: pay a huge fee to continue with the normal pension or enroll for free in the tontine.<p>I suppose a start-up could implement the technology and try to sell it to big pension funds. That's more like contract work rather than a high-growth business.
My grandfather just turned 100, and we have no idea how long he'll live. He could die tomorrow, or he could live another few years.<p>Most likely, I won't live to his age, but if I do, I don't want the money to run out.<p>I don't believe in leaving a large inheritance for my children. (They need to work for the position in society.)<p>Some kind of "outlive my savings" insurance is quite appealing because then I don't have to leave someone or something an inheritance.<p>Perhaps at a certain age, maybe 80, I could just turn over my retirement for a guaranteed payment until I die?
I'd encourage anyone interested in the subject to read this paper doesn't cover tontine's directly...<p><a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.25.4.143" rel="nofollow">https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.25.4.143</a>
Okay, so the argument against tontines that I know of is that it encourages murder, but that argument doesn't seem persuasive to me. The same can be said for life insurance, which is a commonplace financial instrument. Is there any other reason that tontines are bad?