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Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

120 pointsby jakartaalmost 15 years ago

24 comments

cagefacealmost 15 years ago
Mr. Grove correctly identifies the problem but avoids the obvious solution, perhaps because it's too painful to articulate. The phenomenally elevated standard of living that we have enjoyed in the U.S. since the end of WWII just isn't sustainable. The Chinese aren't devouring the tech market because they manage their economy. They're doing so because the Chinese worker will work for far, far less than any American worker. Americans currently still monopolize the high paying design &#38; research job market but there's no reason to expect that Asia will indefinitely play second fiddle here.<p>To put it bluntly - the last decade was the beginning of a painful crash of the American economy back to earth. When we finally do reestablish equilibrium Americans will be back at work at assembly lines. A massive re-investment in hard science education, which seems extremely unlikely, might cushion the blow but there's only so much room for jobs in intellectual capital.
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Aarononthewebalmost 15 years ago
Andy makes an excellent point: when we outsource the manufacturing and scaling processes to another country, what we lose in addition to jobs are the innovations and experience necessary to maintain a strong defensive econosystem with respect to our economy.<p>However, I disagree with Andy's recommendation that we should tax offshore labor - we should focus on making labor in the United States less expensive. Neuter the Department of Labor, get rid of labor regulations with heniously expensive and obnoxious unintended consequences like the mandatory 8-hour work day in California, eliminate the concept of wrongful termination, and put a muzzle on the EPA.<p>Negative incentives aren't the way to go to encourage job creation. Make the climate more hospitable for large businesses within the U.S. instead.
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gojomoalmost 15 years ago
He had me up until:<p><i>Levy an extra tax on the product of offshored labor. (If the result is a trade war, treat it like other wars -- fight to win.)</i><p>Everybody loses a trade war. And the ensuing impoverishment and desperation can trigger a shooting war.
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mindblinkalmost 15 years ago
An article worth reading for a lot of astute observations. Andy doesn't shy away from making painful points. One of his more striking quotes:<p>"But what kind of a society are we going to have if it consists of highly paid people doing high-value-added work -- and masses of unemployed?"<p>(Actually, my guess is the over-dependency of faith of individual meritocracy will cause us to miss the deeper structural problems that Grove is pointing to.)<p>EDIT: (Anedoctal single point of data with limited context), My friend worked in a Battery startup company in the Silicon Valley. After the initial design phase, the VCs and management decided not scale up into manufacturing, they rather lay most people off and sell the design.
BrandonMalmost 15 years ago
I think the core of the problem is the idea of the 40-hour work week. It is inevitable that more and more jobs will become marginalized and automated. That is a <i>good thing</i>: the goal of technological progress should be increased happiness, of which one component is increased leisure time.<p>As more and more jobs require less and less work performed by humans, the obvious solution is to work less hours. Instead of family providers working a total of 60-90 hours per week, they should be working closer to 40-50 in the somewhat-near future, with that number continuing to drop over time.<p>We obviously have 3 possible paths:<p><pre><code> 1. We return to the single-provider days of old 2. We scale back "normal" hours to be 20-30 hours per week per person. 3. We have high unemployment while many are working 70+ hour weeks. </code></pre> Currently we are going with (3), and it just doesn't make that much sense. Either (1) or (2) would be acceptable to me, but (2) certainly seems more fair. I would love to get to a situation where families get to spend valuable time together and kids are raised by their parents.<p>I think an average of 25 hours per week would hit a nice sweet spot. It would allow companies to have 10-hour work days, either alternating 3/2 10-hour days per week, or 5-hour shifts 5 days a week. Jobs like programming could be designed to have 2 8-hour shifts per week (to perform actual development) along with 3 3-hour shifts (to address meetings, squash bugs, perform customer service, etc.). What is keeping us from this?<p>Instead, we have something like 15-20% of the population overworking themselves while another 15-20% are under- or unemployed. Something's gotta give.
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vessenesalmost 15 years ago
I'm very interested in extrapolating some of these trends out -- America does not have a social system which allows society as a whole to benefit from GDP growth while jobs are destroyed.<p>My social history tells me that no other countries have been successful at creating such a system either.<p>Whether or not we have such a system, we may well be moving to a world in which the US can continue to increase GDP significantly while unemployment increases (efficiency increases, in other words). Successfully creating a Chinese middle class, and selling them our branded stuff only hastens that eventuality.<p>What happens to all these American unemployed people? In an ideal world, they would be artists and poets, inventors and writers, people who add to our cultural capital. The end-game here would (in my dreams) look a lot like Ian Banks' Culture books -- a utopian society which has moved past 'the age of scarcity'. Unfortunately, right now, places like Saudi are the closest we can look to for a society with, frankly, enough money for everyone.<p>In the interim, we are facing a sort of cultural crisis. America's PDI (Power Distance Index) is middling right now; the PDI describes out comfort with and exposure to, high levels of power differences in society, including wealth. Saudi has one of the highest PDIs in the world, meaning that they as a country haven't solved this problem of building an equitable society based on passive income production; in fact, their society is less equitable than many poorer countries. It is hard to imagine that we are aiming at anything else but a Saudi-ish social system if the GDP growth + unemployment growth trend continues.<p>I say this partly because Americans think of someone who is 'unemployed' as lazy, uneducated, etc. In fact, there's a significant undercurrent of that perspective in this thread. The reality is that if we are able to keep improving productivity while birth rates decline, there will eventually be less work. There might be more money, but there will be less work.<p>How do we deal with that? I don't have a good answer, but I still am part of the problem -- I would much rather spend capital on an automated solution for my business than hire someone.
starkfistalmost 15 years ago
It's interesting to hear this from Andy Grove. Intel of the 1990s was constantly being called out as an abusive workplace, exploiting H1B and "home grown" engineers, then laying them off when they got too old and sending their work overseas. Although I agree with most of his essay, I'm not sure I would want to be an employee in whatever scheme he is envisioning.
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todayiammealmost 15 years ago
I have a question; does a company <i>only</i> exist to make profits?*<p>Whenever, someone starts a debate like this, or whenever I see a human being slaving away for a pennies in despicable conditions. I have to ask this question.<p>If and only if companies are entities that exist to make more and more money (not wealth) then you will inevitably run into such problems. The companies in the USA outsource that labor to China, or India only for earning more money, but are they creating wealth? By destroying the long-term sustainability of human civilization on this planet (I live a few kms from a few of these factories in India. You have to see in order to believe what they get away with)? By ultimately harming the very source of their wealth through such measures?<p>I have absolutely no idea about the implications of these concepts to make any categorical statement on them, but I think that David Packard and Bill Hewlett may have gotten it right. (see: <a href="http://www.jimcollins.com/article_topics/articles/the-hp-way.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.jimcollins.com/article_topics/articles/the-hp-way...</a>)<p>*profits are a pre-requisite to its existence. I want to ask if they exist only to do that?
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mericalmost 15 years ago
Andy Grove is worrying about yesterday's jobs. He shouldn't be. No one was worrying about agricultural jobs disappearing, replaced by manufacturing jobs. As technology advanced, fewer farmers were needed to satisfy the basic needs of the consumer. As their basic needs were satisfied new needs for random widgets, plastic toys and entertainment devices appeared, creating opportunities in manufacturing. Today, service jobs has mostly replaced jobs in manufacturing in developed countries; The amount of service &#38; creative work (e.g giving massages, selling products, and of course inventing the next digital device) output an American worker can produce makes it uneconomical to put the worker in a mundane factory making McDonald's toys instead. As technology advances and robotics replaces even factory workers in developing countries, more labor will be freed up to do other things. As had happened in the past, when the most basic consumer needs are resolved there will always be new needs arising; Where yesterday's consumer demanded shelter, food, clothing and a radio, today's consumer demands cars, houses, artwork, internet, hot water supply and monthly professional haircuts. The circle of increasing supply leading to increased demand and thus increased supply again is a virtuous one.
spinchangealmost 15 years ago
I think our elected representatives need to listen a hell of a lot more to guys like this.
tylee78almost 15 years ago
Completely disagree: we need technological paradigm shifts and work our buts off... That was the way to our current standard of living, successfully copied by the East, and it will be the successful path to future growth and industrial/scientific advancement. Not that socialist whiny I need more money and less work attitude a la dying Europe.
hgaalmost 15 years ago
WRT to US startups, how relevant is this anymore?<p>I.e. with the exception of sports (in the biological sense) like Tesla (also a big political factor there), what new Intel like startups are going to get the serious funding they require in today's political and economic environment.<p>As far as I can tell, the period of the big VC funded company like DEC or Intel lasted between the late '50s (there's a certain bit of legislation that pushed the concept over the top) to the early '00s, when SarBox was the last straw that ended the game.<p>Pretty much all of us who are here for the startup game are here for the small capital web/Internet/software type of companies. E.g. I don't see where the next FPGA like think is going to come from (well, in the US).
robryanalmost 15 years ago
The question is though, is it smarter to use some form of tariffs to create more American jobs, lower the minimum wage, or as a third option accept that Asia can do manufacturing cheaper than anyone else and people will be unemployed, but tax the American companies benefiting most from the outsourcing and redistribute the wealth to the unemployed.<p>Maybe at this point in time you have to accept a high unemployment rate, the problem you have to be careful with I guess is you still want to provide incentive to the people currently in minimum wage positions.
wslhalmost 15 years ago
It's sad that after a nice article he ends thinking in taxing, it sounds like a lost case when you need taxes to solve the problem!<p>My naive point of view sees lowering lifecost (cheaper real state, health insurance, etc) so people needs less money to live in a good way and costs can go down. That can't be done in Silicon Valley or NYC but thanks to the technology and good transportation can be done in other areas of the country with good planning.
_debug_almost 15 years ago
Just thinking aloud : please humour me. Since technology is getting robotized, and even Chinese labour is at risk of losing jobs...Organ Farming. If and when the technology matures : You take my cells, convert them to stem cells, and workers help grow a perfect heart / liver / other organ, nudging it along it's growth to perfection. It's like working in an iPhone factory, except, it's really life-saving / preserving.
mattmcknightalmost 15 years ago
He ignores the fundamental problem- the American worker is overpaid. Why would anyone work at the wages of a Chinese laborer when you can make as much money as a Foxconn production line worker ($1.25/hr x 60hr week) in about 10 hours per week at minimum wage here, about 6 hours per week at factory job? We need to find a way to avoid the sticky wage problem, and it will likely involve inflation.
aero142almost 15 years ago
I find this line of thinking very disturbing. Mr. Grove follows others in believing a common fallacy, by ignoring secondary effects, and fails to see how issues in macroeconomics affect each other. Where to start...<p>The American standard of living is higher than China. In order for a worker in the US to continue to enjoy his standard of living and salary, she must contribute to creating something of value equal to what she consumes that is then exchanged at a market price(which determines it's value relative to goods/services created by others). When the US is a leader in technology and innovation, we create things that are very valuable, because rare and productive people make them, and trade them for other, largely commoditized goods, from poorer countries. The reason these commoditized goods are produced in poorer countries is because they can... The ability to produce them is well known so there is more competition, and therefor demand, and the price drops, along with the wages. If you work in a factory cheaply, you do so because replacing your skills in that factory is easy. There are many other people with that set of skills to replace you. The value you produce is cheaper, therefor you are paid less and have less to consume .<p>Now, back to Mr. Grove's statements. The factory jobs left the United States because wages were higher here than there. It's that simple, but where he goes wrong is say that "managers were happy", which is not quite as harsh, but very close to the usual line, which attributes the offshoring to "greed". Not quite. If an American company has to produce it's goods in a factory where people make 2x the salary of the same good in China, the goods will cost more to buy. If the American company, doesn't outsource, and a Chinese company is able to produce the same or similar good(think commodity again), then they will be undercut in the market and go out of business. Not only will management be un-"happy", but the US as a whole is worse off because the profits now go to a Chinese company instead of an American one. The US has now lost not only the manufacturing jobs, but the high value add jobs as well. Mr. Groves proposes the "solution" that we tax imports and use the proceeds promote American production. This merely shifts the money around. Those imported goods were cheaper than their American counterpart. Assuming current wages remain the same, it now cost more dollars to purchase that good because of the tariff and American's have less stuff because it is more expensive relative to their salary. The other option(without the tariff), is that the American factory worker cannot find other work that will pay him more, so he agrees to accept lower wages for performing that same job here and can therefor buy less stuff. I believe that these, as a whole, offset one another and are probably net a wash.<p>As for unemployment, I believe that it is caused by many different things, probably many reasons that are poorly understood, but I'll address a few of them that I think are important here. Unemployment can be caused by temporary mismatches between market demands for goods and supply of those goods. Demand changes, prices change, companies don't require as many employees to produce the goods(this can also be caused by changes in the efficiency of production), and people are fired. There may not be a job in their previous line of work. If there is some other skill set which is in demand, that person can learn a new skill and make whatever salary the market demand supports for that skill. It is also possible that the market will not support the workers previous salary. Labor costs go down, but here is where people usually go wrong. When labor costs drop, it becomes affordable to pay people to do things that you might have automated(for a high cost in machinery or software for example). Or, the market might now support the cost of producing a good which <i>must</i> be done with tedious manual labor. Or, if the American worker is more efficient than his Chinese counterpart, then it might be cheaper to start doing manufacturing in the US again. In other words, as wages drop, the unemployment rate will go down, and less will be outsourced. This is just the tradeoff. The fact that jobs are sent to China means that cheaper goods are available here in the US. Mr. Groves states that the trend is towards an economy where there are high value add jobs and high unemployment. This is true only if current wages hold. If wages drop, then outsourcing makes less sense and unemployment picks up. What we really want is lots of high value add jobs here. This comes through innovation, creativity, a highly skilled and motivated workforce and outsourcing production(if it makes sense) to cheaper markets.
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joubertalmost 15 years ago
Although it is naive, at present, to discount (artificial) national borders (and the patriotic sense people might feel), I look forward to a day when countries no longer exist, similarly to how different regions were amalgamated to form countries and their "national identities".
davidwalmost 15 years ago
I think the 'answer' insomuch as there is one, is not a quick fix, but to educate people in order let them compete for the 'higher level' jobs. 'Making education work better' is a big, long, ugly, hairy and very political topic though.
knownalmost 15 years ago
Due to Globalization, America will be saturated and will be inhabited by people who will live on <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_income" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_income</a>
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SkyMarshalalmost 15 years ago
There's another proposed solution to this problem in the form of tax reform - The Fair Tax proposal.<p>IANA Tax Expert, but I like how they've completely rethought the tax system from the ground up, with the objective of making the US a tax haven for all parts of the manufacturing process - harvesting raw materials, milling into useful materials, manufacturing into products, transport, and sales.<p>In a nutshell, there are 'embedded taxes' at every point in the manufacturing chain. Take a simplified semiconductor for example, made of sand, aluminum, and copper:<p>1. Mine the copper and aluminum, collect the sand (payroll + income + other taxes)<p>2. Purify it all, mill the copper and aluminum (payroll + income + other taxes)<p>3. Deliver to fabrication facilities (tax the transport company)<p>4. Convert sand to silicon wafers, etch the microprocessors into the wafers with the copper and aluminum, package into chips. (more taxes)<p>5. Transport to OEMs (tax the transport company)<p>6. Build computers (more taxes)<p>7. FedEx/UPS to purchaser (more taxes).<p>The consumer ends up paying multiple embedded taxes in the final cost of the product. The Fair Tax folks estimate that these embedded taxes comprise roughly 22% of the cost of the average product manufactured in the US.<p>The Fair Tax would instead remove all the embedded taxes and add them in one lump sum to the final product:<p>1. Mine the copper and aluminum, collect the sand (no tax)<p>2. Purify it all, mill the copper and aluminum (no tax)<p>3. Deliver to fabrication facilities (no tax)<p>4. Convert sand to silicon wafers, etch the microprocessors into the wafers with the copper and aluminum, package into chips. (no tax)<p>5. Transport to OEMs (no tax)<p>6. Build computers (no tax)<p>7. FedEx/UPS to purchaser (no tax).<p>8. Consumer pays 23% tax (calculated inclusively, 30% calculated exclusively) on the final product.<p>The final cost to the US consumer is roughly the same, but the incentives are drastically realigned. It becomes much less expensive to make things in the US, and they are only taxed when sold in the US. Products exported overseas would be tax-free to make and sell (except for taxes in the foreign countries).<p>The concept potentially solves all sorts of problems, from our trade balance to illegal immigrants not paying taxes. Definitely worth reading more about for anyone interested:<p><a href="http://www.fairtax.org/" rel="nofollow">http://www.fairtax.org/</a><p><a href="http://www.amazon.com/FairTax-Answering-Critics-Neal-Boortz/dp/0061540463" rel="nofollow">http://www.amazon.com/FairTax-Answering-Critics-Neal-Boortz/...</a><p><a href="http://www.amazon.com/FairTax-Solution-Financial-Justice-Americans/dp/1595230602/" rel="nofollow">http://www.amazon.com/FairTax-Solution-Financial-Justice-Ame...</a>
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binaryfineryalmost 15 years ago
Hear hear.<p>China manipulates its currency, and so does the US: to keep the rich rich. If we were on the gold standard (not that I'm saying we should be) the dollar would already be worthless and US labor would be competitive. But then Wall Street 20yos wouldn't be able to afford a ferrari.<p>We must either begin enforcing fair trade, and fair employment, or we must face the fact that tens of millions will be unemployed. We cannot support them either. They will not be able to buy the iphones or the xboxes that pay our salaries, and we wont be able to pay our taxes.<p>And do you imagine that they will just starve to death? Or is LA a testbed for containing the lawless future?<p>I do not know what is happening to the USA. It seems as if those who should know better are willfully ignoring the consequences of their actions.
CamperBobalmost 15 years ago
The real elephant in the room, which Grove and practically everybody else knows very well but refuses to talk about, is that nobody starts a company to employ people. People start a company to <i>make stuff</i>. To the extent this can be done with fewer people, this is <i>always</i> a good thing from that company's perspective, with no exceptions I can think of offhand. People suck, and you don't want to deal with them if you can help it. Just as factory farmers would love to be able to grow meat in vats without dealing with the messy parts of animal welfare and husbandry, most managers would love to be able to carry out their missions with fewer people. This is a simple reality of productive life, not a question of social morality or human values.<p>Why does it make sense for companies like Foxconn to take on more and more of our high-tech manufacturing work? Simply because, in contrast to most of the twentieth century, most consumer products are built pretty much the same these days. There is absolutely nothing about a PS3 that requires different components, production lines, or assembly techniques from a desktop PC. There is nothing about an iPhone that justifies building it in a factory that doesn't also make pocket calculators, handheld game consoles, or, hell, competing phones such as Droids. Massive contraction and consolidation of the manufacturing sector, whether here or elsewhere, is both desirable and inevitable. Right now this is true of high-tech items but soon enough, it will be evident enough across the spectrum of durable goods.<p>This wasn't the case when producing a new widget required a lot of custom tool and die work, specialized worker training, or the development of advanced processes unique to that widget. For a drop-dead awesome example of what I'm talking about, look at the processes Tektronix had to develop in the 1960s in order to build CRTs for their oscilloscopes: <a href="http://classictek.org/index.php?option=com_seyret&#38;Itemid=100&#38;task=videodirectlink&#38;id=1" rel="nofollow">http://classictek.org/index.php?option=com_seyret&#38;Itemid...</a> (Flash required)<p>Grove is basically saying we need to start more companies that "scale up" to require factories where people sit doing stuff like what's seen in that video. He's wrong. Today, if I design a better oscilloscope, I'd be out of my mind if I didn't find a way to use the same generic LCD panels that Chinese factories produce by the tens of millions for sale to everyone from Apple to Boeing. And when my hypothetical design is complete, it will use at most one or two custom ASICs (the fewer the better -- I'll use FPGAs if I can), and Foxconn can start building it as soon as they finish their rush order of iPhone 5G Extremes.<p>I have a lot of respect for Grove, but as a captain of industry, he's fighting the last war. His subtextual premise is dead-on, though: we need to figure out how to put 200,000,000 underemployed US workers to good use, or things are going to <i>suck</i>.<p>To me, it's obvious what the future of mass production will look like, but it's not at all clear how to stave off a future where 10% of us are shouldering the entire productivity burden for the rest of the country.
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signa11almost 15 years ago
&#62; Not only did we lose an untold number of jobs, we broke the chain of experience that is so important in technological evolution...<p>wow ! just amazing.