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Self-Driving RVs, Not Cars, Will Bring About the True Paradigm Shift (2016)

55 pointsby splitbrainalmost 8 years ago

14 comments

SwellJoealmost 8 years ago
The cost of an RV makes this out of reach of all but the most wealthy. A &quot;paradigm shift&quot; doesn&#x27;t come from luxury goods, it comes when the cost is within reach of average folks.<p>The photos in the article are of RVs that cost $100k+ (for the little class B) and $175k+ (for the big diesel pusher class A). People who spend $60k+ on a luxury auto may not blink at that, but I doubt it&#x27;s gonna be a mainstream thing. It&#x27;s a high margin industry, but even if we assume it becomes much more widespread and competition increases and margins come down, it&#x27;s still just really expensive to put a whole apartment in a van&#x2F;bus.<p>Also, RVs are a tremendous amount of labor to own even if you don&#x27;t do the driving. They need a lot more maintenance (if you&#x27;re barreling down the highway in your living room at 70MPH, shit&#x27;s gonna break), maintenance is a lot more expensive, and you have to deal with dumping and refilling tanks, among other things. I just don&#x27;t think everyone is going to want that as part of their normal daily commute.<p>My sister&#x27;s family tried renting an RV for trips, rather than flying for a while (because their son liked my motorhome and wanted to try out that kind of travel), but decided not to buy an RV and went back to flying or traveling in their SUV and staying in hotels along the way when they wanted a road trip. As with the boat they bought on a whim, it turned out to be more trouble than it was worth to them.<p>I live in an RV and travel kinda full-time, and have done so for ~6 of the past ~8 years, so I totally understand the appeal. I love having my whole house with me when I travel, sleeping in my own bed every night, cooking in my familiar kitchen, etc., but I can see how it&#x27;s not for everyone. And, again, the cost is prohibitive for a lot of people. If you live in the RV full-time and don&#x27;t have rent or a mortgage payment, it&#x27;s entirely do-able on a modest income...but, in <i>addition</i> to a primary residence, it&#x27;s a pricey endeavor, really only within reach of pretty wealthy people.
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justadeveloper2almost 8 years ago
I&#x27;m skeptical. Class A motorcoaches are already very complex beasts and the people who operate them are in no particular rush to get anywhere from my experiences in Montana and Idaho the last couple of weeks. They&#x27;re mostly retired people and they wander from RV park to RV park without much care. It&#x27;s a nice life in some ways. It would drive me batty to live in campgrounds after awhile, but that&#x27;s me.<p>My elderly parents bought a 38&#x27; Bluebird years ago. They used it some in the first couple of years, but then their health problems began preventing them from going anywhere and now it just sits. The thing is a monster, especially when flat-towing a car behind it. Its huge size has gotten them into all kinds of misadventures because it&#x27;s like driving a semi around, you have to be careful about bridges, grades, road width, parking, where you&#x27;re going to turn around, and on and on.<p>I keep trying to get them to sell it, but they are holding on to a dream that will never be. The punchline is that they could have flown anywhere in the world multiple times and stayed in 4-star hotels for what that stupid RV cost and they would have had a much better time.<p>Anyhow, I just don&#x27;t see a lot of people relying on self-driving RVs, sorry.
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crooked-valmost 8 years ago
I&#x27;m reminded of the Judge Dredd comics, where automated two-lane mega-RVs are an established part of the setting, complete with a subculture of people who have psychological problems if they live somewhere that&#x27;s not moving most of the time.
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erikbalmost 8 years ago
Had to stop at point three. There are just too many assumptions in there that are already shown as incorrect by the world in general.<p>For instance, it&#x27;s not true that with losing the personality of horses all cars behaved the same. Why should that change when the driving part is automated? There are so many different needs people try to fulfill with cars. One might want to arrive quickly and electricity efficient. He may prefer something like these lay-back bycicles. Another person wants some recreational time with his family and he will prefer the RV version. Another person simply doesn&#x27;t have the funds to choose anything but still needs to get from A to B. He may add a request to his Uber app, then a grey little box comes, and on the way to B will put him as much as possible into lines with other box to decrease air resistance, even though that will take more time in the end for the customer.<p>In my experience more automation will end up providing more options not fewer.
newman8ralmost 8 years ago
I think a bigger paradigm shift is going to happen with off-gridding in California with tiny houses and also RVs.<p>There&#x27;s a perfect storm of technology and circumstance. Real estate prices are soaring in the cities, solar power is cheap and getting cheaper, more people are able to work off-site via the internet, there&#x27;s beautiful california land that can be had for thousands of dollars an acre.. the technology that powers water pumps and wells is cheaper and more effective, self driving water&#x2F;food&#x2F;garbage collection&#x2F;road grading&#x2F; deliveries will soon be a reality.
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rawnlqalmost 8 years ago
There&#x27;s an active &quot;van dweller&quot; sub on reddit: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.reddit.com&#x2F;r&#x2F;vandwellers&#x2F;top&#x2F;?sort=top&amp;t=all" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.reddit.com&#x2F;r&#x2F;vandwellers&#x2F;top&#x2F;?sort=top&amp;t=all</a><p>I can&#x27;t wait for a future where you can just set a destination (possibly random), go to sleep, and then wake up to a different view each day: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;i.imgur.com&#x2F;9T7NuhJ.jpg" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;i.imgur.com&#x2F;9T7NuhJ.jpg</a>
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zeniralmost 8 years ago
Clicked it because no idea what RVs are: Recreational Vehicles, meaning vehicles with fancy interior, e.g. kitchen and so on
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Shivetyaalmost 8 years ago
twenty miles per gallon in a RV? Only on class B (van conversions) and even then a limited subset of small ones. I certainly would not want to do a 12k trip in one. Throw in that you only save over hotels if you don&#x27;t stop anywhere because many campgrounds can be nearly half the price of a hotel if not similar depending on time of year.<p>then lets throw in reliability. there is so much more to break and none of it cheap to fix as outside of appliances most of it is unique to the manufacturer.<p>Class A (the big boys) are also a whole different world than B and C which are based on vehicles which have crash test regulation and protection. Class A and many Class C are sub 10 miles per gallon.<p>self driving long distance trucking is where its at. companies can absorb the cost much easier than individuals. as for the comment about liability, yeah I don&#x27;t expect level 5 any time soon and even level 4 as an option.
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js8almost 8 years ago
I don&#x27;t want to be a party pooper but I am kinda worried that self-driving cars are an ecological disaster in the making. We already need to limit GHG emissions, and switching to public transport is a good way to do it. However, with self-driving cars, one of the main incentives for public transport (you don&#x27;t have to drive) is gone.
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dsfyu404edalmost 8 years ago
Even if all the high end stuff switched over tomorrow it would take a very long time for this to trickle down. Look at class A and C motor-homes on CList. The average age is probably 15yr +&#x2F;- some depending on how wealthy the area you&#x27;re looking in is.<p>Currently there is no fielded system to enable trucks pulling doubles to back those doubles easily (cutting brakes would be enough, the hardware is already there).<p>Currently major truck rental fleet operators like Uhaul and Budget do not buy vehicles that make it very hard for people who have no business driving a truck that side to do things like knock over light posts by taking a turn too tight.<p>Even if the technology exists it&#x27;s not at the cost&#x2F;benefit point where it&#x27;s worth adopting for most use cases.
chewylandalmost 8 years ago
I use my campervan as my regular car, have for the last 6 years. Sleeps 6, has a hot shower and a kitchen. Amazing way to cruise around and if you&#x27;re bored, park and have a nap.
agumonkeyalmost 8 years ago
I was thinking about our relation to space and location. With ubiquitous networking and self driving vehicles instead of all going to a spot, the spot might move near us; or others ways fitting; and now you&#x27;re at &quot;work&quot;. That is for information jobs.
PeterStueralmost 8 years ago
Will the RV occupants, excluding the occasional bathroom trip, not be tied to a chair with seat-belts? At least in my country seat-belts are required to be worn by law by all car occupants.
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zelosalmost 8 years ago
No mention of the fact that by the time autonomous cars are a reality then internal combustion engines will likely be illegal as well? MPG figures are irrelevant.<p>Is it realistic to have a large, economically viable, electric RV with reasonable performance and a decent range? That&#x27;s going to need a huge, expensive battery, surely?
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