There is this interesting old documentary with a similar premise called Connections by James Burke: (first episode) <a href="http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xnwpsp_veetle-connections-s01e01-the-trigger-effect_tech" rel="nofollow">http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xnwpsp_veetle-connections-s...</a><p>It uses the 1965 New York power outage as starting point for the discussion on how modern society relies on technology and the consequences of a breakdown. It then goes through the technology tree from the humble plow all the way up to aerospace and how seemingly unrelated things cause us to end up in our current technological state (like how a excess of linnen lead to cheaper paper and widespread literacy).<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connections_(TV_series)" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connections_(TV_series)</a>
If all it takes is $4 billion to secure it and we don't, we kinda deserve it to happen. The same country has and is spending trillions in Iraq and Afghanistan..<p>On the other side, someone mention Pascal's Wager: storing a few basic needs and self defense weapons (were legal), costs practically nothing now but it could save your family's life. It's not a sure way but it's much better to have them then not.<p>Even in cramped apartments you could store stuff for a week or two; in private homes, you're talking months. IIRC, tap water in dark areas with a drop of bleach for liter will last for quite a while. Think 55gallon drums, replaced every so often.
Very good book on this topic based on a scenario-study from the German government. Study was researching what happens to society in case of a large scale energy outage.<p><a href="https://www.amazon.de/dp/3442380294" rel="nofollow">https://www.amazon.de/dp/3442380294</a><p><a href="https://www.amazon.de/dp/1784161888" rel="nofollow">https://www.amazon.de/dp/1784161888</a> (English)<p>Study (German) <a href="http://www.tab-beim-bundestag.de/de/pdf/publikationen/berichte/TAB-Arbeitsbericht-ab141.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.tab-beim-bundestag.de/de/pdf/publikationen/berich...</a><p>Study (English) <a href="http://www.tab-beim-bundestag.de/en/pdf/publications/books/petermann-etal-2011-141.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.tab-beim-bundestag.de/en/pdf/publications/books/p...</a><p>edit: study added
"But the scale of the potential impact is mind-concentrating"<p>I've never heard this expression before. Is it common in English? Sounds to me like it is a descendant of "mind bottling" which again is a corruption of "mind boggling".
Moving through West Africa I admire the resilience of people here. In many places, the power being ON is the surprise, not when it's OFF. I often wonder what would happen to the world if we lost power, or running water, or grocery stores, or really any of our "fancy" infrastructure.<p>In my experience and estimation, a massive percentage of people in Developed countries would wither and die, while undeveloped countries would continue to function almost exactly as they do now.<p>I think there is a lot to be said for knowing how to grow your own food, hunt your own meat, build your own shelter, etc.
One book that examines this scenario is "One Second After" by William Forstchen [0]. It involves a coordinated EMP attack over America and the effects on a small town in North Carolina. In the same vein as The Road but more detailed in how society devolves i.e. how people behave and what is valuable / scarce as the event progresses. It is not pretty but a fascinating read that will make you consider such a scenario and how you can better prepare.<p>[0] <a href="http://a.co/2DWrTJ5" rel="nofollow">http://a.co/2DWrTJ5</a>
The article doesn't even mention the Carrington Event in 1859, which actually hit earth (with limited damage due to lack of widespread electronics). On the spectrum of existential threats, this one seems to be fairly underrated.
There's an old (1943) but good, Sci-Fi book about the disappearance of electricity. It's French (<i>Ravage</i> by René Barjavel) but apparently an English translation exists (<i>Ashes, Ashes</i>) [1].<p>It takes place in 2052, but in a world mostly comparable to ours regarding reliance on electricity. Especially <i>active</i> reliance for some things that do not just become dead or useless, but immediately dangerous.<p>I expect it not to be very well known to US and UK readers, but I think it's worth the read, in France it's usually considered to be among the best and most important Sci-Fi stories.<p>[1] <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashes,_Ashes" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashes,_Ashes</a>
There was an old article in Omni in the late 80s or early 90s that claimed if you did a coordinated attack on only 6 transformer stations across the US, it would take down the whole grid for months. Given that they've never caught the people behind the Metcalfe attack, I do wonder if it's still possible: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalf_sniper_attack" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalf_sniper_attack</a>
I'm surprised to not see any discussion about the cost to effectively harden a home solar system (or business one depending on size) against this kind of surge and damage. I could easily see locations with adequate rooftop solar to be mostly grid independent becoming a valuable part of rebuilding. If nothing else they might provide powered community centers and a way for people to recharge surviving small electronics. I can kind of understand why utilities would not be going ahead in investing in this on their own, because they are basically having to look at interests of their investors and anyone spending hundreds of millions or billions of dollars to protect effectively their part of the grid would probably not last long in a position. In addition, even if they took steps it's entirely possible or even likely that they would be negatively impacted or completely neutralized by incoming damage from other parts of the grid. It's also worth keeping in mind that the power grid in the US is not uniform. I believe the Texas is mostly a separate grid, and I'm pretty sure that there are multiple other places where there's some cross connect but the bulk of power control is through separate regional grids.
I remember seeing an announcement about an action by Obama to prepare for this. Not sure how much substance there is to it, but thought it might be relevant.<p><a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/10/13/executive-order-coordinating-efforts-prepare-nation-space-weather-events" rel="nofollow">https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/1...</a>
It's amusing, and also damning, the idea that American civil society, designed pre-electricity, is somehow incapable of retaining civility without electricity.<p>I say amusing in a very condescending sense. We think of ourselves as modern, advanced, and really seriously quite a bit better, than our ancestors of only 150 years ago. And yet if the prediction of our devolution into uncivilized primal behaviors is true, our assessment as advanced or better is absurd on the face of it.<p>But more interesting, is why is this the case? Have we so much more trust in technology, and so much less trust in civil institutions over time? And in a moment where we need to shift from one to the other, we simply can't do it, and therefore civilization implodes? If so, that's embarrassing. Or it should be.
the chaos scenario lasted for 6 months and they estimated 7m people dying. So is the lesson to have 6 months worth of food and water storage in your home and maybe some propane tanks?
Why are rock climbers needed to get people out of lifts? Ive been stuck in a couple. Opening the doors and climbing out didnt involve ropes, let alone a fire department.
There is a book on the topic called "One Second After". I'm not a fan of it; I think his scenario is excessively dark, but its worth reading. On a similar note, living in Tampa, being prepared is on people's minds right now. No, you can't borrow my chain saw!<p><a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After" rel="nofollow">https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After</a>
See this introduction to the global risk of geomagnetic storms from the Open Philanthropy Project.<p><a href="http://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/geomagnetic-storms-introduction-risk" rel="nofollow">http://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/geomagnetic-storms-intr...</a>