There was an AI winter, then a financial winter. Next one will be an educational and social winter. What is the core of the problem? The answer lies in great false expectations and removing regulations. How to avoid this? I think the solution lies in understanding layers of complexity.<p>Education is the next big topic, if we are not able to understand the complexity involved in education we are going to fail miserable and this could be the first step in the social winter forecast. I could construct and de-construct history and education, but we really need to understand the complexity involved and never accept a single test to measure what is non easily mensurable. There is no clear scale for intelligence, a 1$ calculator can beat any man in computations, so don't think education is easy to measure. Our education is shaped by our expectations, but false expectations and measures can ruin education and open the door to the social fall.