It already burst a couple of times actually. Back with MtGox we had quite the burst and a long period of decline. Or how about the 5 times China forbid Bitcon? Burst after burst.<p>As with the internet: we continued to built it anyway. Adding value to the network in our own way.<p>I have not stopped working with Blockchain technology no matter the price. I went from millionaire to nothing back to multi-millionaire and I have just kept on working. And I will keep on working, bubble or no bubble, there's always going to be cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrencies-innovation and work for developers and a nice people and fun projects.
Just yesterday I saw an ad on the Tube[1] - "Buy & short cryptos" / "Copy expert crypto traders" / "Invest in a crypto portfolio", and made me think of cabbies giving stock tips previous to the 1987 crash.<p>[1] Pic here: <a href="https://twitter.com/gabrielgambetta/status/926787567365902336" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/gabrielgambetta/status/92678756736590233...</a><p>[2] Turns out it was shoeshine boys and 1929 (<a href="http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1996/04/15/211503/index.htm" rel="nofollow">http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive...</a>), but my point stands :)
Disclosure: I sold most of my Bitcoin, and I own some Dash and Sia.<p>> cheaper at some point over the next 12 months is extremely high.<p>I agree with 85% of this post. Except two things:<p>1. I think people dramatically underestimate the likelihood that Bitcoin and all cryptocurrencies get completely banned. ISIL isn't ransoming civilians for Bitcoin yet. They, or someone else will. Politicians and judges aren't getting contract killed via cryptocurrencies yet. They probably will. Governments are going to give people a choice: we're regulating you (signing transaction reversal with a special US TREASURY key, say, or requiring real identities behind addresses) or we're shutting you down. This even has precedent (eGold in the 90s). I think Bitcoin has a higher chance of surviving this than Etherium because it's less complex of a change.<p>2. Just because you can call that there will be a Bitcoin pull back in the next twelve months, doesn't mean that it will be less than the price <i>right now</i>. Bitcoin has gone up a lot in the past 12 months and it can go up a lot more in the next 6. If it crashes from $25k a coin to $5k a coin you aren't really giving good advice for what to do today. Personally I hope it crashes to $1k soon so I can buy back in. Feeling kinda dumb for selling at $6k CAD, but it really could hit $50k before the pullback.
The startup bubble separated the companies with some value (Amazon) from companies with no real value, or not enough to justify their existence.<p>It is challenging for me to separate rampant FOMO speculation from the use of cryptocurrency as a currency (Zimbabwe), but I suspect something similar will happen. The technologies and platforms that enable true digital currency use will end up flourishing for the long term.
This one is one hell of laborious read. Though on the top highlight:<p>> This is the reason why things like technical analysis work much better in crypto than in equities, because these markets are quite obviously more likely to be driven by fear and greed than established markets.<p>It works because as the author puts it " the field is made up almost exclusively of newcomer retail investors that probably have never held a stock in their life."<p>In which case, trading is mostly done by reading some <i>trading</i> books. Fundamental analysis tools like valuation etc. are quite vague and don't really provide a simplistic "if a, then do b" answers. So, people turn to TA which is much easier. If a significant amount of people follow it, then it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.<p>That said, author also seems to use TA as well:<p><a href="https://medium.com/@dennyk/trying-to-make-sense-of-the-elliot-waves-situation-in-bitcoin-at-the-moment-872f619b7302" rel="nofollow">https://medium.com/@dennyk/trying-to-make-sense-of-the-ellio...</a>
From what I have seen, Bitcoin is not a single bubble.<p>It is a endless stream of bubbles, and I see no end in sight.<p>Each bubble bursts and after a while it starts bubbling up again.<p>So, yes, it will burst. Many times. But that doesn't mean it will be the end of it.
Seems to me mostly a (valid) criticism of ICOs, which are kind of like penny-stock. No one would put all their money in a single penny stock, right?<p>It doesn't say much about buying stock in companies who have 'blockchain' in their name. Many of these seem like traditional startups (and many will fail), but can any of them provide fast growth? if not, any long term value?<p>Disclaimer: outsider point of view, I know nothing about this. I stopped using Bitcoin when renewing a domain name would cost me $5 in fees for a $15 transaction.
As an aside, it's interesting that Bitcoin can lose 10% of its value in a single day, and the media/bloggers will use language like "slight decrease" or "faded value" to downplay how serious that amount really is. (Bonus points for "The price is stabilizing" when it dips)<p>If it were possible to short bitcoin, we'd be hearing a very different choir (Edit: I was mistaken, it is possible)
There will be a shake out, no doubt. The more valuable question to ask and answer is "which" cryptos will survive and thrive and "when" will this bubble burst?
Amazon survived (thrived) the dot-com burst. I see no reason to believe the same won’t be said of at least one coin. My money is on bitcoin and etherium.
Interestingly, the deflation that happened recently in ICOs and Alt currencies seems to have boosted Bitcoin price (as the % share of bitcoin jumped)<p>While a bubble burst will affect most of the crypto, I wonder if crypto-currencies will survive the effects differently.
"In the crypto bubble, the field is made up almost exclusively of newcomer retail investors that probably have never held a stock in their life." Any credible data source to back this up. Doesn't sound realistic at all.
Everyone knows that speculation is outpacing the current value of crypto, but unlike the .coms of the 2000s, there is inherent long term utility in the biggest cryptocurrencies. I can't tell what the true value will be, but there is value in these currencies independent of the fact they are trendy investments.
This article fails to address the major question. Why and how are not important. The only thing that matters is WHEN the bubble will burst. Nobody can answer that question. My best estimate is around the 2020 election cycle when regulation of cryptocurrency becomes a major issue
On the flip side gold has been in a 3000 year bubble without signs of bursting. The value of gold is far higher than it's industrial/luxury demand.
can someone please tell medium.com to fix their certificates! Error code: SEC_ERROR_UNKNOWN_ISSUER<p>--firefox--
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Bubbles are everywhere, one you probably never heard of is called humanity, yes our species.<p>One significant fuel of blockchain tech is the distrust in the current financial systems. If central bankers and governments could regain trust there is a probable chance of a bust.
I think many crypto-currencies (with and without ICOs) are rather obvious cash grabs that provide no actual value beyond speculation (e.g. dogecoin); was something comparable going on during the .com bubble? Were there many companies offering no actual value and taking in cash?<p>Edit: I originally conflated cryptos with ICOs, and have since corrected the mistake.