While I'm personally certain BTC will crash eventually, I also dislike technical analysis (which this article is full of).<p>I do realize that technical analysis is just psychology applied on a statistical / price level, but I still fundamentally distrust the methodology for some reason.<p>Still, props to Bloomberg for referencing studies (even if I don't like how those studies are done). Maybe if these "indicators" are right, they'll eventually convince me to start using technical analysis myself...
Maybe someone has access to the study this is based on and can clarify something: "The researchers defined a bubble as a sharp price run-up over a two-year followed by at least a 40% drop over the subsequent two years."<p>OK, so the claim is that Bitcoin is likely to drop 40% sometime within the next two years. My question is, what is the 40% relative to? Is it relative to the peak maximum? That is, assuming we are at the maximum right now, would the 40% be a drop to $6000?<p>I'm asking this carefully because "Bitcoin will drop to $6000" isn't exactly scary to anyone who bought Bitcoin more than a month ago. On the other hand, if the 40% is relative to some presumed stable plateau before the price run-up, i.e., to a Bitcoin price of $1000 or less, that would be enormous.<p>EDIT: Just to clarify, I understand that "at least 40%" can be considerably more than 40%.
Anyone that claims something will crash should put their money where their mouth is and short it.<p>If someone comes out telling me something will crash but they don't show me they're shorting it, that makes it suspect. My next immediate question is: what's your gain in convincing people that something will crash?<p>See: Jamie Dimon talking smack while JP Morgan invests in crypto.
The key is 2 sentences:
- researchers devised a “rule” by observing stock market, likely empirical
- someone was stupid enough to apply it to crypto (a different market)<p>First thing a good university will tell a student is the boundaries of applicability of a law or formula.<p>Newtonian laws work fine except when speeds get close to that of light, for instance (simplified).<p>It’s even more obvious for empirical “laws”.
BTC isn't an asset, so trying to value it based on previous asset prices seems wrong.<p>That said, I all also keep predicting a major fall, but with institutional money looking forward to the CME futures launch, I on the verge of buying in. (Market are excellent at making the largest number of people incorrect, so that probably means we really are on the verge of a crash.)
<i></i>TL;DR - just dump it on the bankers. Once they're into <i>anything</i>, it gets a bubble. Thats how bitcoin jumped so high in 2017. Get out before the last bank buys in. We can reevaluate whats left after they crash it with their money equivalent to the bandwidth in Reddit's hug of death.<i></i><p>When is the last time anybody here <i>used</i> bitcoin as a currency?<p>Bitcoin is those bankers' latest toy. Bankers and their money will hug Bitcoin to death like Redditors to a cute cat gif hosted on a Pentium3 machine.<p>We already see it - how long is the backlog of transactions that bitcoin rolls over to the next 10min resolution? When I checked, it was nearly 2x as long as the miners can resolve in 10 minutes. Or worse, apparently: <a href="https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-confirmation-time" rel="nofollow">https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-confirmation-time</a><p>Fucking traders, clogging <i>our</i> currency too much for us to use it, just so they can buy in on <i>the thing that just goes up</i>. It isnt usable anymore for exchange.<p>They're using the collective wealth of the world (banks, being money safehouses, depositories, etc collectively have magnitudes more money than what circulates in the commercial economy) to try to join in on a craze they usually dont understand. They might just see users paying transaction fees directly, and grow a chub.<p>When you understand that those investment bankers manage commodities and their futures, derivatives, bonds, real estate, and the stock market? <a href="http://money.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-money-markets-one-visualization-2017/" rel="nofollow">http://money.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-money-markets-one-v...</a> you understand that currency is only a tiny portion of the money in the world, and these idiots manage <i>all</i> of the rest of it as investments. And they're getting stupid about joining in on bitcoin. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-05/bitcoin-s-rise-happened-in-shadows-of-finance-now-banks-want-in" rel="nofollow">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-05/bitcoin-s...</a><p><a href="https://cointelegraph.com/tags/jamie-dimon" rel="nofollow">https://cointelegraph.com/tags/jamie-dimon</a><p>Consequently, those bankers are now the reason it "just goes up" this sharply. When we run out of banker patsies to join in on the ostensible money-orgy, look for it to drop. The best/luckiest run at the peak. And then it drops. Panick ensues among the bankers... and the party turns to massacre.<p>Intentional or otherwise, this hype-train turns functionally into the classic pump and dump scheme that youve see spammers do with penny stocks.<p>(Catch up: <a href="https://youtu.be/ytDamqTjPwg" rel="nofollow">https://youtu.be/ytDamqTjPwg</a>
Or google 'spam pump and dump penny stocks' for some quick reads)<p>If it recovers through the "moral"/financial defeat of such a crash by continue operating anyway, only after the rebound can we evaluate the value of bitcoin.<p>In the meantime? Screw those bankers - sell them your bitcoin until we can have our monetary platform back. Or we could try a different one. I hear Etherium is nice, and has less brand recognition among bankers.