The wise words at the end:<p>You can tell where there is too much money and too little money by looking at valuations. When valuations are extended, that means there is too much money. That was seed in 2014, growth in 2015/2016, and ICOs in 2017. The trick is to get into these sectors before the money shows up and get out when it does. And then get back in after it leaves. And not get burned along the way.
Although Wilson titles his piece <i>The Early Stage Slump</i>, he correctly goes on to say that this is <i>a return to normal</i>, that <i>we believe 2012-16 was a bubble in early-stage funding</i>.
Perhaps a sign of uncertainty? There seem to be many risk factors right now:<p>- A government that is close to shut-down<p>- A president that could get indicted or fire the special prosecutor anytime, either of which will cause rioting in the streets<p>- A fed that seems on-target to raise rates this month, which will have many ripples in the economy<p>- A stock market that is standing on it's toes to justify the lofty prices of the day<p>- The possibility of nuclear war with North Korea<p>- An enormous tax cut bill that is still being crafted whose impact is yet to be understood