As someone standing on the outside, the massive boom in value certainly sounds like a bubble to me. I'm hearing all the same stories: the newly rich buying absurd cars, "my friend made x much". Eventually all the tourists who want on will get on, then they'll start gettin back off.
The speculation about cryptocurrency valuations is a great example of how bad people are at dealing with radical novelties. People spout meaningless analogies, be they about decades old market crashes or centuries old speculative frenzies like tulip bulbs, as if they apply here when clearly they cannot.
Bitcoin chart is a fractal. Every single time in the history of it there is a post about it being a bubble. $100, $1000, $3K, $4K, $10K, I keep seeing this for yyyyears.
Allow me to save you sometime, the author basically sums it up with this:<p><pre><code> Conclusion: It’s obviously a simplified model and you can play around with the numbers and get marginally different results, but the key insight is that even if you’re a fervent crypto believer, if you think there is a nonzero chance a crash might happen then in order to maximize your EV (i.e. make the most money) you should keep some % of your money on the sidelines to invest once the bubble pops and lower your average buy-in cost. The higher the probability you assign to a crash, the more money you should keep on the sidelines and vice versa</code></pre>