The article asserts there is a "drought" because Earthquakes on certain faults haven't occurred in the last N years. But the article fails to even suggest a frequency of expected occurrence which would lead to such a conclusion. This is just clickbait exploiting fear for money.<p>For facts, the USGS posts the best scientific evaluation of fault frequency. Here's the one for the Bay Area [1]. Summary is that in the next 30 years, there is a 98% chance of >= 6.0 (meh), 72% chance of >= 6.7 (ouch), 51% chance of >= 7.1 (Loma Prieta class), and 20% chance of >= 7.5 (Great SF Earthquake class). The fact sheet goes into detail on the likelihood of earthquakes on each fault.<p>[1] PDF <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf</a>
I'm so disappointed that California doesn't have something like Mexico's Seismic Alert System, which has historically given 60 seconds of warning before an earthquake.[1] Something like that could save so many lives.<p><i>"CIRES transmits earthquake early warning alerts through a network of VHF stations similar to the NOAA Weather Radio service in the United States, including use of Specific Area Message Encoding, but with faster lead times in order to issue more timely warnings within two seconds or less. CIRES offers alert systems for buildings and personal use, which also come pre-installed with the official warning sound used for earthquake alerts in Mexico. On its network of transmitters, CIRES issues required weekly tests every three hours to ensure receivers are connected to its network, as well as earthquake warnings when necessary. More than 90,000 users in Mexico City, including almost all public schools, have receivers. The Mexico City Metro additionally receives SASMEX alerts, although not for public dissemination but instead to stop trains or delay departures as necessary."</i><p>[1] - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SASMEX" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SASMEX</a>
I hope everyone in California who reads HN is prepared with emergency supplies. At the very least stock up on emergency drinking water so that you won't have to go out of your way to get it if things get particularly bad. You'll have plenty of other things to worry about, so you may as well mitigate what's arguably one of the easiest and cheapest issues to prepare for now.
I was talking to someone the other day who is working on predicting earthquakes by combining massive data sets with deep learning. They have a promising technique that looks like it can predict 24-72 hours in advance.<p>Having lived through Northridge in '94, I really hope he succeeds before it happens.
As disasters go earthquakes are intermittent enough that it is easy to forget about them. I carry an earthquake kit in my car with enough to get out of my car and hike (and possibly camp a bit) back to my house from most anywhere I might be in the 99th percentile.<p>I did have the unpleasant experience of replacing my water cache and finding that one of the barrels had been leaking into one of the dry goods boxes. That was a gooey icky mess. And it reminded me to be more vigilant about rotating supplies.<p>Still, when it hits, I expect a lot of chaos.
Very ignorant question, but could it be possible to artificially start an earthquake in order to prevent "power build-up" ? Like many small man-made earthquakes spread over a decade instead of a big natural one.<p>It's how it's done with avalanches: you start them before they get too big and dangerous.
For homeowners and building operators, there is a safety valve you can install that will shut off the gas line when it detects earthquake-like shaking. This reduces the risk of a fire or explosion in the aftermath of an earthquake.<p>Also, remember that emergency kits include perishable items. Keep an eye on those, and remember to rotate your supplies.
I've lived in the Bay Area all my life, was a baby when Loma Prieta hit. I had scarcely felt an earthquake in my life except for a few occasions where I had to ask people nearby 'was that just an earthquake?'.<p>A month or two ago there was an earthquake epicentered a 5 minute walk from my house. It shook my house and wobbled my walls and I thought for sure it was finally the big one. I find out the next day that it was only around a 4.0. It's hard to imagine what the epicenter of a 7.0 (>30k times as powerful) would feel like.
Reminds me of "WHAT IS THE CHANCE OF AN EARTHQUAKE?" by David Freedman. <a href="https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~stark/Preprints/611.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~stark/Preprints/611.pdf</a>. A fun read if you're into stats.
I've always wondered if it would be possible for a warning system to provide 5-10 seconds of warning for an earthquake. For a large earthquake and p-wave speeds of 10 km/s, if acted upon immediately couldn't you push out an alert with a lead time of a couple dozen seconds?
Maybe it's from living in CA all my life, but having ridden many out many quakes, my concern for 'The Big One' is a little less than my concern is for an astroid hit... which isn't much.
Is due. Just because something hasn't happened for some time doesn't by itself mean it's immminent. How are the distributions of earthquake events and magnitudes typically modeled?
For the geologists in the house:<p>I live in a new construction home with a post-tensioned slab foundation about 4 miles from the Hayward fault -- in a vertical line straight down.<p>How worried should I be?