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Economists See Merit in Trump’s Trade Case Against China

67 pointsby meri_dianabout 7 years ago

7 comments

ethbroabout 7 years ago
Fwiw, the IP trade case seems absolutely valid.<p>Either China can abide by international laws and actually enforce IP prosecution on <i>strategic domestic</i> companies, or they don&#x27;t deserve to play at the free trade table.<p>The &quot;Well, we know the Chinese government is unfairly tilting the domestic economic market in favor of local companies, but if we give them a seat at the table then eventually they&#x27;ll change&quot; is never going to be realized when they&#x27;re treated with kid gloves by everyone who wants access to their market.<p>And now that China has a number of internationally competive industries, it seems like as good of a time as any to press harder.<p>For all the bullshit that made it&#x27;s way into the TPP, it was strategically a good idea. Multilateral tariffs are the only real pressure that an economy as big as China&#x27;s will feel.
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asfasgasgabout 7 years ago
At least, you can cherry-pick two who think so (that is how many economists are quoted in the article). On the other hand, you can probably find two economists who will say almost anything. I&#x27;m more interested in surveys like the ones the IGM Forum conducts. Here is what they think about the aluminum and steel tariffs:<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.igmchicago.org&#x2F;surveys&#x2F;steel-and-aluminum-tariffs" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.igmchicago.org&#x2F;surveys&#x2F;steel-and-aluminum-tariffs</a><p>I don&#x27;t really expect the China tariffs to get much better results, but I guess we will see!
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fwdpropagandaabout 7 years ago
&quot;Fair&quot; is a bullshit notion when it comes to trade. What Americans say is that China can produce &lt;insert commodity&gt; cheaper than the USA only because &quot;it&#x27;s subsidized&quot;, and that&#x27;s unfair.<p>What exactly does it mean to say that is &quot;unfair&quot;? The USA for example subsidizes their soybean exports, is that &quot;unfair&quot; to the rest of the world?<p>Their society spotted a strategic opportunity in collectively working together to lower the prices of some exports. Now, it might make sense for the USA to apply strategic tariffs. But calling their decision &quot;unfair&quot; is just filler word nonsense, as we&#x27;re all playing by the same rules.
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pasbesoinabout 7 years ago
It would have been better 20+ years ago, before wholesale IP flow there and some other places.<p>There was theft. There was also taking advantage of that theft by &quot;Western&quot;, &quot;IP friendly&quot; businesses. Hardly the only, but one of the reasons that &quot;outsourcing&quot; had such &quot;cost savings&quot;. Because the suppliers outsourced to weren&#x27;t actually paying for the tools and technology they were using (versus e.g. a domestic U.S. producer).<p>It would have been better 20+ years ago, before wholesale IP flow there and some other places.<p>There was theft. There was also taking advantage of that theft by &quot;Western&quot;, &quot;IP friendly&quot; businesses. Hardly the only, but one of the reasons that &quot;outsourcing&quot; had such &quot;cost savings&quot;. Because the suppliers outsourced to weren&#x27;t actually paying for the tools and technology they were using (versus e.g. a domestic U.S. producer).<p>P.S. I&#x27;m all for the &quot;third world&quot; -- or &quot;second&quot;, or whatever -- advancing. I don&#x27;t think nor respect the idea that the &quot;first world&quot; had to hollow itself out to accomplish this. Nor so distort other societies and governments into such abusive forms, e.g. by using our technology to empower an abusive but cooperative faction over the others.<p>But then I&#x27;ve been an optimist. The last some years of U.S. politics have really put that to the test for me, personally.
sidibeabout 7 years ago
People might be more understanding if he wasn&#x27;t at the same time threatening tariffs on everyone else too.
burfogabout 7 years ago
Suppose that we decided that we shouldn&#x27;t have abnormal tariffs. We decide to do what is typical for large and&#x2F;or advanced economies.<p>We&#x27;d have to raise tariffs.
graycatabout 7 years ago
IMHO, Trump&#x27;s idea on tariffs and China is not really about trade, free trade, or economics. Instead, Trump&#x27;s ideas go back to some simpler stuff -- predatory marketing to achieve and then exploit a monopoly. So, run losses, drive competitors out of business, then take all the market, have a monopoly, and raise prices. Also for China, much of the goal is international power.<p>China is like the guy who promised to catch the wild pig. So each day he took a walk in the woods and left a trail of corn. Soon the pig found the corn and started following the corn trail. Slowly the corn trail led to a corral with an open gate. So, sure, as soon as the pig was inside the corral, the guy closed the gate. Done. One pig captured.<p>China doesn&#x27;t want trade or free trade; instead, China wants to use &quot;the old take over the world ploy&quot;. So, China will try to reduce everyone else to colonies supplying goods, especially from agriculture, at low prices while they import products from China at high prices. That idea used to be called <i>mercantilism</i>, e.g., what England did to India.<p>The Chinese Communist party is willing to have their citizens work however long at whatever work to support their &quot;old take over the world ploy&quot;.<p>For the US, the situation is easy: Slap on tariffs.<p>The US tariffs will also be good for the Chinese people -- have the Communist party keep the Chinese people busy making consumer products, concentrating on education, a nicer country, etc.<p>China is a big country with lots of land area near by -- Mongolia, Russia, India, SE Asia, Australia, etc., and doesn&#x27;t much need to import anything and needs next to nothing from the US.<p>Similarly the US needs next to nothing from China.<p>The US tariffs will also be good for the US, e.g., put many millions of US citizens back to work. In many ways, the US standard of living was much higher in 1950 when foreign trade was not very important for the US.<p>Besides, just why should the work output of US workers be shipped out of the US? Really, only if that output can be swapped for something more valuable to the US, e.g., products we need and don&#x27;t have, e.g., tin, natural rubber, teak, but there isn&#x27;t a lot of such products the US really needs. Okay, we could sell the output for gold, sell the gold to the US government, and let the gold accumulate in Fort Knox. To what end? Fort Knox is awash in gold.<p>I know; I know; I know: The big plan was that poorly paid US workers would give their jobs to China, India, Pakistan, etc. and, then, get much better jobs at Microsoft selling software at high prices to China, India, Pakistan, etc. Well, mostly it didn&#x27;t work: Instead the textile workers in the Carolinas are still out of work; same for the steel workers in the Rust Belt, etc.<p>Why? Some US foreign policy thinkers thought that such trade would make a more peaceful world. The people doing the importing liked making the money. Pakistan liked getting US help setting up a textile industry and selling back to the US to get cash to buy, say, oil or stuff to make their atomic bombs. Bummer.<p>Trump is correct: China has devastated large areas of the US fly-over states. The whole show, from Nixon&#x27;s trip to China to China in the WTO to the present has been a disaster in nearly every sense for the US.
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