I used to be one of the people who poked fun at Musk and suggested people short Tesla stock (as the valuation is crazy compared to the production and penetration numbers).<p>But I am no longer that person. I read his biography (Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future) and this is a guy who genuinely wants to change things on a macro scale: opening up space, changing transportation. He is also a genuine risk taker, who will bet his own money and risk everything for something he believes in. I now root for Musk and his companies to succeed. I wouldn't take short positions on Tesla now.<p>Plus the deletion of the SpaceX and Tesla facebook pages, when told over Twitter they existed was pretty funny.
The "leaks" on email this last week have changed the narrative a lot. The leak last week (probably not planned) of "prove the haters wrong" resulted in a sell off, while the leak over the weekend cushioned the final numbers.<p>That said, TSLA, just like SpaceX plays really close to the edge with equity and risk in pursuit of a vision. What most Tesla shorts fail to recognize is that Tesla has already gotten to the point that if something really really bad where to happen, any number of well capitalized tech firms would scoop them up in a instant (looking at Apple in particular). The cars are really a minimal amount of hardware, with software wrapped around them. They have loyalty like the iPhone had loyalty and Alexa has loyalty.<p>The big bottleneck to this point has been battery assembly lines at the Gigafactory. They just installed a new line for the battery packing line that they yanked back from Panasonic. Now they need to prove they can start scaling more linearly.<p>The press reaction to all of this is a good example of the media not knowing what they are talking about. The press has issued breathless reports about there being too much skilled labor and parts by hand, then too much robotic automation. They point at the low uptake of reservation holders (30%) without noting that the reservations are holding constant, and that this is mostly a effect of only the most premium of the premium going on sale right now.<p>Tesla's barb on the Model T is interesting as well. "This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. "<p>What Tesla is trying to do is hard. There is a reason no one has been successful in doing it in more then 50+ years. Watching the people who are opposed to what Tesla is doing is just as interesting.
CNN this morning: "Tesla will soon report whether it met its target to make 2,500 Model 3s a week. It is on pace to make about half that number, according to Bloomberg." [1]<p>From the statement: "In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles."<p>A pretty big improvement, still some hard work to do, but they really are ramping up.<p>I'm relieved at the announcement they won't need another debt/equity raise this year. Let's see where we are in 3 months.<p>[1] <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/02/news/companies/tesla-stock-april/index.html" rel="nofollow">http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/02/news/companies/tesla-stock-a...</a>
> <i>The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T.</i><p>Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive.<p>They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measuring by <i>those</i> goals, they measure themselves by their weakest performance, and suddenly their performance becomes historic.
They built 9766 Model 3 in Q1 and were able to surge out 2000 in the last 7 days, and claim a doubling in their Model 3 production rate over Q1.<p>Something doesn't really add up there. Regardless of their spin their Q1 must have been hellish on the guys and gals on the floor and in production support.<p>I hope they can do a sustainable ramp soon so my friends can get their Model 3s.<p>I would REALLY love to see what their internal messaging on this is.
I was next to Model X at a stoplight last night.<p>They look nice from a distance, but when you sit up close you can see where every panel and piece of trim just doesn't line up quite right. Sitting in my cheap little Mazda3, I've never noticed any problem with simple fit-and-finish details like that.<p>I truly hope the Model 3s catch up, but I really think those owners will be in for a world of headaches after delivery.
2,020 is under Elon's 2,500 prediction, but well above the 1,000-1,500 expectations of those shorting the stock (unless the shorts' articles were deliberately misleading, of course).<p>Also, according to the release, those are customer-delivered numbers. Overall, a good trajectory and a sign of long-term health.
Worth posting Bloomberg's Tesla Model 3 Tracker, which contains a model attempting to independently estimate production, as well as background info about Tesla's past projections: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/" rel="nofollow">https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/</a>
I clicked on this article expecting a graph of an exponential curve, and they utterly failed to deliver. Who <i>cares</i> how many cars they’re making, if they can’t make a decent exponential curve? That is the #1 priority product of any California hype house! How are we supposed to believe they’ll amount to anything if they can’t show us a trend line that would consume all matter on the planet by 2045?
Despite the disappointment of missing the goal of 2500 cars, this is good news. Tesla came reasonably close to their goal and certainly won't stop at that number. To put the number into scale, they made as many Model 3 in the last week as Model S and X combined. That means, Tesla is on a good track to produce at least twice as many cars in 2018 as they did in 2017, which already was a record year.
GM/Toyota/NUUMI would produce four times vehicles in the same amount of time in that plant. (about 120 to 130k/quarter, depending on the nuumi production numbers you believe)
Tesla asked for volunteers to staff the assembly lines last week. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-29/tesla-urges-workers-to-prove-haters-wrong-ramp-up-production" rel="nofollow">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-29/tesla-urg...</a><p>I personally am bearish on this. If they worked so hard, but only made it to 2000 / week (their goal was 5000/week by December2017. They lowered it to 2500 this past week), then its all just marketing spin to make 2000/week look better, which is still missing their original targets.<p>Volunteer staff while cutting Model S / Model X production (and moving that staff over to the Model 3 lines) is not sustainable. They could do it for one week to pad out the numbers, but they need real growth to remain solvent over the next year.<p>Ignoring the 2000/week spurt last week, the other 7000 Model 3 cars were made over the course of 11 weeks. That's roughly 650ish Model3 cars made per week, on the average (when looking at it across the quarter). This is actually less than the 793/week Model 3 they did at the end of Q4.<p>Bloomberg estimates that Tesla's overall production has grown to 1000/week or maybe a little bit above that, which might be closer to the "sustainable" size (ie: not counting the volunteer staff + spurt last week).<p>I'd be surprised if Tesla makes 30,000 Model 3s next quarter (which is still grossly below their target of 5000/week by Dec2017).<p>Tesla NEEDS 5000/week. 2000/week is still very low and unsustainable for this company.<p><a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2018-04-03/tesla-says-produced-2-020-model-3-sedans-last-week" rel="nofollow">https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2018-04-03/...</a><p>> "Tesla continues to target a production rate of approximately 5,000 units per week in about three months, laying the groundwork for Q3 to have the long-sought ideal combination of high volume, good gross margin and strong positive operating cash flow," it said.<p>> "As a result, Tesla does not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines."
Well, I think many people don't want to understand that <i>ambitious</i> targets are most likely to be missed. So missing the target is actually what is going to happen and the real question is by how much.<p>So some might ask, why setting a goal that is unlikely to be reached and not simply set a realistic target?<p>Changing the automotive world isn't realistic. So if you would go with a realistic target you could have shutdown Tesla years ago. Nevertheless, there is an actual risk involved in setting the targets too high as burning people and investors can cause real problems.<p>Yet, I think it is best to judge Tesla by their actual performance and not so much by the fact that they missed their ambitious targets.
There's a number of questions on this thread about Telsa's production uptick being about "burning the late night oil" or automation. Does anyone have any reliable insight into this question?<p>And, regarding their automation, a few honest questions:<p>1. How much automation are we talking about, compared to the status quo?<p>2. How much of the automation is reusable across other models? Are they building up a repeatable model to increase scale at a lower cost?
> <i>The quality of Model 3 coming out of production is at the highest level we have seen across all our products.</i><p>I am dumbfounded by this statement, weren't tons of images and videos of huge gaps between sections on Model 3s?<p>He does not even acknowledge it happened, so I cannot assume that it is meant to say that the issues were fixed.<p>Am I missing something? Otherwise that's incredibly misleading.
The joke is an indication their position is stronger than perceived. That's his warped sense of humor, and something he's probably been longing to do (once the time was right). I predict this press will be the first of many positive releases from Tesla. While they flew very close to the sun, the wings have held, and they will be soaring from here.
<i>"Tesla Goes Bankrupt<p>Palo Alto, California, April 1, 2018 --<p>Despite intense efforts to raise money, including a last-ditch mass sale of Easter Eggs, we are sad to report that Tesla has gone completely and totally bankrupt. So bankrupt, you can't believe it."</i><p>- Elon Musk<p><a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/980566101124722688" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/980566101124722688</a>