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Can a new mayor fix San Francisco’s housing and homelessness problems?

89 pointsby hvoalmost 7 years ago

20 comments

foskalmost 7 years ago
The Economist is ignoring the fact that the city administration in San Francisco is now extremely busy, and I mean 24&#x2F;7 busy, cracking down on electric scooters that - unlike needles, human excrements, tents and substance abuse - are a real problem that needs a resolution ASAP.<p>As soon as this insurmountable plague has been eradicated, the city administration will finally have time to talk again about the things that matter, like: Should Vaillancourt Fountain be finally removed or not? Or after introducing the soda tax, is it finally time for a burrito tax? Of course really anything that would prevent them from fixing the real problems that are affecting SF.<p>SF needs its own Rudy Giuliani and its own Broken Windows policy[1].<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Broken_windows_theory" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Broken_windows_theory</a>
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habosaalmost 7 years ago
Here&#x27;s something that has been making me scratch my head lately.<p>San Francisco has had a Democratic mayor from 1964-now. It&#x27;s widely regarded as the farthest left city in the country besides maybe Berkeley across the bay. Most Democrats&#x2F;leftists want to reduce wealth inequality and are proponents of more taxation, welfare, etc.<p>Yet, San Francisco is one of the most economically unequal cities in this country [0]. So what&#x27;s up? Why have the city&#x27;s Democrats been so unable to help the poor if that&#x27;s really something they believe in?<p>Democrats always say that if you elect the Republicans then the city will belong to the rich and powerful. But that&#x27;s what we have now...<p>Note: I am a Democrat, I already voted for SF mayor this cycle and I voted for a Democratic candidate.<p>0: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.mercurynews.com&#x2F;2018&#x2F;02&#x2F;15&#x2F;income-inequality-in-the-bay-area-is-among-nations-highest&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.mercurynews.com&#x2F;2018&#x2F;02&#x2F;15&#x2F;income-inequality-in-...</a>
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raldialmost 7 years ago
Apartments -- of any height! -- are illegal to build in 78.6% of SF: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;sfzoning.deapthoughts.com&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;sfzoning.deapthoughts.com&#x2F;</a><p>Fix that, and you&#x27;ll fix the city&#x27;s housing and homelessness problems. It wouldn&#x27;t take ugly skyscrapers, just 4-to-6 story apartment buildings like they have all over the most beautiful cities in Europe.
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seibeljalmost 7 years ago
&gt; <i>The city’s zoning laws are among the most restrictive in the country. They limit the height and density of new buildings and give local residents, often property owners, the ability to severely delay new development. Most of the city’s land area, particularly the posh western bits, is zoned for single-family homes, which now comprise one-third of its housing stock. Almost all the city’s land faces height limits of 40 feet, or about three storeys. The result is a city where rents are sky-high but buildings are not.</i><p>That is the central problem, and more government regulation on top of an already insane amount of red tape and restrictions will not fix it. You must allow developers to develop
crooked-valmost 7 years ago
No. Fixing the housing problem will take overriding the NIMBYs that are limiting housing density, which the mayor doesn&#x27;t have the power to do.
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joshealmost 7 years ago
I hadn&#x27;t decided who to vote for, this helps. There is no more urgent problem in the bay area than housing and there is no way to fix it other than by building more housing.<p>London Breed for mayor it is.
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mchannonalmost 7 years ago
I suspect, as in Vancouver, a lot of foreign-originated dirty money is getting parked in SF real estate, where the structures sit vacant.<p>One of Vancouver&#x27;s innovative approaches was a special tax assessment on vacant structures.<p>I honestly wonder what percentage of SF, including its commercial office space, is simply a vehicle for money laundering. Switzerland and the Cayman Islands have nothing on Uncle Sam when it comes to real estate opacity.
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skookumchuckalmost 7 years ago
Here in Seattle we have the $12 million per mile bike lanes, and the mayor&#x27;s latest proposal, beds for the homeless at $12,600 per bed. The city government spending is so cost-ineffective it&#x27;s clear they&#x27;ll never solve any problems.
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rsyncalmost 7 years ago
One thing I haven&#x27;t heard discussed, and would like to, is the notion that there might be (effectively) <i>an unlimited number of people willing to be homeless in California</i>.<p>Which is to say, you might be able to &quot;solve&quot; homeless problems in Denver or Salt Lake or St. Paul - and there have been some very interesting and encouraging policy moves there, especially in Salt Lake City. This might be because there are <i>only so many people willing to be homeless in St. Paul</i>. Or Green Bay or Denver - because of the cold and snow.<p>What does it mean if the stream of homeless into SF&#x2F;LA&#x2F;SD is, effectively, unlimited ? How would that change our proposed solutions ?
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littlesheephtptalmost 7 years ago
Why can&#x27;t tech companies out-muscle NIMBY&#x27;s and get 30-50 story residential buildings approved? After spending time in different parts of China, it seems asinine that most buildings here don&#x27;t exceed ~4 stories.
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crsvalmost 7 years ago
Jason Calacanis makes comments about this from time to time on his podcast. There&#x27;s some pretty nontrivial problems with the whole NIMBY stuff, and it seems like it will likely have to involve some seriously legislation that I think might be more at the governor &#x2F; state senate level. The homelessness problem is something that no one has solved really well and is perhaps even more complicated than the housing crisis itself (though they&#x27;re part of the same challenge in many ways).<p>This is one of those big daunting problems that feels increasingly make or break for SF as a whole, and given it the size and complexity of the problem, will likely involve a very disruptive and painful change to address.<p>If I&#x27;m taking a bet here, I think it&#x27;s more likely that they don&#x27;t handle the problem effectively and the workforce and economy distribute out of the system, followed by a sudden and severe real-estate market correction, and then the growth will settle and flatten for a while
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abalonealmost 7 years ago
This article is a bit unfair to Kim and Leno. It says they are &quot;cooler&quot; on housing than Breed, but that&#x27;s not really accurate. They all want more housing. The policy difference is over how hard to negotiate with developers for working class housing.<p>The only quote from Kim is this: &quot;If I’m going to give you ten additional storeys, I’m going to want you to increase your middle-income housing programme.&quot;<p>You can debate whether a purely free market approach will address this effectively, but it&#x27;s inaccurate to characterize fighting hardest for low- and middle-income housing <i>now</i> as a &quot;cooler approach&quot;. Cities need housing for service industry workers -- especially as more professionals move in.
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dmodealmost 7 years ago
TBF, SF has build a fair number of housing compared to the Bay Area. It is cities like San Mateo, Palo Alto, and Mountain View that are primarily to blame for the housing crisis.
theNJRalmost 7 years ago
I&#x27;m re-reading Gladwells What the Dog saw, and just came to Million Dollar Murray: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.newyorker.com&#x2F;magazine&#x2F;2006&#x2F;02&#x2F;13&#x2F;million-dollar-murray" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.newyorker.com&#x2F;magazine&#x2F;2006&#x2F;02&#x2F;13&#x2F;million-dollar...</a><p>The conclusions to this certainly made sense to me. Were they debunked or forgotten?
dekhnalmost 7 years ago
Only political will will fix its problems. And I don&#x27;t think the proposed leaders have that.
carapacealmost 7 years ago
Two points I want to mention: first, this article is pretty informative (it&#x27;s been on HN before I&#x27;m pretty sure) about rents, construction, etc. in SF: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;experimental-geography.blogspot.com&#x2F;2016&#x2F;05&#x2F;employment-construction-and-cost-of-san.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;experimental-geography.blogspot.com&#x2F;2016&#x2F;05&#x2F;employme...</a><p>&gt; Building enough housing to roll back prices to the &quot;good old days&quot; is probably not realistic, because the necessary construction rates were never achieved even when planning and zoning were considerably less restrictive than they are now. Building enough to compensate for the growing economy is a somewhat more realistic goal and would keep things from getting worse.<p>&gt; In the long run, San Francisco&#x27;s CPI-adjusted average income is growing by 1.72% per year, and the number of employed people is growing by 0.326% per year, which together (if you believe the first model) will raise CPI-adjusted housing costs by 3.8% per year. Therefore, if price stability is the goal, the city and its citizens should try to increase the housing supply by an average of 1.5% per year (which is about 3.75 times the general rate since 1975, and with the current inventory would mean 5700 units per year). If visual stability is the goal instead, prices will probably continue to rise uncontrollably.<p>- - - - -<p>Second, SF city politics, always a bit freaky in the best of times, has gotten <i>really</i> weird since Mayor Lee passed away. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2018&#x2F;01&#x2F;24&#x2F;us&#x2F;san-francisco-mayor-breed-farrell.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2018&#x2F;01&#x2F;24&#x2F;us&#x2F;san-francisco-mayor-br...</a><p>- - - - -<p>Put these two items together and the short answer to the question in the title is, &quot;No.&quot;<p>As mentioned in the article, we already spend one quarter of a <i>billion</i> dollars on homelessness in SF. That&#x27;s not a typo: 0.25 * 10 to the <i>ninth</i> power.<p>&gt; San Francisco’s programmes, which cost $250m per year, are praised by many campaigners against homelessness. Still, the city could spend its money more efficiently.<p>There&#x27;s plenty of money, even after:<p>&gt; About two-thirds of its homelessness budget goes on rent subsidies and “permanent supportive housing”.<p>So ~$170m for housing (never mind that folks aren&#x27;t homeless if they live in a house) still leaves ~$80m to deal with a few thousand people.<p>&gt; Early intervention is often much cheaper.<p>Yes. Something like 60% of EMS response downtown is related to issues with a small handful of people. The ambulance drivers know them by name.<p>- - - - -<p>Last but not least, a random thought in re:<p>&gt; Jeff Kositsky, the city’s director of homelessness services, cites the example of a driver for Lyft, a ride-hailing service, who nearly fell into homelessness after his car was damaged. The city kept him off the streets by simply paying off the cost of his car.<p>What? As an S.F. resident this doesn&#x27;t seem right. I appreciate that this guy isn&#x27;t homeless, that&#x27;s great, I&#x27;m not disturbed by that. The thing that I find unsettling is why didn&#x27;t his car insurance pay for it? Or Lyft for that matter?<p>But then I have to remind myself that this is the city that passed a law to just give money to certain businesses if they were considered &quot;Legacy&quot; enough. I&#x27;m left-leaning but that blew me away:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.sfheritage.org&#x2F;legacy&#x2F;legacy-business-registry-preservation-fund&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.sfheritage.org&#x2F;legacy&#x2F;legacy-business-registry-p...</a><p>&gt; The registry is open to businesses and nonprofits that are 30 years or older, have been nominated by a member of the Board of Supervisors or Mayor, and in a hearing before the Small Business Commission, prove that they have made a significant impact on the history or culture of their neighborhood. Only 300 business can be nominated annually and all applicants must agree to maintain the historic name and craft of their businesses.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;sfosb.org&#x2F;legacy-business" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;sfosb.org&#x2F;legacy-business</a><p>&gt; Through the Legacy Business Historic Preservation Fund, Legacy Businesses on the registry may receive Business Assistance Grants of $500 per full-time employee per year, while landlords who extend the leases of such businesses for at least 10 years may receive Rent Stabilization Grants of $4.50 per square foot of space leased per year. The business grants will be capped at $50,000 annually; the landlord grants will be capped at $22,500 a year. For fiscal years 2017-18 and 2018-19, a Consumer Price Index (CPI) adjustment of 3.1% will be added to the grants. Additional CPI adjustments will be made every two years.<p>Yes, Virgina, we collect taxpayer money and then give some of it to businesses we like just because we like them.
wfbarksalmost 7 years ago
&quot;No&quot;
rhizomealmost 7 years ago
tl;dr: Betteridge&#x27;s Law of Headlines<p>One of the tragic tropes of San Francisco is that people often and loudly think homelessness just needs to be &quot;fixed,&quot; and that it just takes getting the right person into office to do so. But there ain&#x27;t no silver bullet and these issues are complicated.<p>It seems like SF has been moving in good directions as far as dialing down the &quot;arrest the homeless&quot; strategy propounded by carpetbaggers offended that the sidewalks don&#x27;t remind them of Topeka, the evolution of Navigation Centers, and other homeless-directed policies.<p>Frankly, zoning and development issues seem easy compared to homelessness. It&#x27;s popular to dehumanize those without money, so the ideas only trickle in. Flint, MI still has poisoned tap water, after all.
BooneJSalmost 7 years ago
No.
d_burfootalmost 7 years ago
&gt; A further constraint... is its wide-ranging rent-control scheme... All three leading candidates... would like to see it expanded.<p>I read this in about the same light as if I read that all three candidates believe in homeopathy and intelligent design.
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