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Power Laws and Rich-Get-Richer Phenomena (2010) [pdf]

139 pointsby marojejianalmost 7 years ago

9 comments

specialistalmost 7 years ago
Preferential attachment, power laws, rich-get-richer, winner-takes-all is just math. Life (fortune, luck) is intrinsically unfair.<p>Explaining reality is not a moral statement.<p>Ignoring reality, or worse rationalizing it, is immoral.<p>Happily, thru the arc of humanity history, numerous societies have chosen to mitigate the unfairness. Some proven strategies are expanding the franchise (enfranchisement), redistributing windfall profits, debt jubilees, jobs programs, social safety nets.
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soVeryTiredalmost 7 years ago
For what it&#x27;s worth, showing a straight line on a log-log plot isn&#x27;t really enough to demonstrate existence of a power law.<p>Most papers that test for the existence of power laws don&#x27;t test goodness-of-fit for other distribtions. The lognormal distribution is often just as good a fit to the data. This paper covers a lot of the frequent problems in academic literature that tries to fit power laws:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;abs&#x2F;0706.1062" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;abs&#x2F;0706.1062</a>
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sharemywinalmost 7 years ago
Here&#x27;s link to the whole book:<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cs.cornell.edu&#x2F;home&#x2F;kleinber&#x2F;networks-book&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cs.cornell.edu&#x2F;home&#x2F;kleinber&#x2F;networks-book&#x2F;</a>
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baybal2almost 7 years ago
This is not a case of this being some kind math or graph theory phenomenon. In the Western world, it is to very big extend thanks to the rich being given a privileged status by the monetary policy.<p>In all Western countries - the state is the ultimate creditor. The bigger you are, the closer you are in line to the money water tap, the easier it is to get loan financing for your businesses or (more often this days) LBO play. It is few rich people in the West who &quot;made&quot; their own money through business revenue.<p>Second to that is the existence of stock market, where the people closer to the financial water tap, park all money they got from it.<p>As for why it happens in poorest counties, it easier to understand there. In much of them the top 10 &quot;businessmen&quot; will be former officials (if not acting one.)
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ouidalmost 7 years ago
&gt;the question of how popularity is distributed over the set of Web pages ... A natural guess is the normal, or Gaussian, distribution — the so-called “bell curve”<p>If this is your guess, then you have absolutely no idea what you are doing.
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Nomentatusalmost 7 years ago
The collapsing black hole, as I called it many years ago. Eventually there&#x27;s not enough power outside the inner circle to reverse the concentration of wealth and power: at least, that was Marx&#x27;s analysis, particularly of the cycles of warlordism (of a few centuries) in Chinese history, if I remember rightly. Enough time and the aristocracy becomes incompetent and dissolves into revolution and the cycle starts again.
ForHackernewsalmost 7 years ago
Related <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ofdollarsanddata.com&#x2F;why-winners-keep-winning-4e7f221f5b84" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ofdollarsanddata.com&#x2F;why-winners-keep-winning-4e7f22...</a>
atmozalmost 7 years ago
I just happened to deliver an assignment today about The Barabási-Albert Model. We use this book in class (you can read it online): <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;networksciencebook.com" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;networksciencebook.com</a><p>I had to plot the degree distribution against a power law. Looked something like this (taken from chapter 5): <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;networksciencebook.com&#x2F;images&#x2F;ch-05&#x2F;figure-5-4.jpg" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;networksciencebook.com&#x2F;images&#x2F;ch-05&#x2F;figure-5-4.jpg</a>
arnold8020almost 7 years ago
Below is a repost, but fits very appropriately here, the results are very similar! The pdf pre-dates my small work on this, but you may find the simulation interesting,<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cs.toronto.edu&#x2F;~arnold&#x2F;research&#x2F;80-20&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cs.toronto.edu&#x2F;~arnold&#x2F;research&#x2F;80-20&#x2F;</a><p>Basically you need two things:<p>1) Some slight advantage<p>2) The network effect, that is, for example, the probability of competing depends on the current winnings.<p>(compare with the linked pdf, pg: 548 &#x27;Why do we call this a “rich-get-richer” rule? Because the probability that page L experiences an increase in popularity is directly proportional to L’s current popularity.&#x27;)<p>If you have these two things, you get 80-20 like distributions, you get the explanation for why winners keep winning. If you are interested, you can find my simulation and analysis at<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cs.toronto.edu&#x2F;~arnold&#x2F;research&#x2F;80-20&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cs.toronto.edu&#x2F;~arnold&#x2F;research&#x2F;80-20&#x2F;</a><p>Kind of shocking how well this works. The intuition is, why has Coke won, well they had some initial advantage, and so they won a bit. Now that they have won a bit, they can finance themselves into more competition. For example, they can place themselves into more stores, into more restaurants etc. Now they get a chance to compete more. When I run with rules:<p>r1) Actors have normally distributed abilities,<p>r2) Actors are chosen randomly based on current winnings, the more you have won, the more you compete,<p>r3) Winner of competition wins one point from the loser,<p>You get interesting results, for example, in the two columns below, the left is Household income in 1970 broken into quintiles. The right column is simulation results.<p><pre><code> 4.1% 6.7% 10.8% 11.5% 17.4% 16.0% 24.5% 23.3% 43.3% 45.6% </code></pre> Interesting how well the top 3 or 4 quintiles match between the simulation and the real world data.<p>More such comparisons can be found at <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cs.toronto.edu&#x2F;~arnold&#x2F;research&#x2F;80-20&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cs.toronto.edu&#x2F;~arnold&#x2F;research&#x2F;80-20&#x2F;</a><p>If you run the simulation with different rules, the real world quintiles do not match the simulation quintiles nearly as well. You can tweak the simulation to see this as well.<p>The simulation can be tweaked to handle cases such as inheritance, so an actor with different ability inherits the wealth of a past actor. When I run this simulation, around 80-90% of top 20% actors lose all wealth in 3 generations.