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The Terrifying Lessons of a Pandemic Simulation

115 pointsby scentonialmost 7 years ago

13 comments

reaperduceralmost 7 years ago
There is an interesting amount on behind-the-scenes IT going on for just this sort of disaster, and others, in the government sector.<p>We don&#x27;t hear about any of it, so we assume nothing is being done. But the reason it&#x27;s kept secret is so that people don&#x27;t start freaking out at scary tabloid headlines.<p>For example, there is a thing called &quot;the black web&quot; (different sectors have different names for it). Many U.S. government agencies have websites ready to launch in the event of a catastrophic calamity like a pandemic or a radiation leak that affects millions.<p>Source: Two people I worked with who worked on one of the projects.
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quuxalmost 7 years ago
The opening paragraphs of this article really remind me of the film Contagion, which IIRC tried to portray a pandemic hitting the current world as realistically as possible.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Contagion_(film)" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Contagion_(film)</a>
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marmottusalmost 7 years ago
Reminds me of this game, Plague Inc [1], where you can simulate a plague that starts silently until the symptoms become too strong and starts a race between the deadly decease and the governments looking for a cure together and closing borders to prevent it from spreading.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ndemiccreations.com&#x2F;en&#x2F;22-plague-inc" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ndemiccreations.com&#x2F;en&#x2F;22-plague-inc</a>
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coldcodealmost 7 years ago
We were 1 homeless person away from Ebola in the US, the ambulance in Dallas picked up a homeless guy along with the guy who had Ebola. The homeless guy wandered away from the hospital. While Ebola isn&#x27;t always transmitted by close contact, if it had been I bet there would have been thousands of people within a few days with it. How many doctors or hospitals even recognize Ebola when a random person walks in the door?
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gringoDanalmost 7 years ago
From this article, it seems like the simulation was acted out by people who were <i>formerly</i> in leadership&#x2F;advisory positions in the US government.<p>How likely is it that current leaders heed their advice when an outbreak happens? Wouldn&#x27;t it be more useful to have the people currently in power preparing for this?<p>Honestly asking - I have no idea about the modus operandi of Washington bureaucracy.
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ogennadialmost 7 years ago
&gt; Even within the artificial confines of the simulation, there was a lack of leadership. Everyone agreed that the President had the final word on everything in general, but nobody seemed to be responsible for America’s outbreak response specifically. The table returned endlessly to questions about who would brief Congress; who would be capable of authorizing an emergency deployment of military tents as civilian isolation units; who would call state governors to try to ensure a coördinated national response; and who, even, would attend all the funerals.
mbergeralmost 7 years ago
&gt;Some of the day’s dilemmas revealed vulnerabilities that are hardwired into the American system. Some private hospitals, for instance, turned away Clade X patients in order to protect their shareholders. (By the end of the simulation, American health care had been forcibly nationalized.)<p>GL HF with that. What really would have happened is that the government does what it always does: throw money at the problem. Every hospital gets x dollars to prepare or gets x dollars per confirmed diagnosis. Change like that never happens during a crisis, always after.
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EdwardCoffinalmost 7 years ago
This sort of reminds me a of a story Danny Hillis has told about Shell Oil and how they were the only major oil company that handled the 1980s oil glut [1] at all well, because the executives had played through a simulation of it. He talked about this in the 2000 game developer&#x27;s conference keynote [2] (from about 12:30 - 15:26). I&#x27;ve transcribed that bit below:<p><i>I think sensible business people are also playful business people. And I think that any great development project, or any great engineering project, you can feel it, you can walk into the room and see people playing around, and you can see if they&#x27;re acting seriously.<p>There was actually an interesting case, I don&#x27;t think they would think of this as a game, but it was literally a game development story: Shell Oil.<p>Shell Oil -- in the 1980&#x27;s, there was a time when the price of oil took a big dive, now Shell Oil it turns out was the only company that handled that situation well, and here&#x27;s why:<p>Before then, oil was going up, up, up, and in order to be a good oil company you basically had to drill wells as fast as possible, increase production capacity as fast as possible, and pretty much all the oil companies were doing that. The strategic planners at Shell Oil realized that the price of oil might start going down, and that was bad news that no one in the oil industry wanted to do, nobody really wanted to believe it. So they thought about how to get these Shell Oil executives to actually pay attention to it, and they realized the only way they would actually pay attention to this idea was in the context of play.<p>So what they did is they basically built a simulation game of the oil industry, and they had the Shell Oil executives sit there in the game and put in their assumptions and play it out sort of like SimCity or something like that, of what oil prices would do, according to their assumptions. So they all played little roles, like one of them was an oil sheik, and another one was OPEC, another their competitive refineries, things like that, and they played out the consequences of various games. And one of the things that happened is in every one of their scenarios, the price of oil would crash. And everyone started laughing and they thought this was really silly, because of course everybody knew this wouldn&#x27;t happen. But after they played this game a while, they started realizing that there were patterns that would happen. They were able to learn in the safety of a game what they really couldn&#x27;t ever think in the danger of a real spreadsheet they were running the business with.<p>And in fact, that&#x27;s what play lets people do. It lets them learn in safe situations things that are actually going to be useful in life. And in fact, in that particular example, Shell Oil realized from their playing that it was actually plausible that the price of oil would collapse, they took some steps to scale back some of their refineries and things like that, and they were the only major oil company that was actually in good shape when that happened.</i><p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;1980s_oil_glut" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;1980s_oil_glut</a><p>[2] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.gdcvault.com&#x2F;play&#x2F;1014862&#x2F;2000-GDC-Keynote-Dr-Daniel" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.gdcvault.com&#x2F;play&#x2F;1014862&#x2F;2000-GDC-Keynote-Dr-Dan...</a> (requires Flash. The whole talk is pretty good, and immediately preceding this bit is are funny anecdotes about Richard Feynman and Marvin Minsky)
sigsergvalmost 7 years ago
The best pandemic simulation was Corrputed Blood Incident[1].<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Corrupted_Blood_incident" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Corrupted_Blood_incident</a>
ourmandavealmost 7 years ago
How did it end? Did they run out of cubes, player cards, or have 8 outbreaks?
jrjarrettalmost 7 years ago
Those wily blue cubes, getting out of control.... usually, it&#x27;s the black disease cubes that outbreak.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Pandemic_(board_game)" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Pandemic_(board_game)</a>
omegaworksalmost 7 years ago
&gt;Rear Admiral Tim Ziemer, had been removed from his position as the head of global health security on the White House’s National Security Council after the Trump Administration cut funds for fighting pandemics.<p>The present administration isn&#x27;t interested in preserving the status quo in the event of a pandemic. They are interested in preserving the whiteness of America. An epidemic that they can shape the response and resources around to cull the immigrant, native and slave-descended population would serve their supremacist vision.<p>4,600 are dead in Puerto Rico due to their negligence. [1]<p>4,600 is a <i></i>conservative<i></i> estimate.<p>1. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nejm.org&#x2F;doi&#x2F;full&#x2F;10.1056&#x2F;NEJMsa1803972" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nejm.org&#x2F;doi&#x2F;full&#x2F;10.1056&#x2F;NEJMsa1803972</a>
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Bromsklossalmost 7 years ago
What was the lesson?