Full article:
<a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/611397/machine-learning-predicts-world-cup-winner/" rel="nofollow">https://www.technologyreview.com/s/611397/machine-learning-p...</a>
I always wonder if those people have tried to fit their approach to past results. Could they simulate past World Cup results to be sure their method is sane by using player/team's archived statistics?
I once had run my own prediction of the FIFA World Cup.
I used elo ratings from <a href="http://eloratings.net/Europe" rel="nofollow">http://eloratings.net/Europe</a> which i converted into a model giving probabilities for any outcome between two teams.
For each group A-F and for each possible pair of teams (a,b) in that group, i estimated the probability for them to qualify in that order using monte carlo simulation. Doing this explicitly should reduce overall estimation variance. Using that data i calculated the probaility for each team to become world champion using exact formulas.
The results looked reasonable to me. What i have learned was, that the chances of extreme outsiders typically are extremly over estimated by the book makers. I have checked this paper for comparison (Table 8) and think the results are in line with my observation. I remember vaguely having heard, that there is a similar observation for stock options, which are extremly out of the money, there are typically much too expensive to buy.
The bottom line is, never to bet on Korea or Japan getting FIFA world champion :-)
I don't think any ML models can take into consideration the meltdown like Brazil vs. Germany in 2014 or player getting sent-off and changing the dynamics of the game. Football/soccer (along with field hockey) is much more unpredictable than any other team sport.
[Somewhat related] I remember that someone posted a worldcup simulator during the 2014 championship. <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7941898" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7941898</a><p>After playing a little with it, my takeaway was that the FIFA index is worthless (too political?) so I'd not pay attention to it. Also, the ESPN index was one of the better predictors, so I'd look almost only at it.
FIFA has the reputation of favoring the big market countries, and scandals happen. Did the model here include the probability of poor and biased referees?
?
Anyway I'm looking forward to the World Cup, but wish it wasn't so early on the West Coast.
The first matches I'm especially looking forward to
Spain vs Portugal
&
Mexico vs Germany
Should be fun !
Compared to betting odds (<a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/competition/5614746" rel="nofollow">https://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/competition/561474...</a>) this approach thinks that Brazil is much less likely to win.
I do not think that the germans are the top favorite.<p>First of all, not a lot of teams won the cup twice in a row<p>Second it's way harder if everybody is focused on you
(because you won the last time)<p>I'm pretty sure barley any data can reflect these two statements. (ok the first one can, but the second one is a more emotionell effect)
In contrast, a fully human approach using a prediction market: <a href="https://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com/challenges/167-2018-fifa-world-cup" rel="nofollow">https://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com/challenges/167-2018...</a>
This is a perfect example of abuse of ML. Last world cup ML predictions were a joke. I guess we won't learn the lesson. And if by chance any of these predictions work, we'll take it as a valid thing.
In 2006 world cup I had predicted to colleagues that Italy will win just because I liked them. I stood by this throughout and viola! It happened.<p>Last WC my prediction was Argentina (reached the final).<p>I feel intuitions do matter. This time: Argentina again
Oh gawd. Please stop.<p>The Economist is doing it. 538 has done one. Everyone is doing it.<p>They all wind up with similar predictions.<p>Germany, Brazil, France and Spain are favourites.<p>This is what the betting odds, transfermarkt and the mean salaries of the teams also tell you.<p>There are limits to prediction. The WC is a good place for people to learn that.