Sure it shows the algorithm beats a hold strategy in 8/10 instances...<p>...but the "hodlometer.com" domain was registered 3 days ago.<p>It's trivial to develop an algorithm by cherry-picking parameters that will give any desired results for historical data.<p>But there's vast research on how it's impossible to predict/beat the market like this in reality [1], and this site is obviously designed to prey on the uneducated and naive.<p>[1] For a good intro, see chapter 5 of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" which talks about "technical analysis", which is exactly what HODLometer is doing -- <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393352242" rel="nofollow">https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393352242</a>
I don't understand. I know what [hf]odl mean. Can anyone tell me what these charts and conclusions are trying to communicate here?<p>edit: I mistakenly assumed the HN would the understand the regex of "[hf]odl" was just a clever way of saying hodl/fodl. No need for more comments explaining those terms.
The philosophy behind HODL is that you need to hold for 5-10 years plus in order for the strategy to work. The 1-year timespan in the graphs on the site are way too short.<p>If you want to cherry pick a point to "disprove" HODL, just look at the fact that in November 2013 Bitcoin traded at an eye-watering $950+, and then for 2.5 years beat a steady retreat to $400.<p>At this point, bitcoin can taper down to $3K in value till 2020 and we would not have seen anything new in terms of relative price movement over a fix timespan.<p>For those who have watched bitcoin for a while, 2018 is just 2014 all over again, except this time a lot more people are paying attention.
> FODL is selling your Bitcoin for a <i>stablecoin such as USDT (Tether) or TUSD</i><p>USDT? I don't think that is a good advice. Maybe a better one will be to sell BTC in exchange for a HODL coin instead?
Would love more details on how the algorithm works, and your thought process behind it (e.g. what other indicators you've looked at, why). You don't have to disclose your secret sauce, but it would give me a lot more trust.<p>Backtested returns are not reliable.