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31% of likely voters think US civil war likely within 5 years

16 pointsby mikenycalmost 7 years ago

4 comments

toasterlovinalmost 7 years ago
I can&#x27;t actually see how a civil war would work mechanically. The right side of the political divide makes up almost all of the armed forces, first responders, and police; their civilians also own most of the guns; and they control the food supply.<p>Beyond all of that, though, my reading of history is that civil wars usually have a geographic component. So, there is usually one region (that may be home to a different ethnic group) which elevates it&#x27;s political grievances into actual war. But how would that even work in the United States? This isn&#x27;t like the US civil war where it was the North against the South. This would be geographically isolated urban cores versus their surrounding suburbs and rural areas.<p>And, finally, I don&#x27;t think Americans have the stomach for casualties. Life is pretty damned good here. So good that we soured on Iraq and Afghanistan after a few thousand casualties (where we never even had to look at dead bodies, just flag-draped caskets). Somehow I don&#x27;t see us being okay with the corpses of our dead children littering the streets of Los Angeles or Manhattan.
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SCAQTonyalmost 7 years ago
The only scenario I can see of a civil war happening is if it follows the same template or series of events that occurred in 1860. i.e. Some state or states declare independence and create their own currency. I don&#x27;t think that is going to happen but nationalized terrorism within seem plausible due to the way some &quot;tribes&quot; are advocating violence against journalists.
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doogliusalmost 7 years ago
The ordering of the questions [0] strikes me as lending to a priming [1] effect, the first two questions evoke memories of media reports of violence on both sides, which makes the leap to civil war seem more likely by the third question.<p>[0] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.rasmussenreports.com&#x2F;public_content&#x2F;politics&#x2F;questions&#x2F;pt_survey_questions&#x2F;june_2018&#x2F;questions_civil_war_june_21_and_24_2018" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.rasmussenreports.com&#x2F;public_content&#x2F;politics&#x2F;ques...</a><p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Priming_(psychology)" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Priming_(psychology)</a>
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cyberpipalmost 7 years ago
Great discussion on <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.reddit.com&#x2F;r&#x2F;AskHistorians&#x2F;comments&#x2F;8t4py1&#x2F;would_a_regular_us_citizen_in_1860_be_able_to_see&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.reddit.com&#x2F;r&#x2F;AskHistorians&#x2F;comments&#x2F;8t4py1&#x2F;would...</a> recently about the lead up to the American civil war and how people were able to see it coming.