New languages are carried on the backs of new platforms. eg: unix & c; web & javascript.<p>To predict the next big language, predict the next big platform. The upcoming platforms are: smart phones & tablets; cloud computing & many-core. The cloud, being connected services, is largely language-agnostic, and many-core might end up being implemented by borrowing whatever works in the cloud.
The needs of the above seem well-met by established languages, leaving little opportunity for new languages to emerge.<p>What about the next big platform after the above? It's probably more than 10 years off, but Moore's law says smaller devices will come. If disruptive, they'll be attractive to new audiences, with different needs - perhaps along the lines of cochlear neural implants (already big business) or garage genetic-engineering. What languages do those guys happen to be using? They will be carried to success.
JavaScript is going to get much bigger. My money is on that especially with node.js and html5 in the game. I also noticed F# was not even mentioned, purposefully or mistakenly?
My sens tell me "JavaScript". The rise of the Web (especially Web applications), HTML5, Tablets and mobile applications, Server Side JS... I think JavaScript can make a big move. Learn one language and use it in anything you'll even dream of.<p>With its' flexibility, extend the language to support any feature you'd like. Make it Object Oriented, Prototypal, Procedural, your own...
We don't pick our tools to fit the job? The next big language will be determined by the needs of the largest computer user groups. The particular needs of these groups will determine the languages that eventually reach critical mass.<p>Using 5 universal criteria that characterize good programming languages is the wrong approach. For example, in safety critical systems his metric of conciseness is worthless. Ada may sometimes take more lines of code to accomplish a specific task than C but the requirements of safety critical platforms demand the extra effort and cost. The metric is worthless because it isn't picked to coincide with the needs of the users.<p>No one cares that the strong typing or other features in Ada can slow down coding and annoy programmers because this practice eliminates many bugs in the final product. The needs of the end-user for bug free code outweigh their needs to ship quickly and please developers. It is a tool used for a specific job that it handles quite well.<p>Evaluating a programming language with 5 universal metrics ignores that they are tools used to solve the problems of a particular group of users. If you want to figure out what the next big language will be ask what platform will have the most users in the near future and what the needs of those users are. The languages that meet them best are the top choices.
I don't really understand his justification for excluding Erlang. It IS a general purpose language, and I can't see it as any more niche than some of the obscure languages he includes (Clay?).
I find it interesting that he says Go's syntax is ugly, but that Clay programs look so good and readable. The two languages have a very similar basic syntax, and some of the Go's differences are an improvement in my book: no semi-colons, fewer parentheses.
I had an idea the other day about being able to write client-side browser apps in Google Go. I found it very intriguing.<p>My votes are for Go and Javascript. One has a 800lb gorilla behind it, and the other has a ton of momentum, and I agree with the other poster that the maturation of server-side Javascript and the ability to use one language on both ends is very appealing.
Strange that nobody's mentioned scala yet. Clearly it has its detractors, it seems like a credible candidate to displace Java. It also has more traction than a number of these languages, and more importantly there's a huge number of java based developers and organizations who are under pressure to improve productivity and can adopt it incrementally.<p>It seems to me to have fewer barriers to becoming a major language than most of the other contenders.
I'd love to see Mirah hit it big (statically typed Ruby on JVM). Dunno if it will tho: <a href="http://www.mirah.org/" rel="nofollow">http://www.mirah.org/</a>
I was a little surprised with D being listed as one of the main contenders. I guess Clojure and Go were obvious suggestions. Go has the backing of Google and aims to be everything we want (fun/ease of Python, speed of C++) and Clojure is the ancient popular Lisp with a modern twist.<p>I guess I would have expected Javascript and Groovy to be included. Though I might be biased, I worked with a client using Groovy and in that short time saw that there was a lot of use in the (local) industry in it.
The Clay mention makes me really happy. Years ago, I was a part of the small team that was working on its first incarnation, though its a completely different language now and I'm sure its been through half a dozen rewrites since then.
I think a new language could win by being more portable. A compiler that targets Intel and ARM is no longer interesting. But a nice language with a compiler that can create libraries usable in JavaScript apps, iPhone apps, Android apps, and App Engine apps would be very interesting.
Seem many people here have high expectations on JavaScript, cool! :)<p>Also, be sure to check out the JavaScript's kid brother - coffee-script<p><a href="http://jashkenas.github.com/coffee-script/" rel="nofollow">http://jashkenas.github.com/coffee-script/</a>