Hate to be a let-down to what seems to be a very well-researched post, but I ctrl+D-ed for “divorce” on that page and didn’t find any match. Imho “divorce” is the single most important “black swan” event which can negatively influence the life of two persons younger than 40 or 45 (after that age threshold disease seems to be a more worrying black swan-like concern). I’ve made this argument before on related topics and I was told that “if we’d think about divorce just before getting married then people will never form families”, which is probably true, but is also true that the divorce rate sits anywhere between 20% and 50% in the Western world.<p>The naked truth is that every big family-related decision (buying a house, making kids) is a big shot in the dark, with no “assured” positive outcomes.