As Andrew Yang has pointed out, GDP is a pretty poor measurement, and at least in China's case, not transparent and most likely inflated by localities self-reporting to meet central government targets.<p>GDP is proportional to population, so if you have a larger population, your GDP can be proportionately larger. The question is, what's GDP per capita or GDP per capita PPP? China per capita GDP is 1/7th-1/8th of the US, and India per capita GDP is 1/30th of the US, will they make it up in 10 years? China could, if they can keep up their growth and not experience a major recession or depression, which seems unlikely.
Wildly speculative. Turkey is predicted to have 9.1 [some unit], while Germany 6.8 [some unit]. There are two countries with similar demographic profiles, with Germany having 5x the [nominal] GDP of Turkey today. Short of nuclear war or an asteroid landing in Ruhrgebiet, it's hard to imagine what would lead to Turkey's economy overtaking Germany's in 11 years.<p>PS. "nominal GDP using purchasing power parity exchange rates" is nonsense. Not sure if the error lies with the journalist or with the source.
In PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) they will, in real dollars China is forecasted to but India won't be close. As a US based tech company my customers pay me in real dollars so we use real vs. PPP for our market size analysis.<p><a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/271724/forecast-for-the-countries-with-the-highest-gross-domestic-product-gdp-in-2030/" rel="nofollow">https://www.statista.com/statistics/271724/forecast-for-the-...</a><p>In real dollars the US ($19T) still has a substantial lead on China ($12T) today so the 2030 forecasts assume continued substantial growth for China.<p><a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.cd?year_high_desc=true" rel="nofollow">https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.cd?year_hig...</a>
This article is somewhat misleading. Although the image caption says Nominal GDP, the bottom of the image says the GDP is in PPP terms.<p>AFAIK the most optimistic estimates make India the second largest economy in nominal terms measured by exchange rate no earlier than 2050.<p>India is expected to be growing pretty fast. But nowhere close to the rate which would be needed for this to be true in currency exchange rate terms. PPP terms really doesn't mean much.
I know I'm in the minority, but in terms of household income, most of my peers are already at American levels in absolute dollar figures (> $85-100k) here in India.<p>I've also found that US-based clients are far less skeptical of my skills than they used to be half a decade ago, and that they are also willing to pay US rates for quality work (as opposed to expecting third world rates)
Is this the new superpower 2020?<p>I have heard the same horn be tooted in India over the last 2 decades, and India is no closer to the that goal than it was 2 decades ago.<p>The problems India faces can't be solved in 20 years. 1 generation for that is too little.<p>I do however think that India will undergo a massive push ahead the second we have a few cities where expats can return to without incurring a major loss in QOL or effective wages.
The article didn't go into much detail about how all this was calculated out. I don't think they took into account gov debt. that can be a huge factor. Japan for instance has not had any increase in GDP over the last 25 years and that doesn't look like it's going to change. So I don't see how their gdp can jump from 4.8T to 7.2T in just 11 years!<p>Japan is currently at 230% and it weighing very heavily along with their aging population. Their GDP hasn't been increasing at all in the last 25 years. The US is heading in the same direction with budget deficit of 4% every year whilst only growing 3.3% a year. US interest payments are expected to reach 25% of federal spending in 2028 if we continue with our current deficits. At that point, unfortunately US growth will be a complete standstill, for decades to come :(<p>Indonesia is an interesting one to watch, i keep forgetting how much people are in that country!
This is a often reappearing topic, and to some people it sounds like the end of the world, but that's just too sensationalistic.<p>Well, even when it happens, then what?<p>China will still be poorer per capita if it reaches parity in net GDP, and beside the symbolic change in the modulus of GDP gap, nothing will change.
Don't know about china. India will overtake in population maybe but definitely not in other categories( education, innovation, discipline, military, health, agriculture, infrastructure). In 2001-2005 the story was about 2020. In another 10 years no way, in the present scenario in 100 years also no way.<p>Why law & politics ? It's pay per use.
Anyone do the math behind this the Pe^rt math. It would take if the US grew at 2% china would need to grow 6% YoY. Anyone believe that China will still grow at 10% in 10 years. Even with a economy that treats GDP at a input and not a output
PPP is and always will be a garbage metric. Don't compare my Pepperidge Farm 15-Grain bread, sold for $3 a loaf at the supermarket with steamed buns sold for ￥1 each on the street.