Great article on the disconnectedness and short-term-ism:<p>> She said the main thing is just that Miami was being very forward thinking. She mentioned Amsterdam, and how they were making it work, and how the Dutch were just the poster child for how this worked, and that they were sorting out a way to make this work. “I think the takeaway is just that Miami is doing something about it.”<p>Guess this will take a few floodings, billions dollars write-offs, and giant cultural shift to sink in. We Dutch people have "dry feet tax". Some of the organisations that collects those taxes have been founded in the 13th century. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_board_(Netherlands)" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_board_(Netherlands)</a>
I live in Orlando. I have lived in Florida for all of my life (47 years) and I also wonder how we are going to adapt. I don't see any long term planning.<p>A few years ago I was looking for a new office building. Considering the parking situations, I asked each developer what they were planning for electric cars, Ubers, and autonomous cars. None of them had a plan. They all said such changes were 20 years or more away. I was surprised at this because I predict it taking much less than 20 years for these changes to have a big impact.<p>I moved into a newly built high-rise apartment building in downtown Orlando 15 months ago. The building is less than two years old. There are not enough charging outlets in the garage to accommodate all of the electric cars. It will be an expensive refit to upgrade the garage.<p>I don't know how it works elsewhere, but the entire real estate industry in Florida is not capable of long term thinking.
This article is patent nonsense. Nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen to Miami in 50 years including the author, and an anecdotal poll of front line real estate agents is mindless.<p>Even in that context the real estate agent’s worldview seems a lot more sanguine than hers. History has shown in this country that you’re a lot more likely to be right predicting that the rich will figure out how to preserve their assets than betting on the other side of that argument.<p>A shame because it’s an interesting topic.<p>What will a city like Miami look like in 50 years? It’s an interesting question with a lot of unpredictability in it, based on combinations of climate science, financial predictions, cultural shifts, and some guesswork.<p>Would have loved to read an article about the various perspectives on that, but that would have required the author to really do some work. Instead they decided they knew the answer already and flew there to make fun of people just trying to get through a day at work.
As often seems to be the case in many parts of the US, the city of Miami is unlikely to muster the political will to do anything about this existential threat until after the city's businesses and residents have suffered serious, irreversible consequences. Think permanent loss. Few things can create as much political will as an irreversible crisis.<p>By then, of course, it will likely be too late for prevention, so the solution will have to be technological. Engineers of all kinds will have to come to the rescue of Miami and many other low-lying/coastal cities in the US.
I wish she had talked to some loan officers at local banks. I bet she'd get a different picture to contrast with that of the realtors. Of course realtors are going to pretend like they don't care even if they do (although they probably don't). Once the sale goes through, they don't care if the house is swept away the next day. Banks on the other hand are in this for the next thirty years. From what I understand, some are hesitant or even refuse to offer thirty year mortgages in Miami. That's a story if it is indeed true.
One company could change all this: Fitch Ratings.<p>They do credit ratings of packages of securitized mortgages. Right now, they don't look at "will parcel be flooded before the mortgage runs out". If they did, mortgages on submerged property would be much more expensive.<p>Startup opportunity here. Come up with a system which reads through a package of mortgages and quantifies the climate change risk. Sell this to the major traders in securitized mortgages - AIG (yes, them again), Credit Suisse, etc.
What happens 50 years from now should matter relatively little for people living there now. Property owners and banks start discounting the resale value of the land and large property investments, but it's gradual process.<p>After discounting property values, Miami will be cheaper place to live in the future and that means that it may attract even more people.
Related, a very good episode of the <i>New Yorker Radio Hour</i> podcast on the subject of climate and real-estate in Florida.<p><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/the-new-yorker-radio-hour/the-financial-crash-and-the-climate-crisis" rel="nofollow">https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/the-new-yorker-radio-hour/...</a>
I don't doubt the sea level is rising and that Miami will be inundated. But I think there's too much money and development put into that city so people won't just give up and leave in 30 years. Instead I think there will be increased investment in technology and infrastructure to keep the waters at bay. It might become something more akin to Venice or Amsterdam.
Tl;dr: The author went to Miami and spoke to real estate agents, whose job it is to sell property, whether they thought climate change is going to make real estate a bad purchase. Surprisingly, the real estate agents, whose livelihood depends on selling homes, minimized the dangers of global warming.
Is it possible that people just keep filling the sea to keep the land? Sure rebuilding will be needed, but tearing apart 50 year old buildings shouldn't be too controversial. It looks like they already raising the roads and installing pumping stations. If this happens than it would take much more than 6 feet of sea level rise to fear from climate change.
This article would be so much better if the author did not keep pausing to editorialize and interpret the opinions and perspective of her subjects. Trust the reader to draw their own conclusions. This style of writing insults our intelligence. All the worse because the approach and topic are quite good.
Does the author know the difference between east and west? Seems a pretty important fact that she mangled in an attempt to disparage the real estate agent, but she’s the one who gets it wrong.