I am pretty sure that China is going to take a temporary hit but in the end they will emerge stronger than ever. I think China will also redouble on their efforts to be full self-sufficient in all high tech areas, even if they have to open up for a sanction relief deal, their population will so favor local competitors, that it won't matter.<p>China's rise will continue and dominant until their demographic bubble bursts and they turn into Japan when a falling population. I am curious if China can change course on its demographics in a way that Japan couldn't? Tech dominance is all but assured but if the demographics issue isn't resolved, they will clearly stagnant.
This is the thing that economists have been pointing out for decades: at the country scale, allowing free trade provides productivity benefits to both sides, and restricting it affects both sides. You can't have a trade war without domestic casualties.<p>What's crazier is that the strategy of economically integrating China with the world was a Rebublican economic-liberal one to start with. The plan was to make the rest of the world look like America and be trading partners, <i>providing markets for American companies</i>. Someone forgot the last bit.
Only 8.4% of US exports are to China, but the number is probably higher for semiconductors. It would have been nice if the article had mentioned what that number actually is.
I believe this not only affecting the US.<p>I still have not quite understood the deal around ARM, that will stop cooperating with Huawei. This is a UK based company, owned by a Japanese conglomerate, Softbank, but they were still affected because they have a development center in Texas.<p>The logical conclusion would be that if you are a global company and want to keep selling to China (or to whoever will get a trade ban or sanction), you should not incorporate any US tech, or have US development teams. This seems to be quite counterproductive from the US point of view, it means that investing in the US expose you to additional risks.
What has damaged the US chip industry is the overeliance upon old IP for "new" products, combined with lack of investment in industries that would benefit from more cutting edge tech, thus enabling state owned manufactures in china to eat their lunch in asia in this upcoming decade.<p>You'd have to be really on the pipe to ignore the declining sales volume of derivative products the past couple of years (masked quite nicely by corporates willing to buy back shares and employ a host of reporting tricks) before this trade war™ nonsense.
>To ease the blow, Micron appears to have found a workaround. It said it had recently resumed some shipments to Huawei based on its interpretation of the Trump administration’s restrictions, noting that some goods produced by American companies overseas are not always considered American-made.<p>This sounds like the trade war is discouraging US-based manufacturing
Well you dont get to be the sole superpower in the world by competing against healthy opponents with natural advantages. The reality is Americans are not so competitive, let's say, against other hungrier demographics. It's really in America's best interest to cripple the Chinese economy, as well as other big competitors <i>cough</i>EU which is where these policies are coming from. Otherwise you cant win against a relatively high tech country with a massive population being pushed through STEM and a heavy handed government that orchestrates a great deal of their technological pursuits for the purpose of strengthening the country so as to position it against global competitors, as opposed to say lining pockets or pandering to a base.
How competitive is Kirin compared to Qualcomm chips. Is it feasible for China govt. to 'motivate' Xiaomi, BBK and other local companies to use it?
Any country that is dealing with China today should think twice. A dictatorship (till death do us part) with brains - capitalism - faster than the capitalists. China wants to grow, at everyone else's expense. Walking shoulder to shoulder with every terrorist nation on the planet (You know a person from the friends they keep). Suppression (Tibet, Hongkong, Taiwan). I think its time the world woke up? I am glad the Trump team is listening.
The semiconductor is game-changing tech. When America allowed the Hygon Dhyana to be made, America fucked up. Hold it back. This is real tech. You can't let it go.<p>I'm for free societies, but free societies must defend themselves from societies organized to kill free societies. The semiconductor is real. Giving away this will pay poor dividends.