I remember seeing a white paper (from some government agency or the RAND institute) back in the 90's (actually probably learned about in some NPR interview) that predicted wars over water starting around the point we are now (approaching 2020). I've seen some news reports that this is already happening. One example being tensions/conflict between Israel and Lebanon. News reports generally treat it as an ideological conflict but this argues looking at the material basis for the conflict.<p>Another lesser example being legal/political wrangling here in western US among states over Colorado River rights.<p>It'd be interesting to dig up some of those white papers / predictions and see how credible accurate their predictions like this were.<p>Not exactly the same thing as climate change but certainly connected.
Actually the research experts say climate change is a small factor with regards to increased conflict.<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01830-2" rel="nofollow">https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01830-2</a>
This was assessed by the Pentagon back in 2014
> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20141013222428/https://www.acq.osd.mil/ie/download/CCARprint.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://web.archive.org/web/20141013222428/https://www.acq.o...</a><p>And it's pretty straightforward: as water, arable land and other resources become scarcer, then groups facing severe shortages will fight over the leftover resources.
It's impossible to tell what the impact of climate change will be overall. Maybe more wars, but maybe less wars...<p>Maybe food will be less scarce... Maybe Congo will have more wars, but maybe by some random fashion, climate change will prevent some kind of world war iii.<p>Climate change is a disaster for the fauna and flora of the world. It will displace a lot of people. But anything more complex is impossible to say.
Climate change as stated is not of course the main cause of wars, but its increasingly becoming one. Fighting for resources is inevitable, even between sages conflict would arise on who is entitled to what. Wait to see these lunatic world leaders shifting their starvation from oil to water. As mentioned it's already happening. To maximize the chaos politicians play this as a card for their agenda, as scarcity reigns, they will use it to scrap vote. There was an article mentioned earlier on HN about a city in India that has completely ran out of drinkable water. I'd say things look pretty grim, even for the optimist.
Does anybody have a link to the full article? The introduction paragraphs sound like the issues is more about Islamic extremism than climate change. How does the article attempt to link these two concepts?