These are all good and all, but does anyone see a reason for the "Likelihood: Very likely" below each prediction? Every single one just says "likely" in different wording.<p>Is it to make readers more agreeable? Is it to note authority?
Mac App store to do $1B in 2011? Seems pretty unlikely to me. Looks like the mobile store in June '10 had done about ~1.3B in total since launch [1]. A key difference here is choice and installed base - every iPhone app purchase has to go through Apple's store, and nobody had a big existing library of software they had purchased for the platform. I'm sure apple will do quite well with their Mac store, but the dynamics are different enough that I wouldn't expect them to soundly crush the mobile store in their first year - let alone an incomplete calendar year.<p>[1] <a href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/breaking_down_apples_appstore_stats_infographic.php" rel="nofollow">http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/breaking_down_apples_ap...</a>
Thanks for those predictions. Futurology, whether extrapolating trends or trying to predict disruptions is pretty tricky. I've got a couple of old books from the 1920's which attempt to show what the future holds. Here are some of those images [scanned in and from AM LOW]:<p><a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/brettdonovan/AMLOW#5471538663829616354" rel="nofollow">http://picasaweb.google.com/brettdonovan/AMLOW#5471538663829...</a><p>It would seem that one can extrapolate rather well. Particularly well on the abundant communications, however as always - the flying car is out of reach.
There already have been youtube millionaires. The auto-tune guys, who netted 500k on the "hide your kids, hide your wife" song and much more from the rest of their tracks.<p>Also, Jon la Joie is up there too, as well as that girl who talks about 17 year old clothes and make up.
All of these are predictions of movements of existing products, which are interesting. But, any opinion or predictions for new products such as Chrome OS? Google Me? Emerging startups like Diaspora or Frid.ge trying to take out Facebook? Social gaming skipping Facebook and doing something revolutionary?
Apple has said that the Mac App Store will be available in early January for Snow Leopard. Wouldn't be surprised to see it be "even better" on Lion once it eventually ships, but Snow Leopard is definitely supported.