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Microsoft is Dead

97 pointsby rajivnover 14 years ago
Would like to know if PG's stance on MS has changed

21 comments

AlexC04over 14 years ago
According to analytics, I've had 20,000 hits to my website in the last 30 days. 75% of those are reported to be running a windows operating system.<p>As much as I respect the interesting point of view presented in the article, I sometimes wonder if sites like Hacker News and Slashdot don't put us all into some sort of exceptionally nerdy bubble-think.<p>Like with the last week or so when everything I read seemed to say "google sucks", "lynch google", "burn and raze googles offices so they can never spam search results again"<p>What was the rest of the world's reaction to this seemingly endless flood of histrionic blog posts about broken google search results? Crickets chirped and a tumbleweed yawned with boredom.<p>Microsoft isn't dead. From what I see, in the last 30 days Microsoft is a minimum of 75% alive and we'd all be very much richer if we didn't forget that.<p>With the utmost respect of course.<p>Without exaggeration, hyperbole will literally be the death of us all.
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kbobover 14 years ago
Remember IBM? From 1960 through ~1985, IBM was the only answer for enterprise computing. And there really wasn't any other kind of computing then. IBM Research did everything from semiconductor research to databases to virtual machines. IBM was the hottest stock in the market in the 1960s, passing $600/share. (That's about $4,000 in today's money.) They eventually faded, as their customers moved to a combination of desktop PCs and servers and other companies' servers.<p>IBM is still with us. They're having to reinvent themselves regularly, because the only concept they own is still "Mainframe", and they failed to hold on to "PC". But they're still a huge company selling systems and professional services.<p>I expect Microsoft to go the same way. There will be significant but dwindling demand for Windows for 30 more years. (But probably not Azure, Windows Mobile, or XBox.) They will stay alive, and even prosper moderately, on that business.
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Matt_Cuttsover 14 years ago
I remember when pg first wrote this. A lot of people misunderstood the headline. From the pg's Cliffs notes: "What I meant was not that Microsoft is suddenly going to stop making money, but that people at the leading edge of the software business no longer have to think about them." That's at <a href="http://paulgraham.com/cliffsnotes.html" rel="nofollow">http://paulgraham.com/cliffsnotes.html</a><p>So the two definitions pg gave in 2007 were "You don't have have to be afraid of Microsoft" and the definition above.
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zdwover 14 years ago
There are two Microsofts:<p>- The one that does interesting, innovative stuff but a failure/modest success in the marketplace (online, xbox, sync interface for cars, zune, windows phone 7)<p>- The "legacy" one that makes windows, office, and server apps, which makes a ton on licensing.<p>Nobody likes "legacy" microsoft, and it's the most vulnerable, but also has the most momentum behind them. People develop on or support the dominant platform to earn a paycheck, thus the dominant platform stays in place.<p>Until the PC goes away, and there's a huge shift to do real work off our phones/tablets/other non-legacy devices, MS will most likely be dominant in terms of market share.
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swombatover 14 years ago
1) Yes, it still holds.<p>2) Don't editorialise the headline. It gives a distinctly Reddit-like feel to the place. The correct way to post this would have been to do an Ask HN and include the link in the body.<p>3) "How many...?" is obviously a poll question, so create a poll.
mooism2over 14 years ago
Microsoft still matter: they control Internet Explorer and they control Windows. If they were to add SNI support to Windows XP, for example, https sites could be hosted more cheaply.<p>But Microsoft is not the monopolist it used to be. PG used "dead" to mean "is not scary any more", not "is slowly going bankrupt". So I think his conclusion still holds.
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rywangover 14 years ago
Microsoft Research is one of the top 10 computer science research organizations in the world. Some of the work done there (such as the Kinect) is game changing and will continue to be a resource Microsoft can draw upon.<p>As an MIT PhD student, I know many people who are eager to work at Microsoft research.<p>[1] <a href="http://academic.research.microsoft.com/RankList?entitytype=7&#38;domainID=24&#38;last=0&#38;start=1&#38;end=100" rel="nofollow">http://academic.research.microsoft.com/RankList?entitytype=7...</a> [2] <a href="http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2010/11/features/the-game-changer" rel="nofollow">http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2010/11/features/the...</a>
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jcfreiover 14 years ago
The perception of who's 'alive' really depends on the perspective. If you're dealing with software solution consultants you can't get around IBM - but if you're a small software developer you might just as well never have heard of them.<p>just for the record, take a look at the revenue and employe numbers to see what has changed since the 1960s (big blue is still on top):<p>IBM $95.75 billion / 399'409 (2009)<p>Microsoft $62.48 billion / 89'000 (2010)<p>Apple $65.23 billion / 49'400 (2010)<p>Google $23.65 billion / 23'331 (2010)
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patrickkover 14 years ago
I remember reading somewhere that IBM makes something like <i>$8bn per year</i> still from mainframe computer sales. If IBM are doing that - two major computer architecture iterations along the line - (client-server and now cloud coming along), then that bodes well for Microsoft's survival, but perhaps not their relevance.<p>Startups aren't going to go after highly conservative organisations like banks who won't risk changing from mainframes for no obvious gain. So there will be a market for Microsoft technologies (their OS and Office in particular) for a long, long time; long after consumers are mainly using Android/Linux/Macintosh-based tablets or other portable devices to do their personal computing.
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GeorgeTirebiterover 14 years ago
This sentiment is not new. See "Microsoft at Apogee" by John Walker (founder of Autodesk, and a really brilliant guy): <a href="http://www.fourmilab.ch/documents/msapogee.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.fourmilab.ch/documents/msapogee.html</a><p>Note the date: 9 Feb 1997 (!)
ankimalover 14 years ago
Even 3 years later, this is still true. The only thing MS has is Windows and Office (the only MS product, in my opinion that is real quality). MS will not die but will become irrelevant. The way they kept jacking up PC hardware requirements for Windows, Internet bandwidths will keep becoming bigger and better and "thick" clients will become irrelevant. Everything eventually will be on the web and that day is sooner than we think it is. (For some its already here)
kingsidharthover 14 years ago
&#62; I know they seemed dangerous as late as 2001, <i>because I wrote an essay</i> then about how they were less dangerous than they seemed.<p>Didn't get it. They seemed dangerous because Paul wrote an essay?
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noelchurchillover 14 years ago
Can someone please make a website ismicrosoftdead.com similar to <a href="http://isitchristmas.com/" rel="nofollow">http://isitchristmas.com/</a>.
Encosiaover 14 years ago
I doubt that anyone working at Sony or Nintendo shares this apathy toward Microsoft's continued ability to enter and disrupt an industry.
Aegeanover 14 years ago
"A few days ago I suddenly realized Microsoft was dead." haha that's a great sentence to start an article.
j_bakerover 14 years ago
I find pg's proposed way of Microsoft becoming a contender again interesting. I don't doubt that he'd like Microsoft to start buying up more Web 2.0 startups. Granted, that doesn't make him wrong. I just find it interesting.
nivertechover 14 years ago
What means death of Microsoft? It means fragmentation on the desktop (similar to what we have on the mobile):<p><pre><code> * MacOS X on x86, maybe even desktop version OSX/iOS on ARM? * Wintel (Windows on x86), WARM (Windows 8 on ARM) * ChromeOS on x86 and on ARM * Linux on x86 and ARM (Gnome, KDE, Unity, etc.)</code></pre> I predict that native desktop software will become more expensive, while generic HTML5 versions will be ad-supported or subscription based. Assuming, that HTML5 family of standards will be fully adopted.<p>With all these new AppStores and Marketplaces ISVs will be able to save money on marketing and sales, but they will need to spend several times more money on developing for several desktops platforms/CPU architectures.
kehersover 14 years ago
<i>Checks post date. Noticed it is 2007. Moves on</i>
Stormbringerover 14 years ago
Wow, lots of hatorade on the drinks menu today. I of course had the same reaction as everybody else to the sensationalist headline... but when I read the article I agreed with pretty much everything he said.<p>I suppose that is fair and preserves my strong PG contrarian streak, the articles everyone else loves I hate, and the articles everyone else hates, I love.<p>==== From the article:<p>So if they wanted to be a contender again, this is how they could do it:<p>(1) Buy all the good "Web 2.0" startups. They could get substantially all of them for less than they'd have to pay for Facebook.<p>(2) Put them all in a building in Silicon Valley, surrounded by lead shielding to protect them from any contact with Redmond.<p>I feel safe suggesting this, because they'd never do it. Microsoft's biggest weakness is that they still don't realize how much they suck. They still think they can write software in house. Maybe they can, by the standards of the desktop world. But that world ended a few years ago.<p>====<p>This is brilliant. And when we look at the Microsoft Kin Phone Debacle of 2010, we see that indeed they splashed the cash to buy a startup (Danger) to get into the smartphone game, but they critically failed the second part of the plan, which is the lead shielding bit.<p>This is why PG is a genius, and this is why we can say that Microsoft is dead. Because they are the problem. The problem with Microsoft <i>is</i> Microsoft. Because they are irrelevant, and to Microsoft being irrelevant is worse than death.<p>One of the things I've noticed about Microsoft over the last couple of years, is that when someone leaves Microsoft, and they blog about it (as you do), and then you get ex-Microsofties arguing with current-Microsofties, is that they have their own weird sub-culture and language that is incomprehensible to anyone on the outside. The more inward focused they become, the less and less relevant to everyone on the outside they will be. This is another sign of their decline.<p>Joel Spolsky said some interesting things about this, on the topic of hiring programmers. Someone asked him how much a programmer should be paid, and he said that across the industry there was a pretty uniform amount of profit that a company can make per programmer - something like $100k-200k, but that there are a couple of exceptions to this rule, one is Microsoft, because the Windows and Office parts of their business are ridiculously profitable, and the other is Google. And that Microsoft makes millions per programmer, so they can afford to go out and hire the good and the bad, in order simply to prevent them from working for their competitors. So they hire all these people, and then ignore them or put them to work on bike sheds. I think it is very dangerous for a company of any size to ignore their smart people, and this is another sign of their decline.
DealsForHackersover 14 years ago
Replace "Microsoft" with "Google", and this article suddenly captures the zeitgeist of today's startup environment.
Hovover 14 years ago
I understand he meant that nobody is scared of Microsoft anymore. I guess the question I have is, is there a company that exists that everybody IS scared of? No. So I rather chalk it up to a sign of the times.
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