>renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand<p>Hmm, not sure about that "much easier to transport" part. A cube 3 meters on a side can contain enough gasoline to power the average car for its entire lifespan. The gasoline is a liquid, it is relatively easy to move it between containers. Any technology that is capable of moving macroscopic amounts of matter is capable of moving gasoline. You can haul it on a bicycle, you can haul it on an airplane. To transport electricity you need to make sure there are power lines and batteries arranged in a certain way.
><i>“For a given capital outlay on oil and renewables, how much useful energy at the wheel do we get? Our analysis indicates that for the same capital outlay today, new wind and solar-energy projects in tandem with battery electric vehicles will produce six to seven times more useful energy at the wheels than will oil at $60 per barrel for gasoline powered light-duty vehicles, and three to four times more than will oil at $60 per barrel for light-duty vehicles running on diesel,”</i><p>If these figures are even in the rough ballpark of being correct, then it is all over bar the shouting.<p>><i>"More than a third (36%) of the crude oil produced today goes to fuel vehicles susceptible to electrification"</i><p><a href="https://www.electricclassiccars.co.uk/" rel="nofollow">https://www.electricclassiccars.co.uk/</a>
> renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero<p>This seems to be the crux of the argument. It certainly doesn't make sense to me. Obviously oil would find it hard to compete with electricity if it was free, but amortizing the cost of renewable power plants means that is unlikely any time soon.
Bloomberg has a study.[1] But they see electric vehicles hitting 50% of new sales about 20 years out.<p>The battery Ford F150 is two years out.. At that point, most consumer vehicles can potentially be electric, but the electrics will not be lower in initial cost yet. Bloomberg sees that happening in 2024.<p>Conversion may happen faster in China. Already, there are heavy incentives to go electric in Beijing. As in, you can get a car license much more easily.<p>[1] <a href="https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/" rel="nofollow">https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/</a><p>[2] <a href="https://thinkprogress.org/electric-vehicles-cheaper-gasoline-cars-e4c86bd2aebe/" rel="nofollow">https://thinkprogress.org/electric-vehicles-cheaper-gasoline...</a>
There is also another strong incentive for EVs in a renewable electricity scenario: smoothing the intermittence.<p>Nowadays, electricity grids try to incentivize consumers to use electricity at night more, as they try to smoothen the consumption baseline. With solar and wind, you have huge spikes of production and some gaps as well. Expect electricity to be very expensive at some time and very cheap (even free or negative price) at some other time. In such a context, storage capacity becomes very quickly a good investment.
The Forbes summary of the report it's covering says this only covers light duty vehicles and up to 40% of oil production. So still plenty of demand for oil for long haul ships and trucks I imagine.
I have questions about the environmental impact of EV batteries when it comes time to replace or dispose of them. I've read a few things, including an old statement by Tesla on the topic.[1]<p>> Tesla: "our lithium ion cells contain no heavy metals, nor any toxic materials. In fact, our cells and Energy Storage System, by law, could be disposed of by putting them in a landfill. However, we have no intention of landfilling our ESS." They go on to say a recycling plan is being implemented. Cool.<p>From an RoHS POV, sure, no heavy metals. But "no toxic materials" and "ready for landfill" blows my mind. Am I naive?<p>I'll assume Tesla is one of the Good Guys, but I predict worse players in the industry will take advantage of loose disposal regulations if there is short term benefit.<p>[1] <a href="https://www.tesla.com/blog/mythbusters-part-3-recycling-our-non-toxic-battery-packs" rel="nofollow">https://www.tesla.com/blog/mythbusters-part-3-recycling-our-...</a>
This writer works through some upper limits of vehicle electrification, based on cobalt reserves:<p><a href="https://syonyk.blogspot.com/2015/12/cobalt-requirements-for-global-electric.html" rel="nofollow">https://syonyk.blogspot.com/2015/12/cobalt-requirements-for-...</a>
> Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days As A Transport Fuel Are Numbered<p>I know the article was about cars, but fossil fuel will always have a place as aviation fuel. The only thing I can currently see ending that trend is widespread use of vacuum tunnel trains.
But all the small electric cars are just starting at the shamed price of 35/40k € ( Peugeot 208, VW ID.3 and so on).<p>That is a huge barrier of entrance. At the same price, one can buy a BMW or Audi. We need an economic model to let the EV industry boom
The question on my mind is what else will this freed up oil will be used for? One area could be cheaper fuel for aviation? More plastics? This of course ignores the environmental cost of continuing to use oil.
Great!<p>Now all we need is an electric car that fits the economic footprint of a gas car and provides decent range. I'll take a performance model, please.
Note that this is a "Forbes Contributor", i.e. a user of the Forbes blogging platform. I wish HN wouldn't label these with "forbes.com" because it's even shittier quality than Forbes.
Lithium batteries aren’t green at all. Going to EVs just changes the impact on the environment.<p>If we can’t solve the end of life issues with lithium batteries, we need to look at them as a technology adjacent to petroleum when it pertains to environmental impact. A true step forward would be an innovation of power storage itself, rather than the mechanisms around it. Build a better gas tank.
OPEC and the United States keep fossil fuels artificially inflated through constant wars and their barbaric sanctions against Iran & Venezuela. How much would a barrel of oil cost if they were allowed to sell on the free market?
The entire article is 100% bullshit and has nothing to do with EV per se. All you need to do is look at general electricity prices, which have been going up, not down, especially in the countries that have the highest renewable rate (Denmark or Germany).
<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Line-graph-of-average-electricity-price-for-households-for-2005-2015-in-EU-countries_fig3_323445413" rel="nofollow">https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Line-graph-of-average-el...</a><p>Once electricity prices start collapsing and battery capacity issues are resolved, I'll start believing the story.